1975 Fool Classic Thread

kaosfere · 09-13-2008, 12:45 AM

Looking at the numbers, it seems that Chicago should be the heavy favorite here. I've made a few adjustments which I won't discuss at the moment, but I'm going to go against my own hopes and predict Chicago in 7.

But don't tell my team that...

Young Drachma · 09-13-2008, 11:33 AM

kaosfere · 09-13-2008, 12:06 PM

I've been doing a bit more research. My performance this year was a dramatic 11 over the pyth. Curious about how this worked out, I looked at my game record. I'm 17-6 (.739!) in extra innings and 40-12 (.769!!) in one-run games. I tried going through my box scores to see how much those two sets overlapped, but some of the games in my schedule list linked to other games' boxes, making it difficult or impossible. (WTF? Stupid OOTP.)

I'm going to do some comparisons, but primarily on one-run games, because I'm lazy and there's no simple way to seperate the extra-inning games.

Team: 1R W-L (.avg) [1R/XI]

Toronto: 40-12 (.769) [52/23]
Valdosta: 24-25 (.490) [49/13]
Rio Grande: 26-24 (.520) [50/17]
Atlanta: 23-29 (.442) [52/20]
New York: 29-27 (.518) [56/11]
Texas: 21-26 (.447) [47/19]
Baltimore: 23-36 (.390) [59/19]
Brooklyn: 24-31 (.436) [55/20]

Here's an ordered list of how each team's performance in the clutch differed from its overall record:

Toronto: +.165
New York: +.050
Brooklyn: +.014
Rio Grande: +.001
Texas: -.021
Atlanta: -.045
Baltimore: -.052
Valdosta: -.101

I'm going to make up a new stat here, and call it CLUTCH: It's the above difference between a team's performance in one-run games and its overall record, times 1000 to make it easy. This gives the following CLUTCH results for 1975 CL teams:

Toronto: 165
New York: 50
Brooklyn: 14
Rio Grande: 1
Texas: -21
Atlanta -45
Baltimore: -52
Valdosta: -101

(Statistical note: I plotted these results against each team's difference from its expected record, and found a positive correlation with a p-value of .0047 (two-sided). It definitely seems that a team's record in one-run games can be a very strong predictor of performance over or under expectations. This is perhaps unsurprising, but interesting to see confirmed, albeit over a very small data-set)

Regardless, it seems that a good chunk of my team's ability to beat the expected record may be because of excellent performance in very close ballgames. This indicates that my positive performance over the pythagorean prediction may be because of good clutch hitting rather than "luck". I'd be interested in doing some more analysis to work on this and break out some metrics for it, but I'm sure some saber geek somewhere has already done this, no?

ANYWAY, I just had a quick look at Chicago's performance in similar games.

With a one-run record of 20-20, their PORG (Percentage of One-Run Games -- I just made that up right now, do you like it?) is .260 with an ORGR (One-Run Game Record) of .500 and a CLUTCH of -78. Toronto's PORG is .338, with an ORGR of .769.

This indicates that, while Chicago gets into fewer tight games, their performance in clutch situations is worse than their performance overall. I have not yet looked at their player breakdown to see if that would give a good explanation for this general trend, but it bodes well for Toronto if the classic games are low-scoring.

TL;DR: If my pitching can keep games close, my odds, as I see them, of winning the classic are a good bit higher than raw numbers may indicate.

This turned into a bit more of a general stats monologue than something terribly relevant to the Classic, but I thought it might be worth sharing.

kaosfere · 09-13-2008, 12:13 PM

Dola, nice, DC. If you have time, any chance I could see that with 1975 right-justified and balanced by "TORONTO" or "TOR" on the left? Not sure if that would look good, or crap.

Yay, banners! Yay Toronto's best record ever! Yay my first playoffs!

Young Drachma · 09-13-2008, 12:32 PM

I love your new stats. Great work, here. I made some tweaks to the banner, too.

kaosfere · 09-13-2008, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

I love your new stats. Great work, here. I made some tweaks to the banner, too.

Looks good. Thanks!

I may do some more fiddling with numbers regarding clutch performance this weekend. Right now I need to straighten up the house a bit and make ready to go out.

