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Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter, the oft-cited analyst, is once again discussing the EA/TT saga. His latest prediction comes on the heels of Take-Two's Q2 sales results, which were released yesterday. Pachter believes even if EA raised its offering to Take-Two, "by a modest amount (likely $2 or so), and attempt to complete a friendly deal," Take-Two would turn down the offer.

However, while a deal would not be completed in the near future (think this fiscal year, ending October 31) once no other suitable offers arrived from any other companies and EA/TT had time to cool down, Pachter believes EA and Take-Two would renew talks and hammer out a deal.

Ultimately, he believes Take-Two will sell because once Grand Theft Auto IV's sales begin to dwindle as the fiscal year winds down, Take-Two will not be able to meet or exceed the sales figures of 2008.

It's a logical thought since he must assume other companies realize GTA can only happen every so often (minus GTA III to Vice City which happened in one year) thus EA would still be the company that gets the most out of the deal with the synergy (see: monopolization) of sports products.

Speaking of the sports products, Take-Two's line of sports games are once again going to be in the red not the black once the end of the fiscal year rolls around. This fact was overshadowed by TT's $100 million profit through Q2, but is important to note (this is a sports site after all).

"The primary reasons for our lack of profitability [in sports] were lower attach rates than we expected on the increased installed base of Xbox 360 and PS3 hardware, and we made some changes in the release schedule that obviously reduced the revenue a bit," stated Chairman Strauss Zelnick.

It's clearly been an up and down year for TT's sports games, as there's been cancellations (All-Pro Football), developer fluctuation (Ben Brinkman leaving 2K LA, MLB 2K and NHL 2K changing developers) and the aforementioned release date changes (Prizefighter and Top Spin 3). The one consistency has been the NBA 2K series, but moving forward the other titles must return to prominence in order to keep Zelnick saying, "we're committed to the sports business, and we feel like we're going to get there."

How they get there? By making quality games and shipping to more territories.

Pachter: Take-Two To Reject Higher Bid [Gamasutra]
2K Sports Not Expected to be Profitable in Fiscal '08 [GameDaily]

Member Comments
# 1 spit_bubble @ 06/06/08 03:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slizeezyc
...thus EA would still be the company that gets the most out of the deal with the synergy (see: monopolization) of sports products...
Sony and/or Microsoft would benefit acquiring Take Two just as much, if not more, than EA would.
 
# 2 elprez98 @ 06/06/08 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kcxiv
Yeah, they are chainging developers to Visual Concepts, best sports developing studio there is. IMO thats a positive.

They're doing baseball too now? There is hope then.
 
# 3 allBthere @ 06/06/08 11:38 PM
Patcher was on record saying that there was NO WAY the deal would not happen before the launch of GTA4. He needs to shut his mouth, he is not an 'expert' and his opinion shouldn't be relied upon more than any random person.

I'm sick of the fact that he somehow still has clout with the media in that they care what he says.
 
# 4 bukktown @ 06/07/08 02:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slizeezyc

It's clearly been an up and down year for TT's sports games, as there's been cancellations (All-Pro Football), developer fluctuation (Ben Brinkman leaving 2K LA, MLB 2K and NHL 2K changing developers) and the aforementioned release date changes (Prizefighter and Top Spin 3). The one consistency has been the NBA 2K series, but moving forward the other titles must return to prominence in order to keep Zelnick saying, "we're committed to the sports business, and we feel like we're going to get there."
There has been so much turmoil its easy to forget that they cancelled the College Hoops series as well.
 
# 5 ChaseB @ 06/07/08 03:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bukktown
There has been so much turmoil its easy to forget that they cancelled the College Hoops series as well.
Ha that's a good point, I could have added another comma and put that in as well.
 
# 6 daflyboys @ 06/07/08 10:33 AM
I would really like to see M$ bring TT into the fold. M$ is easily villified and understandably so, but they have made some good sports titles themselves in the past along with some interesting non-sports ones. I think TT could give EA a run for their money with M$ dollars and muscle behind them. I think the NFL would take a different look at this when it comes time to re-up once again, especially if EA produces a continual stagnant product year in and out as they have. The NFL is largely about image.....and they don't need any poor representation out there.
 
# 7 jmood88 @ 06/08/08 12:10 AM
I wish I could get Pachter's job. He gets to just say whatever he wants and get paid for "consulting".
 

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