Official 2007 Toronto Blue Jays Topic - "Flying High"

[theaub]

Last year, I did player by player previews. This year, I'm going to build the ultimate lineup for this team.

The first two goals of creating a good lineup:

1) Try to interchange lefties and righties. This will be very tough for the Jays, who, at the moment, only have two players who can bat from the left side (Zaun and Overbay) in the lineup. Therefore, this one is going to be avoided.

2) Make sure to avoid "clogging." This means that you don't want to have back to back hitters with common characteristics. Using the Jays as an example, hitting Troy Glaus and Frank Thomas 4-5 wuold be stupid, because it would a) create a very high number of strikeouts, b) create a large number of double plays, and c) clog the basepaths for the #6 hitter, who would either be a speedy Alex Rios or a not-as-speedy by still fast Lyle Overbay.

With that in place, I'll list the four major characteristics of each spot, and then put them in use.

Leadoff:
The leadoff position is very important, as it is the table-setter, per se. You know that there are going to be at least 162 instances where the leadoff man starts an inninng, and therefore, you need him to get on base. That makes the first priority on base percentage, as you need him to get on right away. As well, speed is important, as is extra base power. If your leadoff man can hit a double, that should be a run every time.
Jays leadoff: Alex Rios (17 HR, 82 RBI, 15 SB, .302/.349/.516 AVG/OBP/SLG)
OK, this is probably the toughest decision to make, as it comes down to Reed Johnson and Rios. However, I can't feasibly expect Johnson to have a .390 OBP again (.360 would be reasonable), and Rios will be in the .355-.370 range). As well, he is probably the fastest player on the team, so he can steal some bases. Finally, there is no doubt that Rios has more than enough power to get a few extra base hits. The one drawback is that he might have too much power, but the Jays have a good enough lineup that he can hit in the #1 slot.

2nd Hitter:
The #2 hitter is a slot that has to filled by a guy who has the ability to do two things: not strike out, and avoid double plays. The one thing you don't want as a manager is for your leadoff guy to get on, and then have someone who GIDP's a ton. As well, hit-and-run's are important, so having a hitter who can make good contact is important.
Jays second hitter: Reed Johnson (12, 49, 8, .319/.390/.479)
Johnson had the ultimate breakout year of anyone in the majors last year, going fro 4th outfielder to the top 10 in American League hitting. The major advantages he holds over Rios in being a better fit for the #2 spot: a better strikeout ratio (he K's once out of every 6 at bats, compared to 5 for Rios), being a better bunter, and having the so-called "bat control" to avoid double plays. Other candidates here included Aaron Hill and Lyle Overbay.

3rd Hitter:
The Blue Jays' third hitter should be the best hitter. The one with the high average, high on-base, good power, all of that. One of the key things, once again, is to avoid clogging. Therefore:
Jays third hitter: Frank Thomas (39, 114, 0, .270/.381/.545)
Now, let me just say that if John Gibbons ever did this, he would be DESTROYED by the Toronto media. I mean, utterly destroyed. However, Thomas is the best fit for the Jays in the 3-hole. First of all, he has the on-base to produce walks and create situations for the #4-6 hitters. Secondly, he has the power to create chaos if something's left over the plate. And finally, his lack of speed really doesn't matter in the 3rd spot. The only argument that could be made is that he might turn a couple doubles into singles that will hurt the cleanup hitter, and that's why this will never happen. Too bad the good far outweighs that one detractant (and we actually deal with that later).

Cleanup:
The cleanup spot isn't what it was 15 years ago. You need someone who can not only hit for power, but also be good enough to set up RBI opportunities for the number 5 and number 6 batters. Therefore, OPS is the one key stat.
Jays cleanup hitter: Vernon Wells (32, 103, 17, .303/.357/.542)
The addition of Thomas creates one important thing, the ability for the Jays to have 4 legitimate home run hitters from the 3-6 slots in the lineup. The Jays haven't had that since 2001, when their whole team hit 30+ homeruns (or so it seemed). Wells has the power to drive in the first three hitters with the deep blast, and also has the ability to create situations for the hitters behind him. As well, the cleanup spot sees the most RISP than any other spot (the 5th hitter sees the second-most). You want someone with a high average just as much as someone with a lot of power.