My wife and I need to go out tonight (

) to spend some time with a depressed friend, so I might not be around for the big games. I'll be following on my iphone as time allows, though!

TimGuru · 09-13-2008, 02:02 PM

Is this a league of agoraphobics or what? I felt the same way last night about having to go out with wife and her sister.

I guess we won't be planning a league get together any time soon.

kaosfere · 09-13-2008, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimGuru

Is this a league of agoraphobics or what? I felt the same way last night about having to go out with wife and her sister.

Hah! Nah, most nights I wouldn't mind. Would just prefer to be able to be here to watch my team's first ever Classic live.

Of course, "real life" takes priority.

Young Drachma · 09-13-2008, 03:37 PM

I really enjoy the stats monologue. Totally gonna blog about it over at Immersinik now. I'm convinced a new business of sabermetrics based on fake baseball modeling is upon us.

Young Drachma · 09-13-2008, 07:05 PM

It's astounding that a team that was 7th in the CL in hitting has made it to the Classic. Even more astounding that their pitching was as hard core as it was. They don't have the lowest BVORP of any Classic potential-champion, that goes to the '63 and '64 Terriers. Those teams couldn't hit worth a lick in an era, where that was a huge thing. But they had the pitching to make up for it.

This year's Toronto club is in the same mold.

Young Drachma · 09-13-2008, 07:06 PM

I think we should keep the Sunday sim in place, but that it'd be delightful to start simming the Classic on Saturday night. Or at least, reserving the option to do so.

That's just me being eager....

kaosfere · 09-13-2008, 08:51 PM

oh! The Classic is Sunday, not Saturday. I plum forgot! Hasn't been an issue for me yet. :P. If you want to run it tonight, I'm exported and ready. I'd be fine waiting though. Tipsy and on my phone and I think we're crashing at a friends tonight. Tomorrow probably preferable. No big either way though.

Ok. Enough phone posting. Back to the booze!

Alan T · 09-13-2008, 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaosfere

oh! The Classic is Sunday, not Saturday. I plum forgot! Hasn't been an issue for me yet. :P. If you want to run it tonight, I'm exported and ready. I'd be fine waiting though. Tipsy and on my phone and I think we're crashing at a friends tonight. Tomorrow probably preferable. No big either way though.

Ok. Enough phone posting. Back to the booze!

After last time all hell broke loose from DC simming early, I'm guessing he isn't going to make that mistake again

kaosfere · 09-13-2008, 09:04 PM

oh dear. What happened?

Young Drachma · 09-13-2008, 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

After last time all hell broke loose from DC simming early, I'm guessing he isn't going to make that mistake again

The only problem is, I might be on the road tomorrow night when I'm scheduled to do the sim.

So I might do it tonight. It won't affect anything since VL players don't FA until November now and there will still be a sim tomorrow night for people to offer extensions like normal.

Young Drachma · 09-13-2008, 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaosfere

oh dear. What happened?

The main problem was, people worried that it replaced the Sunday sim. Once we solidifed that it wouldn't replace the Sunday sim and that we could do it early -- to give me flexibility -- then it wasn't as much of a problem.

But the VL FAs caused an issue to it, because it gave people an extra chance to sign them. But now that we've pushed them back to November, there isn't really anything that gets effected by it.

Alan T · 09-13-2008, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

The only problem is, I might be on the road tomorrow night when I'm scheduled to do the sim.

So I might do it tonight. It won't affect anything since VL players don't FA until November now and there will still be a sim tomorrow night for people to offer extensions like normal.

If you're doing it tonight, let me know. I haven't gotten my export in yet and want to before the classic.

Young Drachma · 09-13-2008, 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

If you're doing it tonight, let me know. I haven't gotten my export in yet and want to before the classic.

The box scores and game logs are uploading to the web site (another 6000 files or so....) and so, I won't be doing anything until then.

At least another 45 minutes.

Alan T · 09-13-2008, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

The box scores and game logs are uploading to the web site (another 6000 files or so....) and so, I won't be doing anything until then.

At least another 45 minutes.

