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threes_co · 09-12-2010, 07:32 PM

I have won 13 coin tosses in a row. What is wrong w/ my system? Is this a bug, or have I just been getting extremely lucky?

jaymee13 · 09-12-2010, 07:43 PM

You would think that you would have a 50/50 shot with only two chances, but since you get to choose before every 50/50 chance the odds are skewed. It's very possible to have a streak of 13.

oneamongthefence · 09-12-2010, 08:23 PM

Do you always receive the ball?

threes_co · 09-12-2010, 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albert_24


	Do you always receive the ball?

No. I always elect to kick.

Exonerated · 09-13-2010, 12:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ace23


	No. I always elect to kick.

The CPU always elects to receive.

hampshire2012 · 09-13-2010, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaymee13


	You would think that you would have a 50/50 shot with only two chances, but since you get to choose before every 50/50 chance the odds are skewed.* It's very possible to have a streak of 13.*

Please please please tell me you are joking with this statement.

And if you interested, the chances of winning 13 times in a row is 1 in 8192. Which given the amount of games of madden that get played it is actually quite likely it will happen to someone.

I am 100% the coin toss is fair, it is like the easiest thing to program into a game.

Vitch · 09-13-2010, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hampshire2012


	Please please please tell me you are joking with this statement. And if you interested, the chances of winning 13 times in a row is 1 in 8192. Which given the amount of games of madden that get played it is actually quite likely it will happen to someone. I am 100% the coin toss is fair, it is like the easiest thing to program into a game.

But, if you win twelve in a row, the odds of winning the next one is still 50/50.

hampshire2012 · 09-13-2010, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vitch


	But, if you win twelve in a row, the odds of winning the next one is still 50/50.

Correct (not that I need to tell you that!) I was trying to make the point that a) 13 coin toss wins in a row is not actually as unlikely as it may seem, and that b) there absolutely no way that the coin toss logic is unfair.

threes_co · 09-13-2010, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hampshire2012


	Correct (not that I need to tell you that!) I was trying to make the point that a) 13 coin toss wins in a row is not actually as unlikely as it may seem, and that b) there absolutely no way that the coin toss logic is unfair.

I don't think it's the coin toss logic either, b/c all 13 of these games were online.

jaymee13 · 09-13-2010, 04:45 PM

Every second and/or third guess you end up having the advantage due to pure mathematical odds. Like you have a 75% that your second guess will be opposite of the first. Which brings you back to 50% then if you get it right you get a 75% odds again but if you get it wrong you start off a new series with a 75% advantage. Sure luck comes into play every few but mostly you have an advantage. Specially if you have a huge sample to choose from because then you end up with trends. I love math I just have problems explaining things. So yes the flip of the coin is 50% but when you are given a choice you can use odds to your advantage...kinda like in Blackjack and the card counting system (which makes me some good money when i go to the casinos

)

09-12-2010, 07:43 PM	#2
jaymee13 MVP OVR: 16 Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Woburn, MA Blog Entries: 3	You would think that you would have a 50/50 shot with only two chances, but since you get to choose before every 50/50 chance the odds are skewed. It's very possible to have a streak of 13. __________________ ------------------------------------------- Wonder what it would be like to see the Patriots without Tom Brady?! 50,000+ viewers cannot be wrong......Come check out my Patriots dynasty No More Brady - A Patriots Story (Madden 13)

09-12-2010, 08:23 PM	#3
oneamongthefence Nothing to see here folks OVR: 22 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Arizona Posts: 2,289 Blog Entries: 6	Re: Coin Tosses Do you always receive the ball?

09-13-2010, 04:45 PM	#10
jaymee13 MVP OVR: 16 Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Woburn, MA Blog Entries: 3	Re: Coin Tosses Every second and/or third guess you end up having the advantage due to pure mathematical odds. Like you have a 75% that your second guess will be opposite of the first. Which brings you back to 50% then if you get it right you get a 75% odds again but if you get it wrong you start off a new series with a 75% advantage. Sure luck comes into play every few but mostly you have an advantage. Specially if you have a huge sample to choose from because then you end up with trends. I love math I just have problems explaining things. So yes the flip of the coin is 50% but when you are given a choice you can use odds to your advantage...kinda like in Blackjack and the card counting system (which makes me some good money when i go to the casinos ) __________________ ------------------------------------------- Wonder what it would be like to see the Patriots without Tom Brady?! 50,000+ viewers cannot be wrong......Come check out my Patriots dynasty No More Brady - A Patriots Story (Madden 13)

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