5th hitter:
Bill James says the #5 hitter should "consist of a batter who produces a high amount of line drives." Why? Well, as we said above, the #5 hitter sees a lot of runners in scoring position, so he should have the ability to drive the ball to the gaps. After that, it becomes wide open. This is where preference starts to set in for lineups.
Jays fifth hitter: Lyle Overbay (22, 92, 5, .312/.372/.508)
The main reason that Frank Thomas is hitting third is actually Lyle Overbay. Think about it: Thomas' major liability is his speed. Therefore, you don't want someone who hits a ton of doubles hitting after him. Voila, Lyle Overbay hit 46 doubles last year. While Wells also hit 40, he is also a much better power hitter, and will hit far more bombs than Overbay. Due to this, you want someone with a lot of speed batting before a gap hitter. If Wells can score from first on those doubles to left-centre, its a big plus for the Jays. Overbay is also a lefty, which is good.

6th hitter
This is right about where the guidelines end (they come back for the #9 hitter). What do you want out of this position? Well, power is always nice. But other than that, you just want someone who can hit.
Jays sixth hitter: Troy Glaus (38, 104, 3, .252/.355/.513)
Its not often teams have the ability to put a 100 RBI guy 6th in the lineup, but the Jays can, and should. Glaus is what I'd like to call "the finisher." He's either going to finish the other team's pitcher by hitting one 700 feet, or he's going to end the inning by striking out/grounding into a double play. Therefore, you want him in a spot where he can still produce RBI's, but where it won't be a huge deal if he K's. The one problem with this is that Glaus might not take being moved down in the lineup to kindly.

7th hitter
The 7th hitter has one criteria: don't be like the #6 or #8 hitters. Avoiding the clogging is very important. However, it would be nice to get some power in this spot, so the pitcher has to work all the way through 1-7. Therefore:
Jays seventh hitter: Gregg Zaun (12, 40, 0, .272/.363/.462)
The first thing I should say is that I was really considering hitting Zaun in the 9-hole, since he can act as a second leadoff hitter. Then I realized that he's really slow, so I looked at his power numbers. Did you know he hit 12 HR's? I sure didn't. Anyhow, Zaun can keep innings alive with his OBP, and he also creates a matchup problem, as the 4-7 hitters go R-L-R-L. Now, this also means that the 8-9-1-2-3-4 hitters go R-R-R-R-R-R, but we'll keep that on the down low for now.

8th hitter
The #8 hitter should be the weakest hitter on the team. The #7 hitter should still be able to drive in the remnants of what the top of the order started. The #9 hitter should be able to set the table for the top. Therefore, any real liability you have should be placed 8th.
Jays eighth hitter: Royce Clayton (2, 40, 14, .258/.315/.348)
Clayton has one thing going for him: speed. If he somehow finds a way to reach base, then he can run. Otherwise, it gets ugly. I was thinking of putting Hill above him, but the extra 20 PA's Hill would get over a season would only equate to about 3 runs, which isn't even close to a win.

9th hitter
When we all played baseball, you put the worst hitter 9th, since you wanted him to get the least number of at-bats. Now, the #9 hitter is very important. He needs to be able to reach base, so the leadoff hitters have something to work with. Especially looking at the previous 8 hitters, since we have someone who can mash hitting first, you want to get someone on so Rios hits something more than a solo homer. Since there's only one person left...
Jays ninth hitter: Aaron Hill (6, 50, 5, .291/.349/.386)
Hill is the prototypical #9 hitter. A pretty high OBP, and an OPS in the .725-.775 range. Hill also has a bit of power, which is never a bad thing, as anyone would want the leadoff man to come up with a RISP. Hill also doesn't strike out, which means that he can advance runners for the top of the order.

