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Old 09-12-2010, 07:32 PM   #1
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Coin Tosses

I have won 13 coin tosses in a row. What is wrong w/ my system? Is this a bug, or have I just been getting extremely lucky?

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Old 09-12-2010, 07:43 PM   #2
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You would think that you would have a 50/50 shot with only two chances, but since you get to choose before every 50/50 chance the odds are skewed. It's very possible to have a streak of 13.
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Old 09-12-2010, 08:23 PM   #3
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Re: Coin Tosses

Do you always receive the ball?
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Old 09-12-2010, 08:26 PM   #4
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Re: Coin Tosses

Quote:
Originally Posted by albert_24
Do you always receive the ball?
No. I always elect to kick.
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Old 09-13-2010, 12:25 AM   #5
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Re: Coin Tosses

Quote:
Originally Posted by ace23
No. I always elect to kick.
The CPU always elects to receive.
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Old 09-13-2010, 01:38 PM   #6
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Re: Coin Tosses

Quote:
Originally Posted by jaymee13
You would think that you would have a 50/50 shot with only two chances, but since you get to choose before every 50/50 chance the odds are skewed. It's very possible to have a streak of 13.
Please please please tell me you are joking with this statement.

And if you interested, the chances of winning 13 times in a row is 1 in 8192. Which given the amount of games of madden that get played it is actually quite likely it will happen to someone.

I am 100% the coin toss is fair, it is like the easiest thing to program into a game.
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Old 09-13-2010, 03:51 PM   #7
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Re: Coin Tosses

Quote:
Originally Posted by hampshire2012
Please please please tell me you are joking with this statement.

And if you interested, the chances of winning 13 times in a row is 1 in 8192. Which given the amount of games of madden that get played it is actually quite likely it will happen to someone.

I am 100% the coin toss is fair, it is like the easiest thing to program into a game.
But, if you win twelve in a row, the odds of winning the next one is still 50/50.
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Old 09-13-2010, 03:59 PM   #8
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Re: Coin Tosses

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vitch
But, if you win twelve in a row, the odds of winning the next one is still 50/50.
Correct (not that I need to tell you that!) I was trying to make the point that a) 13 coin toss wins in a row is not actually as unlikely as it may seem, and that b) there absolutely no way that the coin toss logic is unfair.
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Old 09-13-2010, 04:02 PM   #9
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Re: Coin Tosses

Quote:
Originally Posted by hampshire2012
Correct (not that I need to tell you that!) I was trying to make the point that a) 13 coin toss wins in a row is not actually as unlikely as it may seem, and that b) there absolutely no way that the coin toss logic is unfair.
I don't think it's the coin toss logic either, b/c all 13 of these games were online.
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Old 09-13-2010, 04:45 PM   #10
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Re: Coin Tosses

Every second and/or third guess you end up having the advantage due to pure mathematical odds. Like you have a 75% that your second guess will be opposite of the first. Which brings you back to 50% then if you get it right you get a 75% odds again but if you get it wrong you start off a new series with a 75% advantage. Sure luck comes into play every few but mostly you have an advantage. Specially if you have a huge sample to choose from because then you end up with trends. I love math I just have problems explaining things. So yes the flip of the coin is 50% but when you are given a choice you can use odds to your advantage...kinda like in Blackjack and the card counting system (which makes me some good money when i go to the casinos )
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