Ok, I'll try to get my export in. Thanks

Tasan · 09-13-2008, 11:34 PM

Hey guys just checking in. I survived Ike, but its left among the 3-4 million w/o power. I'm currently posting via my blackberry, and its data service was very spotty during daylight. I'll fire up my laptop and try to post manual instructions for my team before sim time, but if you don't hear from me before then, please just use some good judgement on how to handle my team. If it continues to look bad powerwise for the week, maybe someone else can run the team this season? CR? I'd like to keep the team, but just may not be able to export for a week. Let me know on the forums, because PMs are a pain on the blackberry.

Young Drachma · 09-13-2008, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tasan

Hey guys just checking in. I survived Ike, but its left among the 3-4 million w/o power. I'm currently posting via my blackberry, and its data service was very spotty during daylight. I'll fire up my laptop and try to post manual instructions for my team before sim time, but if you don't hear from me before then, please just use some good judgement on how to handle my team. If it continues to look bad powerwise for the week, maybe someone else can run the team this season? CR? I'd like to keep the team, but just may not be able to export for a week. Let me know on the forums, because PMs are a pain on the blackberry.

We'll take care of 'ya if we don't hear from you tomorrow by post time and we'll have more time because I'm gonna run late. Don't worry. We'll make sure you don't lose ground. Thanks for the heads up. Stay safe.

Young Drachma · 09-13-2008, 11:47 PM

Okay...here we go. I won't be around tomorrow night until later, so I want to do this now so it's up there. There will be a new file out and then you can download that and tomorrow night's sim will still happen as normal, just no Classic since it'll have been done already. (We'll sim seven days tomorrow night, FYI.)

Young Drachma · 09-14-2008, 12:06 AM

GAME 1: Toronto 2, Chicago 0

Code:

Front Office Offseason League Box Scores
Chicago Thunderstorms at Toronto Osprey	
Game ID: 5743 - Friday, September 19th, 1975 - Game Log

	
Friday, September 19th, 1975
  			1 	2 	3 	4 	5 	6 	7 	8 	9 	R	H	E
Chicago Thunderstorms 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0	6	0
Toronto Osprey 		0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	2 	X 	2	4	1
	

Chicago	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	HR	RBI
R. Cruz 2B	3	0	1	0	0	1	2	.333	0	0
   a-B. Hackwell PR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
   b-P. Méndez 2B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
C. Larsen SS	4	0	1	0	0	1	2	.250	0	0
M. Montoya 3B	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	0	0
M. Rasmussen RF	4	0	0	0	0	2	1	.000	0	0
L. Mendoza 1B	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	.000	0	0
T. Fournier CF	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	.667	0	0
A. Corona LF	3	0	1	0	0	0	2	.333	0	0
C. Segura C	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	0	0
B. Myers P	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	.333	0	0
Totals	31	0	6	0	0	6	11			

a - B. Hackwell pinch ran for R. Cruz in the 8th
b - P. Méndez substituted for B. Hackwell in the 8th

BATTING
Doubles: T. Fournier (1, 5th Inning off A. Wiley, 0 on, 0 outs)
Triples: C. Larsen (1, 4th Inning off A. Wiley, 0 on, 0 outs)
Total Bases: A. Corona, R. Cruz, T. Fournier 3, B. Myers, C. Larsen 3
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: R. Cruz, M. Montoya, L. Mendoza, C. Larsen
Sac Bunt: R. Cruz
Team LOB: 5

BASERUNNING
SB: A. Corona (1)
CS: T. Fournier (1)

	
Toronto	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	HR	RBI
P. Catron RF	4	1	2	2	0	0	0	.500	1	2
E. Meyer 2B	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	.333	0	0
A. Luján 3B	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	0	0
R. Lord LF	3	0	0	0	0	2	2	.000	0	0
D. Dunham CF	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
B. Gibbs 1B	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	.000	0	0
P. Hamilton C	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	.000	0	0
   c-D. Fritz C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
D. Graves SS	3	0	1	0	0	1	2	.333	0	0
   a-N. Heard PR	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
   b-M. Rodríguez SS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
A. Wiley P	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	.000	0	0
Totals	26	2	4	2	2	5	8			

a - N. Heard pinch ran for D. Graves in the 8th
b - M. Rodríguez substituted for N. Heard in the 9th
c - D. Fritz substituted for P. Hamilton in the 9th