So what does that make the lineup look like:

1) Rios, RF
2) Johnson, LF
3) Thomas, DH
4) Wells, CF
5) Overbay, 1B
6) Glaus, 3B
7) Zaun, C
8) Clayton, SS
9) Hill, 2B

Woop...lets get some baseball started!

[Vince]

our lineup is sick

[SPTO]

Good lineup but can you make an argument against this?

Reed leading off and Rios batting second (mainly because I think you sacrifice too much by havng Rios hitting leadoff from the power potential side)

I think this will be an interesting season. We have the lineup that's capable of winning in the East but our starting pitching will need a wing and a prayer to be good enough to lead us to the playoffs.

I do like what JP did by signing as much starting pitching as possible and hoping that one or two of those guys can stick and provide some quality starts. I'm slow on this but I learned that we signed Victor Zambrano who won't be back until June or July but he could be a real sleeper signing IMO.

The bullpen is a lot younger this year but the young guys are poised to succeed rather then fail.

Overall I think this team has the potential to jump up and bite either the Yankees or BoSox in the butt and make the playoffs as a WC. It's very iffy tho so this isn't an official prediction from me but rather a wishful thinking deal.

[theaub]

Quote: Originally Posted by SPTO

Good lineup but can you make an argument against this? Reed leading off and Rios batting second (mainly because I think you sacrifice too much by havng Rios hitting leadoff from the power potential side)

Rios should get on more and has more speed. Johnson also has a bit of power, so its not that bad.

Quote: Originally Posted by SPTO

I think this will be an interesting season. We have the lineup that's capable of winning in the East but our starting pitching will need a wing and a prayer to be good enough to lead us to the playoffs. I do like what JP did by signing as much starting pitching as possible and hoping that one or two of those guys can stick and provide some quality starts. I'm slow on this but I learned that we signed Victor Zambrano who won't be back until June or July but he could be a real sleeper signing IMO. The bullpen is a lot younger this year but the young guys are poised to succeed rather then fail. Overall I think this team has the potential to jump up and bite either the Yankees or BoSox in the butt and make the playoffs as a WC. It's very iffy tho so this isn't an official prediction from me but rather a wishful thinking deal.

I can't see the Jays being better than last year. I'd be surprised if they end up with 85 wins.

[SPTO]

Quote: Originally Posted by theaub

I can't see the Jays being better than last year. I'd be surprised if they end up with 85 wins.

That's my realistic view this year but ST hasn't even started! Let me be optimsitic

[asianflow]

If I was the manager, my batting order would be:

1) Johnson
2) Rios
3) Wells
4) Thomas
5) Glaus
6) Overbay
7) Hill
8) Zaun
9) Clayton

It's too bad Clayton is a complete sinkhole that will hurt the team. The Jays should have went after Marcus Giles when the Braves were shopping him around. Then Hill would have moved back to SS for this season.

While the Jays should score a lot of runs, the pitching is way too weak to compete. Every projected starter spent time on the DL last season.

I still feel like the Jays should have traded away Wells for a package of good young players. Rios could have shifted to CF and Johnson to RF. Stop gap players like Cliff Floyd and Trot Nixon were available for peanuts. This would help Adam Lind to get more seasoning at AAA before being called up.

[y2dan]

Quote: Originally Posted by asianflow

If I was the manager, my batting order would be: 1) Johnson 2) Rios 3) Wells 4) Thomas 5) Glaus 6) Overbay 7) Hill 8) Zaun 9) Clayton It's too bad Clayton is a complete sinkhole that will hurt the team. The Jays should have went after Marcus Giles when the Braves were shopping him around. Then Hill would have moved back to SS for this season. While the Jays should score a lot of runs, the pitching is way too weak to compete. Every projected starter spent time on the DL last season. I still feel like the Jays should have traded away Wells for a package of good young players. Rios could have shifted to CF and Johnson to RF. Stop gap players like Cliff Floyd and Trot Nixon were available for peanuts. This would help Adam Lind to get more seasoning at AAA before being called up.

