Home
News Post

Please remember, there are 16 weeks left.

In watching some of the trends in the Operation Sports Fantasy Football market, I'm seeing some interesting things. Checking the waiver wire and trade offers in other leagues, I'm wondering if I'm playing with a bunch of Chicken Littles, because it seems like everyone thinks the sky is falling.

Sure, Stephen Jackson looked terrible. And, yes, Willie Parker was dreadful. But the swings in the market that are going on are due to players overreacting after just an hour of football. Let's take some examples:

Willie Parker - Fast Willie was given the nod by coach Mike Tomlin to be the man in The Steel City, then he goes out and drops a whopping 19 yards in the season opener. His price has gone from a season high $18.40 to a season low $13.93 currently. But remember that the Titans are one of the NFL's stronger defenses and the Steelers were in a bunch of 3rd down situations late in the game that pushed Willie to the sideline. Willie isn't Clinton Portis and he may not even be Ray Rice. But right now he's going for about the same price as Lendale White - and that doesn't make much sense.

Stephen Jackson - How bad did the Rams look Sunday? Ugh. But Stephen Jackson is about the only good thing going for them. He's going to be the feature back with no concerns for a time share. He'll catch passes and he'll score. Should you watch week 2 to see if the Rams, and Jackson, get on the road to recovery? Absolutely. But he's dropped off $5 in less than a week ($39 to $34.08) and may really be worth somwhere in the middle. But don't be shocked if he plays well in Washington this week and his price gets jacked back up. I don't think things could go much worse...

Deangelo Williams - After a meager 37-yard mess of a Sunday, Williams' price dropped from $40 to $34.48. Please don't forget that Williams had a TD on Sunday and is going up against a Falcons defense that gave up the 8th highest Fantasy points to running backs last season.

Jay Cutler - Cutler was never exactly on my hot list. But his price has been slashed from $30 to $20 in just a week. Green Bay is one of the most underrated defensive units in the game. He's not going to play against them every week, and he will get 2 against the Lions and will have out of division games against the Bengals, Browns, and Rams. That's 1/3 of his remaining schedule as cake.

Again, evaluating players each week is essential. But making season-changing decisions based on just one week is risky. Don't get caught in the trap.

To talk to the OS community about OSFF, click here. To sign up for OSFF and win great weekly prizes, click here!

Member Comments
# 1 The Chef @ 09/17/09 03:12 PM
Some interesting points by lgkeeper but I think bill2451 hit the nail on the head, unless you are carrying reserves then I dont see why someone would want Parker this week when hes going up against the Bears defense. Cutler is going up against the Steelers so why would I want him now? Steven Jackson against Washington is a good matchup? How about Clinton Portis against the Rams defense? That same defense made Julius Jones look like a stud last week, I dont see how Jackson is going to fair on a one dimensional team going up against a defense that now sports Haynesworth in the middle. DeAngelo is an option but until I see that he wont be splitting touches with Jonathan Stewart so much I dont see how the guy is worth the price tag he currently has.
 
# 2 CreatineKasey @ 09/17/09 03:35 PM
I agree with bill2451 also. My view of this system so far is that playing matchups is to your advantage. You just need to make the transaction before everyone else. It only costs $0.10 to make that transaction, and when you are profiting DOLLARS with some of your guys, it makes no sense to hold onto people in bad streaks or matchups.
 
# 3 The Chef @ 09/17/09 03:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CreatineKasey
I agree with bill2451 also. My view of this system so far is that playing matchups is to your advantage. You just need to make the transaction before everyone else. It only costs $0.10 to make that transaction, and when you are profiting DOLLARS with some of your guys, it makes no sense to hold onto people in bad streaks or matchups.
Agree, week one I actually carried a full roster including 3 bench players and I finished 338th and while some of that can be attributed to not picking the right players its also due to having money tied up in guys who were sitting on the bench contributing nothing to the teams performance.
 