BATTING
Home Runs: P. Catron (1, 8th Inning off B. Myers, 1 on, 1 out)
Total Bases: E. Meyer, P. Catron 5, D. Graves
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: , R. Lord 2
Sac Bunt: A. Luján, E. Meyer
Team LOB: 4

BASERUNNING
SB: N. Heard 2 (2)

FIELDING
Errors: A. Wiley

Chicago	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PI	PS	ERA
B. Myers L (0-1)	8.0	4	2	2	2	5	1	116	71	2.25

PITCHING
Game Score: B. Myers 69
Batters Faced: B. Myers 30
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: B. Myers 12-7
Pitches - Strikes: B. Myers 116-71

	
Toronto	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PI	PS	ERA
A. Wiley W (1-0)	9.0	6	0	0	0	6	0	102	69	0.00

PITCHING
Game Score: A. Wiley 81
Batters Faced: A. Wiley 32
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: A. Wiley 11-9
Pitches - Strikes: A. Wiley 102-69

GAME NOTES
Player of the Game: A. Wiley
Ballpark: Atlantic Gardens
Weather: Clear skies (53 degrees), wind blowing out to left at 16 mph
Start Time: 7:05 pm
Time: 2:07
Attendance: 34152

Young Drachma · 09-14-2008, 12:08 AM

GAME 2: Chicago 5, Toronto 3

Code:

Front Office Offseason League Box Scores
Chicago Thunderstorms at Toronto Osprey	
Game ID: 5744 - Saturday, September 20th, 1975 - Game Log

	
Saturday, September 20th, 1975
  			1 	2 	3 	4 	5 	6 	7 	8 	9 	R	H	E
Chicago Thunderstorms 	2 	2 	0 	0 	1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	5	11	1
Toronto Osprey 		0 	0 	1 	1 	0 	0 	1 	0 	0 	3	6	0
	

Chicago	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	HR	RBI
T. Fournier LF	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	.375	0	0
C. Segura C	3	2	2	1	2	1	0	.333	0	1
   O. Díaz P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
C. Larsen 2B	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	.143	0	0
   a-R. Gonzáles PH	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1.000	0	0
   c-C. Andrew SS	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1.000	0	0
L. Mendoza 1B	4	0	1	2	1	2	4	.125	0	2
P. Méndez SS	3	0	0	0	0	2	2	.000	0	0
   b-R. Cruz PH, 2B	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	.250	0	0
M. Rasmussen RF	3	1	2	0	1	1	0	.286	0	0
   G. Riggs P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
   e-A. Torres C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
M. Montoya 3B	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	.200	0	0
B. Hackwell CF	4	1	1	2	0	1	3	.250	1	2
H. Mason P	3	0	0	0	0	2	2	.000	0	0
   d-A. Corona RF	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	.500	0	0
Totals	33	5	11	5	4	10	16			

a - R. Gonzáles pinch hit for C. Larsen in the 7th
b - R. Cruz pinch hit for P. Méndez in the 7th
c - C. Andrew substituted for R. Gonzáles in the 7th
d - A. Corona substituted for H. Mason in the 8th
e - A. Torres substituted for G. Riggs in the 9th

BATTING
Doubles: C. Segura (1, 1st Inning off S. Yamada, 1 on, 0 outs) C. Andrew (1, 9th Inning off A. Zijm, 1 on, 2 outs)
Home Runs: B. Hackwell (1, 2nd Inning off S. Yamada, 1 on, 1 out)
Total Bases: M. Rasmussen 2, B. Hackwell 4, L. Mendoza, C. Segura 3, M. Montoya, T. Fournier, R. Gonzáles, C. Andrew 2, A. Corona
2-out RBI: L. Mendoza
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: L. Mendoza, H. Mason 2, R. Cruz
Sac Bunt: M. Montoya 3
Team LOB: 9

BASERUNNING
SB: C. Segura (1), R. Gonzáles (1)
CS: M. Montoya (1), A. Corona (1)