I agree with your batting order, for the most part. I don't know about Frank Thomas hitting cleanup though. Do you really want Thomas on base when somebody like Overbay is at bat? Thomas can barely run...

Re: Marcus Giles, I'm almost certain that Giles wanted to go to San Diego to play with his brother, Brian. With that said, unless JP decided to pay him a ridiculous amount of money, I don't think the Jays would have had any chance in signing him.

Re: Floyd and Nixon, I don't know if I would want either of them as a starting OF this upcoming season. Neither of them have shown any ability to stay healthy over the past few seasons and they're not getting any younger. I think they'd likely necessitate the Jays calling up Adam Lind.

Overall, the fate of this team lies in pitching. If Halladay, Burnett can stay healthy, and one of Ohka, Thomson, Zambrano can step up and perform like they did when healthy, I think the Jays have a solid chance at competing for a playoff spot. Every team has question marks, so who knows. Like SPTO said, let's try to remain optimistic. After all, it's not even March yet.

[SPTO]

AF your lineup is good but i don't think it'd work in the long run just because of Thomas' lack of speed. The more I see theaub's lineup card the better I like it mainly because it looks a lot like an NL lineup with Clayton and Hill bringing up the rear. I'm sure 50 games into the season it'll be Hill and Clayton bringing up the rear as I think Hill will hit a lot better then old man Royce.

Unlike most NL lineups this lineup has legit punch to it but there's that flexibility there now that SHOULD allow the Jays to perform better in NL parks during the interleague schedule.

[asianflow]

Quote: Originally Posted by y2dan

I agree with your batting order, for the most part. I don't know about Frank Thomas hitting cleanup though. Do you really want Thomas on base when somebody like Overbay is at bat? Thomas can barely run... Re: Marcus Giles, I'm almost certain that Giles wanted to go to San Diego to play with his brother, Brian. With that said, unless JP decided to pay him a ridiculous amount of money, I don't think the Jays would have had any chance in signing him. Re: Floyd and Nixon, I don't know if I would want either of them as a starting OF this upcoming season. Neither of them have shown any ability to stay healthy over the past few seasons and they're not getting any younger. I think they'd likely necessitate the Jays calling up Adam Lind. Overall, the fate of this team lies in pitching. If Halladay, Burnett can stay healthy, and one of Ohka, Thomson, Zambrano can step up and perform like they did when healthy, I think the Jays have a solid chance at competing for a playoff spot. Every team has question marks, so who knows. Like SPTO said, let's try to remain optimistic. After all, it's not even March yet.

Thomas is going to clog the bases no matter who hits behind him. Thomas is more likely to hit for a better average than Glaus so that's why I like him in the cleanup spot. Unlike Glaus, Thomas also doesn't have wild splits against LHP and RHP.

Regrading Marcus Giles, he wasn't a free agent. Considering the Braves got nothing in return, it's obvious it wouldn't have taken more than a player like McGowan or Purcey to get him. Giles was heading into his final year of arbitration, so if the Jays traded for him, Giles would have no choice but to play for the Jays unless he retired.

Oh yeah batting Thomas 3rd and Wells 4th would be foolish. Some of Well's double and triples will be reduced to singles and doubles because Thomas is running in front of him. Wells should also bat ahead of Thomas and Glaus because he's a threat to steal and to take an extra base on a base hit.

[SPTO]

Quote: Originally Posted by asianflow

Oh yeah batting Thomas 3rd and Wells 4th would be foolish. Some of Well's double and triples will be reduced to singles and doubles because Thomas is running in front of him. Wells should also bat ahead of Thomas and Glaus because he's a threat to steal and to take an extra base on a base hit.

True but I don't like having similar style hitting back to back. It's better IMO to spread Thomas and Glaus out.

Eh we'll see what Gibby comes up with.