Predicting the Highest Rated Pitchers in MLB The Show 25

With MLB The Show 25 just around the corner and the player ratings to be released sometime this week, I wanted to predict the ratings for the top pitchers in the league. If you haven’t seen our prediction for the position players, go back and read it here. There is a lot to get to in this article so let’s dive in!

Predicting The Highest Rated Pitchers In MLB The Show 25

97 Overall

• Tarik Skubal, SP, LHP, Tigers
• Chris Sale, SP, LHP, Braves

I don’t think anyone would have predicted this a year ago. Skubal put up a short but incredibly sweet 2023, but most people assumed it was a fluke and he would be a one-year wonder, and MLB The Show only gave him an 86 overall. We knew he had a high upside, but his 2.80 ERA and 0.896 WHIP that year seemed unsustainable. 

Nevertheless, Skubal turned in a tremendous 2024 season with 6.3 WAR (best in MLB), 18 wins (best in MLB), a 2.39 ERA (best in MLB), and 228 strikeouts (best in MLB), shocking the league and winning the AL Cy Young award.

Chris Sale’s story is even more shocking and unexpected. At the beginning of the year, the Cy Young race in the NL seemed to be a two-man race between Spencer Strider and Zack Wheeler, but fate had other plans. In Strider’s second start of the season, he tore the UCL in his right arm and needed season-ending surgery. With a power vacuum left at the top of the Braves rotation, a seemingly washed-up former star rose to the occasion.

You would be forgiven for thinking Chris Sale had retired at some point over the last five years. He has been a non-factor since 2019, only appearing 31 games during that time frame and putting up relatively pedestrian numbers. MLB The Show leaned heavily on his legacy to give him an 85 overall last year. This past year was different. In his first season as a Brave, he pitched like vintage Chris Sale and beat out Zack Wheeler for the NL Cy Young trophy.

These two lefty Cy Young award winners who shocked the league last year definitely deserve to be pitchers one and two on this list despite their inconsistent pasts. Those pasts should keep them from being rated any higher than 97, in my opinion.

96 Overall

• Zack Wheeler, SP, RHP, Phillies
• Paul Skenes, SP, RHP, Pirates

I personally think that we are in a bit of a pitcher rut right now — just look at the top of this list. There is no 99 or 98, and the two 97s aren’t established year-over-year stars (Sale was, but he hasn’t been one in five years). Most of the pitchers that are expected to top this game are either near the end of their career or just beginning it. There are not a lot of guys who are clearly at the top of their game, with one huge exception: Zack Wheeler.

Since 2021, Wheeler has been near the top of the Cy voting results in three different seasons. He has averaged an ERA well under 3.00, and his WHIP hasn’t topped 1.1 in any individual season. He has put up 24.6 WAR (6.2 WAR per season average). Wheeler is going to be 35 this season, but he doesn’t pitch like it. He put up his best ERA and WHIP of his career last season and should jump up at least a few overall points from his 93 overall in The Show 24.

The other 96 overall should definitely be Paul Skenes. I would be shocked if he wasn’t a top 5 pitcher in this game. I cannot understate how incredible his rookie season was. He pitched nine fewer games than Wheeler and Sale but still nipped at their heels in terms of Cy Young voting and WAR. His 5.9 WAR was just 0.2 below Wheeler and 0.3 below Sale. He was the only player who logged more than 120 innings pitched and had a sub-2.00 ERA. He was fantastic last season, and he will be a perennial Cy Young contender for as long as he stays healthy.

95 Overall

• Corbin Burnes, SP, RHP, Diamondbacks
• Emmanuel Clase, CP, RHP, Guardians

The other guy besides Wheeler who I believe is truly at the height of his career and is in the top tier of pitching in the league is Corbin Burnes. He’s been in the top 10 in Cy Young voting for five years in a row (winning it in 2021 with the Brewers), and his stats last year were in line with his impressive numbers before. 

