The curse of the Bambino. The curse of Shoeless Joe Jackson. The Madden curse. The Kardashian curse. The curse of the MLB The Show cover athletes? There are indeed plenty of examples of cover athletes who have fallen on hard times post-cover appearance. But we here at Operation Sports had to discover the truth. Is there really a horrible curse, perhaps initiated by some baseball witch who lives deep in the bowels of Fenway — by the clicking of our gaming thumbs, something wicked pissah this way comes! Or is it just an unsubstantiated bit of baseball gaming lore?
Of course, given that cover athletes are typically selected because they’ve just had an impressive season, it’s reasonable to expect that there might be a drop-off in performance the following year. Perhaps this is the simple truth that spawned theories of a curse
Are MLB The Show’s Cover Athletes Cursed?
As each cover athlete (other than Ken Griffey Jr., who was not an active player when he appeared on the cover) is analyzed to see if they indeed played worse after appearing on the cover, we’ll get to the bottom of this mystery. We’ll render a verdict for each cover star, either cursed, blessed, or in a neutral/tossup state of limbo.
David Ortiz – 2006
Big Papi was the first cover athlete in 2006, and it’s not hard to see why. In 2005, he was an All-Star with a slash line of .300/.397/.604. He hit 47 dingers and had a league-high 148 RBIs. He finished second in AL MVP voting, narrowly losing out to Alex Rodriguez.
In 2006, after appearing on the cover of MLB The Show, Ortiz actually had an even better season, with a slash line of .287/.413/.636. He hit a whopping 54 homers and again was named an All Star.
Verdict: Blessed
David Wright – 2007
Legendary New York Mets third baseman David Wright was the cover athlete in 2007, after a stellar 2006 season, in which he made his first All-Star appearance, had a .912 OPS, .311 batting average, and 26 homers.
In 2007, post-cover appearance, he was again named an All-Star, and hit even better, with a .963 OPS and 30 dingers. He also won his first of two consecutive Gold Glove awards.
Verdict: Blessed
Ryan Howard – 2008
In 2007, Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard had a bit of a tumble after a spectacular 2006 season, although he was still by any measure an incredible player. His slash line was .268/.392/.584. He socked 47 dingers. He finished fifth in the NL MVP vote but was not named an All-Star.
Did his cover appearance rocket him back to the top of the league? Not exactly. In 2008, his numbers were slightly worse at .251/.339/.543. However, he did lead all of baseball with 48 homers and 146 RBIs. He finished second in NL MVP votes that year.
Verdict: Limbo
Dustin Pedroia – 2009
When he was named cover athlete, Dustin Pedroia was riding high. In 2008, he made his first All-Star appearance, was named the American League MVP, and won his first of four Gold Glove awards. He led all of baseball with 213 hits and 54 doubles.
So how did he do in 2009? Still good, but not quite as great. He was again named an All-Star but didn’t dominate the league like he did in ‘08. He had fewer hits, fewer doubles, his batting average took a tumble, and his OPS dropped by .050. Any team in 2009 would be happy to have Pedroia on their roster, but he definitely slumped compared to 2008.
Verdict: Cursed
Joe Mauer – 2010 & 2011
The only player to be featured on the cover of MLB The Show twice, Twins icon Joe Mauer had an incredible year in 2009. He was the AL MVP, an All-Star, led baseball with a whopping .365 batting average and .444 on-base percentage, and won a Gold Glove award. It was about as great as a baseball season can be.
So did he earn that second cover appearance in 2010? Eh, maybe. His OPS took a sizable dip, he hit less than half the number of homers, and while he was again an All-Star and Gold Glove winner, he was pretty far out of the MVP picture.
In 2011, after his second consecutive cover appearance, he fared even worse, playing in only 82 games with a paltry .729 OPS and no awards or honors to speak of.
Verdict: Cursed
Adrian Gonzalez – 2012
Gonzalez had a great 2011 season, with a league-leading 213 hits, an All-Star appearance, and a Gold Glove award with the Boston Red Sox.
2012 would prove to be a weird year for Gonzalez, who was traded to the Dodgers and struggled to match his 2011 numbers. He ended the season with significantly worse stats across the board and received no awards or honors. It wasn’t until 2014 that he recaptured some of his old magic.
Verdict: Cursed
Andrew McCutchen – 2013
In 2012, Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen was an All-Star and Gold Glove winner with a .953 OPS. Although his numbers weren’t quite as strong in 2013, he ended up being an All-Star and the National League MVP anyway, but he missed out on a Gold Glove. Although statistically he took a dip, winning MVP is a distinction that helps make up for sagging numbers.
Verdict: Limbo
Miguel Cabrera – 2014
Cabrera had an absolutely dominant 2013, leading all of baseball in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. He would be rewarded with his second straight AL MVP award and the fourth of his seven straight All-Star appearances.