FIELDING
Errors: H. Mason
Double Plays: 1 (Mason-Méndez-Mendoza)

	
Toronto	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	HR	RBI
P. Catron RF	4	1	2	1	0	1	0	.500	2	3
E. Meyer 2B	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	.286	0	0
A. Luján 3B	4	1	1	1	0	1	1	.143	1	1
R. Lord LF	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	.000	0	0
D. Dunham CF	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	.000	0	0
B. Gibbs 1B	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
P. Hamilton C	3	0	0	0	1	1	2	.000	0	0
D. Graves SS	3	0	2	1	0	0	0	.500	0	1
   b-D. Thomas PH	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	0	0
S. Yamada P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
   a-R. Haas PH	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	0	0
   R. Mendoza P	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	.000	0	0
   L. Finley P	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	0	0
   A. Zijm P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
Totals	32	3	6	3	1	8	8			

a - R. Haas pinch hit for S. Yamada in the 2nd
b - D. Thomas pinch hit for D. Graves in the 9th

BATTING
Doubles: D. Graves (1, 4th Inning off H. Mason, 1 on, 2 outs)
Home Runs: A. Luján (1, 3rd Inning off H. Mason, 0 on, 2 outs) P. Catron (2, 7th Inning off H. Mason, 0 on, 2 outs)
Total Bases: A. Luján 4, E. Meyer, P. Catron 5, D. Graves 3
2-out RBI: A. Luján, P. Catron, D. Graves
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: R. Mendoza, R. Haas
GIDP: E. Meyer
Sac Bunt: B. Gibbs
Team LOB: 5

FIELDING
Double Plays: 1 (Hamilton-Meyer)

Chicago	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PI	PS	ERA
H. Mason W (1-0)	7.0	6	3	3	1	5	2	111	68	3.86
G. Riggs H (1)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	14	10	0.00
O. Díaz SV (1)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13	6	0.00

PITCHING
Game Score: H. Mason 57
Batters Faced: H. Mason 29, G. Riggs 3, O. Díaz 3
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: H. Mason 7-8, G. Riggs 1-0, O. Díaz 0-2
Pitches - Strikes: H. Mason 111-68, G. Riggs 14-10, O. Díaz 13-6
HB: H. Mason

	
Toronto	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PI	PS	ERA
S. Yamada L (0-1)	2.0	4	4	4	0	1	1	31	22	18.00
R. Mendoza 	3.0	2	1	1	3	3	0	50	27	3.00
L. Finley 	3.2	4	0	0	1	5	0	66	46	0.00
A. Zijm 	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	7	4	0.00

PITCHING
Game Score: S. Yamada 29
Batters Faced: S. Yamada 10, R. Mendoza 14, L. Finley 14, A. Zijm 2
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: S. Yamada 4-1, R. Mendoza 3-3, L. Finley 3-1, A. Zijm 0-0
Pitches - Strikes: S. Yamada 31-22, R. Mendoza 50-27, L. Finley 66-46, A. Zijm 7-4
Inherited Runners - Scored: L. Finley 1-0, A. Zijm 1-0

GAME NOTES
Player of the Game: B. Hackwell
Ballpark: Atlantic Gardens
Weather: Clear skies (69 degrees), wind blowing left to right at 15 mph
Start Time: 1:05 pm
Time: 3:00
Attendance: 34140

Young Drachma · 09-14-2008, 12:09 AM

GAME 3: Chicago 3, Toronto 1

Code:

Front Office Offseason League Box Scores
Toronto Osprey at Chicago Thunderstorms	
Game ID: 5847 - Sunday, September 21st, 1975 - Game Log

	
Sunday, September 21st, 1975
  			1 	2 	3 	4 	5 	6 	7 	8 	9 	R	H	E
Toronto Osprey 		0 	0 	1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1	5	0
Chicago Thunderstorms 	2 	1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	X 	3	6	0
	