Burnes was criminally underrated at 88 overall after a 2023 season in which his top-line numbers weren’t amazing, but he still pitched well. This year, they have to correct that error and give him a mid-90s rating. Despite being on his third team in as many years, Burnes still produces consistently elite numbers. 

Clase should be the top closer, and honestly, it isn’t very close. I actually think Clase has a chance at being the top-rated pitcher in the whole game. With not a ton of sure things at the top of the starting pitcher field, Clase’s insane performance last year makes it tempting to over-inflate his overall to the high 90s, but 95 seems fair for a closer with his production.

Clase had a 0.61 ERA and a 4.4 WAR in 74 appearances and 47 saves, insane numbers that led him to a third-place finish in the AL Cy Young vote.

94 Overall

• Spencer Strider, SP, RHP, Braves
• Framber Valdez, SP, LHP, Astros

Strider missed nearly all of last year and could miss a significant portion of this season as well. Given that he’s coming off of a nasty injury and hasn’t pitched since 2023, I think his ratings have to fall at least a bit. He was a 97 overall last year, with 99 velocity and 95 K/9 ratings. I believe that some of his physical numbers, like velocity, break, and stamina, may fall, as well as a significant drop in durability. Those ratings could push him out of the 95+ club.

Framber Valdez is usually insanely underrated in MLB despite being one of the most consistently productive pitchers in the league. He’s been in the Cy Young race four different times over the last five years and has gotten MVP votes in two of those years, including last year when he snagged one 10th place vote. Last year was his best in terms of WAR.

I really hope MLB The Show makes up for the years of disrespect they’ve given Valdez and finally awards him with an overall that makes sense. This might be more of a pipe dream than a prediction, though.

93 Overall

• Gerrit Cole, SP, RHP, Yankees

Cole was incredible in 2023 and was considered one of the elite arms in the game coming into last year. In 2024, he put up respectable numbers in 17 games, but it was certainly a step down from his great 2023 numbers. Given that Cole was a 95 overall last year and a 90 the year before, I think it’s fair to assume he’ll fall between those two numbers.

92 Overall

• Blake Snell, SP, LHP, Dodgers
• Cole Ragans, SP, LHP, Royals
• Tanner Scott, CP, LHP, Dodgers

I think MLB The Show has a personal vendetta against Snell for taking so long to get signed in free agency (of course, we’ll ignore how much Snell and SDS have worked together in the past to push this conspiracy). He was a free agent when the game came out last season, and they gave him a ludicrously low rating of 84 after winning the Cy Young award in 2023! I’m not as petty as San Diego Studios, though, so I’m giving him a rating that reflects his performance and ability.

Tanner Scott should tick up one overall point from his 91 overall last year after he put up a 4.0 WAR, albeit mainly with the Marlins in the first half of the season. Once he was dealt to the Padres, his numbers regressed, but I don’t expect him to be judged too harshly for that. Unless, of course, San Diego Studios decides to punish him for leaving the Padres for a division rival.

Ragans is getting a lot of hype after an impressive season as the Royals ace, finishing fourth in the AL Cy Young race and leading all AL pitchers in K/9. That hype could carry him over 90 overall.

91 Overall 

• Dylan Cease, SP, RHP, Padres
• Shota Imanaga, SP, LHP, Cubs

Cease had a bounce-back year with the Padres after a disappointing final season with the White Sox. Cease had the second-best season of his career and finally brought his WHIP down under 1.1 for the first time in his time in the majors. Cease was a beast and deserves to be a 90+ overall pitcher.

Another person who deserves to be rated this high is Shota Imanaga, and I stress that I believe this because I know this may be the most controversial pick in this article.

Imanaga has really gone under the radar outside of the Cubs fandom because he came to America at the same time as superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto and was overshadowed by Paul Skenes in the NL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards. Skenes’ accomplishments last year were so impressive that Shota’s incredible rookie performance was often glossed over.

Imanaga had a 15-3 record, a sub 3.00 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a strikeout per inning last year while also putting up the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the NL. Imanaga is 30 years old and in his prime. It would be a shame if they rated him in the mid-80s below 25-year-old Yamamoto.