When you’re as good as Cabrera was in 2013, it’s pretty much impossible to top it. His numbers decreased across the board, though he was still good enough to make it to the All-Star Game and finish ninth in AL MVP votes.
This verdict is a bit of a toss up between cursed and limbo, but to go from an utterly dominant player to a pretty good one definitely signals a decline. Cabrera would continue to be an excellent player for several more seasons but would never hit the highs of 2013.
Verdict: Cursed
Yasiel Puig – 2015
The Show took a chance on naming Yasiel Puig its cover athlete. Puig had a solid 2014 season, with a slash line of .296/.382/.480. But 2015 would be a career low for Puig, who has subsequently bounced around franchises and spent a lot of time in the minors. While Puig’s story of escaping Cuba for America is an inspiring one, his performance on the field definitely declined sharply after being named a cover athlete.
Verdict: Cursed
Josh Donaldson – 2016
2015 was probably Donaldson’s best year in baseball. He was named AL MVP, was an All-Star, and led all of baseball in runs scored. He hit 41 home runs and drove in 123 runs. His OPS was .939 and he developed a reputation as a solid and steady third baseman.
While his flashier stats (homers, RBIs, and batting average) weren’t quite as good in 2016, he nonetheless saw an uptick in on-base percentage and OPS. He was again named an All-Star and finished fourth in AL MVP voting. 2016 wasn’t really a decline from 2015, Donaldson just became a more disciplined hitter, drawing a career-high 109 walks.
Verdict: Limbo
Aaron Judge – 2018
2017 was Judge’s first full season in the majors, and it was one of the best rookie years in baseball history. He was not only Rookie of the Year, but also an All-Star and he finished second in AL MVP votes. He led the American League in home runs and walks with a 1.049 OPS.
2018 saw a dip in Judge’s numbers across the board, although he still made it to the All-Star Game. It would take a few years for Judge to regain his status as one of the most dominant players in the game. Although post-cover star Judge was not quite as good, he has since rebounded to become a Yankees legend.
Verdict: Limbo
Bryce Harper – 2019
Bryce Harper’s 2018 was definitely great but not spectacular. His slash line of .249/.393/.496 was good enough to get him into the All-Star Game but didn’t exactly light the world of baseball on fire.
In 2019, he packed his bags and headed to Philly, where he slowly but surely climbed back to the top, culminating with the National League MVP award in 2021 and a World Series appearance last year.
Verdict: Limbo
Javier Baez – 2020
This one did not pan out. Baez had a solid year in 2019, making it to the All-Star Game with an OPS of .847. But 2020 was a miserable year for Baez at the plate, although he did impress enough defensively to earn his first and only Gold Glove award. Not only was 2020 a sharp decline for Baez statistically, but it remains the worst season of his career thus far.
Verdict: Cursed
Fernando Tatis Jr. – 2021
2020 was a big breakout year for Slam Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. His slash line of .277/.366/.571 landed him fourth on the National League MVP voting list. But it was only a precursor of what was to come.
In 2021, Tatis Jr. skyrocketed to the top of the baseball world, hitting a career-high 42 home runs with an OPS of .975. He made his first All-Star appearance and helped transform San Diego into an NL giant.
The tricky issue with Tatis is how to factor in his 2022 season, which didn’t happen due to a combination of an injury and a performance-enhancing drug suspension. Tatis is due back this year, but his reputation may forever be sullied. Nonetheless, he did still get better as a player after making his cover appearance.
Verdict: Limbo
Shohei Ohtani – 2022
Shohei Ohtani is an especially interesting case to consider due to his unique status as a great hitter and pitcher. In 2021, at the plate, he had an OPS of .965 and led all of baseball with 8 triples. As a pitcher, he had an ERA of 3.18 with 156 strike outs.
The following season, he got even better as a starting pitcher, with a 2.33 ERA and 219 strike outs. He also led the American League in SO/9. At the plate, he took a bit of a dip, finishing the season with a .875 OPS. Given Ohtani’s unique status as a pitcher and hitter, we’re calling this one a draw as he improved at one position but declined a bit at the other.
Verdict: Limbo
The Final Verdict
- Cursed: 6
- Blessed: 2
- Limbo: 7
According to this rigorous scientific analysis, we have no choice but to conclude that most MLB The Show cover athletes either perform more or less at the same level or decline in performance in the season following their appearance on the game’s cover. Only two cover athletes could be proven to have demonstrably better seasons post-cover appearance, while a whopping 13 either got worse or stayed about the same. Of course, most of these players appear on the game’s cover because they’ve just had an exceptional season, meaning a drop-off in performance is likely. But not all of the game’s cover athletes were picked after a stellar year, especially more recent ones. So while deeming a cover appearance a “curse” might be a bit hyperbolic, a betting man would be smart to predict a slight but notable decline in performance.
The only thing left to do is send a team of ghost hunters into Fenway to look for that witch. I swear I saw her once, sitting on top of the Green Monster, cackling as Andrew McCutchen dropped a fly ball.