Toronto	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	HR	RBI
P. Catron RF	4	0	0	0	0	3	0	.333	2	3
E. Meyer 2B	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	.364	0	0
A. Luján 3B	4	0	2	1	0	2	1	.273	1	2
R. Lord LF	3	0	0	0	1	1	2	.000	0	0
D. Dunham CF	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	0	0
B. Gibbs 1B	3	0	1	0	1	0	2	.125	0	0
P. Hamilton C	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	0	0
D. Graves SS	3	0	0	0	0	3	2	.333	0	1
M. Rodríguez DH	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
Totals	31	1	5	1	2	10	10			

BATTING
Doubles: A. Luján (1, 3rd Inning off F. Yarbrough, 1 on, 2 outs) E. Meyer (1, 1st Inning off F. Yarbrough, 0 on, 1 out)
Total Bases: A. Luján 3, E. Meyer 3, B. Gibbs
2-out RBI: A. Luján
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: P. Hamilton, D. Graves, R. Lord 2
Sac Bunt: P. Hamilton
Team LOB: 6

FIELDING
Double Plays: 1 (Saito-Graves)

	
Chicago	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	HR	RBI
T. Fournier CF	4	1	1	0	0	0	3	.333	0	0
A. Corona LF	4	1	2	2	0	0	0	.500	1	2
M. Rasmussen RF	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	.250	0	0
L. Mendoza 1B	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	.100	0	2
R. Cruz SS	4	0	1	0	0	1	3	.250	0	0
M. Montoya 3B	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	.333	0	0
C. Larsen 2B	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	.222	0	0
C. Segura C	4	0	0	0	0	1	5	.200	0	1
R. Gonzáles DH	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	.500	0	1
Totals	23	3	6	3	6	3	15			

BATTING
Home Runs: A. Corona (1, 1st Inning off M. Saito, 1 on, 0 outs)
Total Bases: A. Corona 5, R. Cruz, M. Montoya, T. Fournier, C. Larsen
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: , R. Cruz 2, T. Fournier, C. Segura, R. Gonzáles
GIDP: L. Mendoza
Sac Bunt: M. Rasmussen, M. Montoya, L. Mendoza, C. Larsen 2
Sac Fly: R. Gonzáles
Team LOB: 9

BASERUNNING
SB: T. Fournier (1)

Toronto	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PI	PS	ERA
M. Saito L (0-1)	7.0	6	3	3	6	3	1	121	67	3.86
L. Finley 	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17	10	0.00

PITCHING
Game Score: M. Saito 50
Batters Faced: M. Saito 32, L. Finley 3
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: M. Saito 10-7, L. Finley 2-1
Pitches - Strikes: M. Saito 121-67, L. Finley 17-10
Inherited Runners - Scored: L. Finley 1-0

	
Chicago	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PI	PS	ERA
F. Yarbrough W (1-0)	7.1	4	1	1	1	9	0	115	76	1.23
D. Proctor H (1)	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	13	8	0.00
O. Díaz SV (2)	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	25	17	0.00

PITCHING
Game Score: F. Yarbrough 74
Batters Faced: F. Yarbrough 27, D. Proctor 2, O. Díaz 5
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: F. Yarbrough 6-7, D. Proctor 1-0, O. Díaz 3-0
Pitches - Strikes: F. Yarbrough 115-76, D. Proctor 13-8, O. Díaz 25-17

GAME NOTES
Player of the Game: F. Yarbrough
Ballpark: H2 Park
Weather: Partly Cloudy (55 degrees), wind blowing in from left at 11 mph
Start Time: 7:05 pm
Time: 2:52
Attendance: 49918

Young Drachma · 09-14-2008, 12:10 AM

GAME 4: Chicago 3, Toronto 2 (12 innings)

Code:

Front Office Offseason League Box Scores
Toronto Osprey at Chicago Thunderstorms	
Game ID: 5848 - Monday, September 22nd, 1975 - Game Log

	
Monday, September 22nd, 1975
  			1 	2 	3 	4 	5 	6 	7 	8 	9 	10 	11 	12 	R	H	E
Toronto Osprey 		0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1 	0 	1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	2	6	2
Chicago Thunderstorms 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1 	0 	1 	0 	0 	1 	3	11	0
	