90 Overall

• Logan Webb, SP, RHP, Giants
• Logan Gilbert, SP, RHP, Mariners
• Ryan Helsley, CP, RHP, Cardinals

When I looked at Webb’s stats from 2023 to 2024, I felt like the game should reflect a roughly two-point drop in overall, but then I went and looked back at what Webb was rated in The Show and gasped. He was rated 88 overall despite placing second in the NL Cy Young race in 2023 — what a terrible rating. They did the same thing to Snell, who won the award that year before leaving the Padres and joining the Giants. I think San Diego Studios might be biased toward the Padres and against their rivals upstate.

The other Logan in this section is Logan Gilbert, and he could crack the 90+ overall club just based on his incredible WHIP performance last year. He put up a 0.887 in that stat, which ranks 40th all-time (among pitchers who had more than 100 innings pitched in the season). With a WHIP like that, we could see his H/9 (65 last year) and BB/9 (81 last year) go up into the high 90s, lifting his overall into the low 90s.

Ryan Helsley’s WHIP got slightly worse last year, but he had a career year overall, and he should improve upon his 87 overall grade last season.

89 Overall

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, RHP, Dodgers
• Jacob deGrom, SP, RHP, Rangers 
• Hunter Greene, SP, RHP, Reds

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is often considered to be better than Shota Imanaga of the Cubs, but I beg to differ. I think Yamamoto still has a lot of development to do and potential left to unlock. Yamamoto should be under 90 overall to start, with room for him to grow into a high 90s player in your franchise mode.

Hunter Greene is in a similar boat. He is also one heck of a pitcher who you could argue deserves a much better overall rating based on his whopping 6.3 WAR he put up last season as well as the 2.75 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, but he’s only turning 25 this season, and we don’t know yet whether he can continue to consistently put up those numbers. His previous two seasons were very inconsistent and worrying. It would be a mistake for them to rate him above 89 overall because he has so much more room to grow as a pitcher.

A player who doesn’t have any room to grow because they hit their peak in 2018 and 2019 is Jacob degrom, who has yet to throw more than 100 innings in any individual season since then. The interesting thing about degrom is that he still pitches well when he is on the field. In the last five seasons, he’s only had one season where he had a 3.00 ERA or above, and he’s only had one season during that stretch where he had a 1.000 + WHIP. So, besides his durability, it would be unfounded for MLB The Show to decrease any of his ratings a sizable amount.

88 Overall

• Michael King, SP, RHP, Padres
• Max Fried, SP, LHP, Yankees

Both of these guys could argue they’re legitimate aces in MLB, but right now neither is set to lead their team’s rotation. With Cease in San Diego and Cole in New York, King and Fried represent two great second options for teams looking to go far in the playoffs.

King completed his transition to the starting rotation in San Diego last year after three solid years in the bullpen for the Yankees. He easily handled the bigger workload, putting up a sub 3.00 ERA season and finishing 7th in the NL Cy Young race.

Fried also significantly increased his workload from two years ago, going from 14 starts in 2023 to nearly an entire season last year. It wasn’t as great in terms of ERA, but he still put up a solid year with a 3.25 ERA and gave up only 7.5 H/9. I think the only thing that kept his rating low at only 85 was the lack of games. Now, with an entire season of good play last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if he rises up the pitcher rankings.

87 Overall 

• Zac Gallen, SP, RHP, Diamondbacks
• Seth Lugo, SP, RHP, Royals
• Ronel Blanco, SP, RHP, Astros
• Tyler Glasgow, SP, RHP, Dodgers
• Pablo Lopez, SP, RHP, Twins
• Aaron Nola, SP, RHP, Phillies

Zac Gallen (91 overall), Tyler Glasnow (90 overall), Pablo Lopez (88 overall), and Aaron Nola (87 overall) are all solid veterans who were rated high last year and had varying levels of struggles last year. Gallen went from two straight seasons of top-five finishes in the NL Cy Young race to posting a 3.65 ERA and 1.26 WHIP last year, representing his second straight season of diminishing returns despite only turning 29 this year. Glasnow was overrated last year based on pure hype, so his ratings should likely fall even though he put up similar numbers in 2023.