# 4 jmik58 @ 09/17/09 07:18 PM
I agree with others that the follow-up comments have it right on.

If I drop my entire team and sign players who have good matchups this week, most of them will do well. Subsequently this will lead to their value going up. Then, near the end of the next week after I've racked up a lot of stock value; I drop my roster for better matchups (and quite often lesser prices). If played correctly, I see the "owners" who play the matchups correctly as being the winners of this contest...and the ones with the largest bank role in the end.

My goal is to be one of these people who is able to purchase a stacked lineup at all positions later on in the season. Will it work? Who knows. But I think it's a good strategy as pointed out by previous comments.
 
# 5 bukktown @ 09/18/09 01:09 PM
Its not even getting enough money to stack your team at every position thats important. I think the only 2 locks right now are Brees and Brady (maybe Moss). I would sell AP in a heartbeat when he`s going against the Steelers and Ravens. Every week its about who is playing the Rams and Lions first and foremost.
 
# 6 jmik58 @ 09/18/09 02:03 PM
bukktown... good points. It really is about who is playing the Rams/Lions.

However, I don't have enough cash to buy every matchup I want for this week... so it is important to build that up, in my opinion.
 
# 7 The Chef @ 09/18/09 08:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmik58
bukktown... good points. It really is about who is playing the Rams/Lions.

However, I don't have enough cash to buy every matchup I want for this week... so it is important to build that up, in my opinion.
But Ive found that if your quick to buy players with good matchups when the market opens they will increase in price anyways so if they have a bad matchup next week and you are quick to sell at market open then you will still build that cash flow up while remaining competitive. Week 1 I bought a slew of low priced guys I thought would increase in value and while that worked and got me a decent cash flow it also landed me in 339th place approx. so that clearly wasnt a good strategy.
 
# 8 bukktown @ 09/19/09 01:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmik58
bukktown... good points. It really is about who is playing the Rams/Lions.

However, I don't have enough cash to buy every matchup I want for this week... so it is important to build that up, in my opinion.
I know what you are saying. If I had about $20 more dollars I would have Portis starting at RB for me this week. But it will be impossible to get a stacked roster and still play matchups. Once those escalating transaction fees kick in, things will start to get interesting I think.
 
# 9 jmik58 @ 09/19/09 02:59 AM
The Clown...I see what you're saying about timely selling regardless of performance. It sucks that your strategy didn't pay off for you in week 1, but personally I still think it's one of the better ways to play this contest. Some people are going to guess right on matchups and others aren't. Your idea of great matchups might not be the same as mine, etc. etc. Either way, it's all for fun so we might as well try what feels right.
 
# 10 Antec @ 09/21/09 12:09 AM
My strategy is to use these early weeks to try to build up as much dollar value as possible, then hopefully dominate later on. I'm carrying a full bench currently and have a $240 team value.
 
# 11 ithrowds @ 09/21/09 12:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antec
My strategy is to use these early weeks to try to build up as much dollar value as possible, then hopefully dominate later on. I'm carrying a full bunch currently and have a $240 team value.
damn O_O nice.

I'm playing it week by week and looking at matchups, usually if one of my higher valued guys has a good week i'll sell indiscriminantly though.
 
# 12 The Chef @ 09/21/09 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antec
My strategy is to use these early weeks to try to build up as much dollar value as possible, then hopefully dominate later on. I'm carrying a full bench currently and have a $240 team value.
Hopefully it works for you, Ive got a value of 243.31 and I dont have a single player on my bench. The downside to building value is the transaction fees increase big time, I think Im paying 0.75 per transaction now as opposed to the 0.10 I was paying previously. The increase is going to make it tougher and tougher to carry a bench with the idea of flipping them and making more money as now a guy has to go up in value by atleast 0.75 to even have a shot at breaking even.
 

Post A Comment
Only OS members can post comments
Please login or register to post a comment.