Toronto	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	HR	RBI
P. Catron RF	3	0	1	0	2	1	1	.333	2	3
E. Meyer 2B	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	.286	0	0
A. Luján 3B	5	2	2	2	0	2	3	.313	3	4
R. Lord LF	5	0	1	0	0	3	0	.067	0	0
D. Dunham CF	5	0	0	0	0	2	1	.000	0	0
B. Gibbs 1B	5	0	0	0	0	2	1	.077	0	0
P. Hamilton C	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.000	0	0
   a-D. Fritz C	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	0	0
D. Graves SS	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.231	0	1
M. Rodríguez DH	4	0	2	0	0	1	0	.286	0	0
Totals	39	2	6	2	3	16	6			

a - D. Fritz substituted for P. Hamilton in the 9th

BATTING
Doubles: P. Catron (1, 8th Inning off S. Godbout, 0 on, 0 outs) M. Rodríguez (1, 3rd Inning off S. Godbout, 0 on, 2 outs)
Home Runs: A. Luján 2 (3, 6th Inning off S. Godbout, 0 on, 1 out; 8th Inning off S. Godbout, 0 on, 2 outs)
Total Bases: A. Luján 8, P. Catron 2, R. Lord, M. Rodríguez 3
2-out RBI: A. Luján
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: A. Luján, B. Gibbs
Sac Bunt: E. Meyer
Team LOB: 5

BASERUNNING
CS: P. Catron 2 (2)

FIELDING
Errors: F. Padilla , B. Gibbs

	
Chicago	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	HR	RBI
A. Corona LF	5	0	1	0	1	1	2	.385	1	2
T. Fournier CF	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	.294	0	0
M. Rasmussen RF	4	0	1	1	1	0	1	.250	0	1
   c-P. Méndez PR, RF	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
L. Mendoza 1B	4	1	2	1	2	0	1	.214	1	3
M. Montoya 3B	3	0	1	0	1	0	2	.333	0	0
R. Cruz SS	4	0	3	0	0	1	0	.417	0	0
   a-B. Hackwell PR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.250	1	2
   b-C. Andrew SS	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	.500	0	0
C. Larsen 2B	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	.167	0	0
C. Segura C	4	0	0	0	0	0	6	.143	0	1
   d-J. Manley PH	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	0	0
   e-A. Torres C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
R. Gonzáles DH	5	1	2	1	0	0	2	.429	1	2
Totals	40	3	11	3	5	5	18			

a - B. Hackwell pinch ran for R. Cruz in the 8th
b - C. Andrew substituted for B. Hackwell in the 9th
c - P. Méndez pinch ran for M. Rasmussen in the 9th
d - J. Manley pinch hit for C. Segura in the 10th
e - A. Torres substituted for J. Manley in the 11th

BATTING
Doubles: R. Gonzáles (1, 2nd Inning off H. Nakamura, 1 on, 2 outs)
Triples: T. Fournier (1, 9th Inning off F. Padilla, 0 on, 2 outs)
Home Runs: R. Gonzáles (1, 7th Inning off H. Nakamura, 0 on, 0 outs) L. Mendoza (1, 12th Inning off P. Urbina, 0 on, 0 outs)
Total Bases: M. Rasmussen, R. Gonzáles 6, L. Mendoza 5, A. Corona, R. Cruz 3, M. Montoya, T. Fournier 3
2-out RBI: M. Rasmussen
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: R. Gonzáles, A. Corona, C. Segura, M. Montoya, C. Andrew
Sac Bunt: M. Montoya, T. Fournier, C. Larsen 2
Team LOB: 13

BASERUNNING
CS: A. Corona (2)

Toronto	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PI	PS	ERA
H. Nakamura 	6.2	7	1	1	2	2	1	120	67	1.35
A. Zijm 	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	3	0.00
J. Singleton H (1)	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	10	7	0.00
F. Padilla BS (1)	2.0	2	1	1	2	3	0	47	25	4.50
P. Urbina L (0-1)	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	1	20	12	9.00