Lopez fell out of Cy Young contention last year after a seventh-place finish in 2023 and could fall a few spots. I think, given his status as the Twins’ ace, we may see him drop only one or two points. Aaron Nola might jump up one or two points given his improved 2024 performance, but he also gave up the most home runs in the NL and struggled at times with walks, so he may stay at 87 overall.

Ronel Blanco had a fantastic season last year, and I was tempted to put him higher on this list, but his low name recognition and mid-level spot on the Astros rotation will likely suppress his ratings despite his 4.5 WAR and 2.80 ERA while only giving up 6.1 H/9.

86 Overall

• Kyle Bradish, SP, RHP, Orioles
• Kirby Yates, RP, RHP, Dodgers
• Bryce Miller, SP, RHP, Mariners 
• Sonny Gray, SP, RHP, Cardinals
• Eury Perez, SP, RHP, Marlins
• Shane McClanahan, SP, LHP, Rays
• Luis Castillo, SP, RHP, Mariners

Bradish would be an 88 overall, just like he was last year, but he is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery that cut his 2024 season to only 8 (great) games. Two other guys who had Tommy John surgery last year were Eury Perez and Shane McClanahan. Perez is set to return sometime midseason and thus will likely fall a few points. McClanahan, on the other hand, had a much smoother recovery and is set to start Opening Day, which means it’s possible that his 87 overall from last year only drops a point or two.

Kirby Yates is coming off a career year at age 37 and was snatched up by the Dodgers in the offseason. His position as one of the top relievers in that loaded bullpen and his performance last year should bounce him into the 85+ overall club. Another pitcher with some juice left in his arm is Sonny Gray, who was rated 89 overall after finishing second place in the AL Cy Young race in his final year with the Twins. His 2024 season with the Cardinals was good but not great, and it is reasonable to think that he will drop at least three overall points. 

The Mariners have arguably one of the best under-the-radar pitching staffs in the league. With Logan Gilbert leading the charge, they also have veteran Luis Castillo and up-and-coming superstar Bryce Miller, who will likely land in the 85 to 90 overall territory. 

85 Overall

• Clayton Kershaw, SP, LHP, Dodgers
• Justin Verlander, SP, RHP, Giants
• Kevin Gausman, SP, RHP, Blue Jays
• Justin Steele, SP, LHP, Cubs
• Kodai Senga, SP, RHP, Mets
• Mason Miller, CP, RHP, Athletics
• Cade Smith, RP, RHP, Guardians
• Bryan Abreu, RP, RHP, Astros

Kershaw and Verlander are not the same type of pitchers they used to be, but their legacy and longevity should keep their ratings relatively high. Justin Steele, Kodai Senga, and Bryan Abreu were all mid-80 overall players last season, and their play in 2024 was decent but not spectacular, so they may wind up back in the mid-80s once again this year.

Kevin Gausman was rated a 90 overall in The Show 24 after three solid seasons, putting up ace-like numbers, but last year his stats took a dive with him regressing in every facet of pitching, going from 3.4 WAR in 2023 to 0.9 WAR last year. His overall could plummet quite a ways, but given his previous three seasons of consistent play, I think his overall may stay relatively high, reflecting the chance that he may have a bounce-back year this season.

Mason Miller and Cade Smith are both incredibly impressive young bullpen arms who shined in their first full seasons in the league. They both put up 2.4 WAR with less than 80 innings pitched and caught the attention of the whole league. Cade Smith was ninth in Cy Young Voting, and Mason Miller was an all-star. Mason Miller obviously has one of the fastest fastballs in the league, touching 103.7 MPH a number of times last season. His velocity rating should easily be 99.

Honorable Mentions

• Garrett Crochet, SP, LHP, Red Sox
• Roki Sasaki, SP, RHP, Dodgers
• George Kirby, SP, RHP, Mariners
• Tanner Houck, SP, RHP, Red Sox