I love Arena football, and I would buy an Arena game in a snap, but I don't think such a micro-managed game like this would be commercially viable. For better or for worse,games need to appeal to casual gamers
An AFL game could be highly successful if they can capture the "in-your-face" excitement of an actual game.
I think Backbreaker should of went this route for a follow on to their initial release. I believe with a few tweaks in gameplay and having the AFL license, would of helped boost sales for them.
The allure of an AFL game is the up close and personal experience fans get when they attend a game. There really isn't a bad seat in a smaller type arena vs. an NFL stadium. Another aspect fans enjoy is the high scoring that is generally displayed at each game. Combining all these elements would make for a great game. A different take on football from the NCAA and MADDEN versions.
Heck, 2k Sports should capitalize on this. That would be one fantastic game!
Stay away from a league licensed game for Jeebus sake people! A football game can succeed with generic teams so long as there is plenty of functionality in game management, a good football engine, and robust online & community features. No company is willing to invest in it though. APF & BB didn't offer all those, which is why they ultimately failed.