PITCHING
Game Score: H. Nakamura 56
Batters Faced: H. Nakamura 30, A. Zijm 2, J. Singleton 3, F. Padilla 10, P. Urbina 4
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: H. Nakamura 9-9, A. Zijm 0-2, J. Singleton 0-2, F. Padilla 1-2, P. Urbina 2-0
Pitches - Strikes: H. Nakamura 120-67, A. Zijm 5-3, J. Singleton 10-7, F. Padilla 47-25, P. Urbina 20-12
Inherited Runners - Scored: A. Zijm 1-0

	
Chicago	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PI	PS	ERA
S. Godbout 	9.0	6	2	2	3	12	2	131	80	2.00
G. Riggs W (1-0)	3.0	0	0	0	0	4	0	31	20	0.00

PITCHING
Game Score: S. Godbout 76
Batters Faced: S. Godbout 34, G. Riggs 9
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: S. Godbout 8-5, G. Riggs 3-2
Pitches - Strikes: S. Godbout 131-80, G. Riggs 31-20

GAME NOTES
Player of the Game: S. Godbout
Ballpark: H2 Park
Weather: Partly Cloudy (63 degrees), wind blowing in from center at 10 mph
Start Time: 7:05 pm
Time: 3:38
Attendance: 49901

Young Drachma · 09-14-2008, 12:11 AM

GAME 5: Chicago 6, Toronto 2

Code:

Front Office Offseason League Box Scores
Chicago Thunderstorms at Toronto Osprey	
Game ID: 5849 - Wednesday, September 24th, 1975 - Game Log

	
Wednesday, September 24th, 1975
  			1 	2 	3 	4 	5 	6 	7 	8 	9 	R	H	E
Chicago Thunderstorms 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1 	0 	0 	0 	5 	6	5	0
Toronto Osprey 		0 	0 	1 	1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	2	8	1
	

Chicago	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	HR	RBI
R. Cruz 2B	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	.333	0	0
   a-J. Manley PH	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.000	0	0
   b-B. Hackwell PR, LF	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.250	1	2
C. Larsen SS	3	0	0	0	0	3	0	.133	0	0
M. Montoya 3B	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	.308	0	0
M. Rasmussen RF	4	2	1	0	0	0	1	.250	0	1
L. Mendoza 1B	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	.235	1	3
T. Fournier CF	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	.316	0	1
A. Corona LF	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	.333	1	3
   c-R. Gonzáles PH	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	.500	1	4
   d-P. Méndez 2B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
C. Segura C	4	0	0	1	0	2	3	.111	0	2
B. Myers P	4	0	0	0	0	3	2	.143	0	0
   O. Díaz P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
Totals	30	6	5	5	3	10	8			

a - J. Manley pinch hit for R. Cruz in the 9th
b - B. Hackwell pinch ran for J. Manley in the 9th
c - R. Gonzáles pinch hit for A. Corona in the 9th
d - P. Méndez substituted for R. Gonzáles in the 9th

BATTING
Doubles: R. Gonzáles (2, 9th Inning off L. Finley, 3 on, 1 out)
Total Bases: M. Rasmussen, L. Mendoza, M. Montoya, T. Fournier, R. Gonzáles 2
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: C. Segura, B. Myers 2
Sac Bunt: A. Corona, T. Fournier, C. Larsen
Team LOB: 3

	
Toronto	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	HR	RBI
P. Catron RF	4	1	2	0	0	0	1	.368	2	3
E. Meyer 2B	3	0	1	1	1	1	1	.294	0	1
A. Luján 3B	4	0	0	0	0	2	1	.250	3	4
R. Lord LF	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	.105	0	0
D. Dunham CF	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	.056	0	0
B. Gibbs 1B	4	0	0	1	0	1	1	.059	0	1
P. Hamilton C	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
   c-D. Fritz C	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	.500	0	0
D. Graves SS	3	0	1	0	0	2	0	.250	0	1
   a-N. Heard PR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
   b-M. Rodríguez SS	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	.375	0	0
A. Wiley P	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
   F. Padilla P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
   L. Finley P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
   d-D. Thomas PH	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	.000	0	0
Totals	33	2	8	2	1	9	7			

a - N. Heard pinch ran for D. Graves in the 7th
b - M. Rodríguez substituted for N. Heard in the 8th
c - D. Fritz substituted for P. Hamilton in the 9th
d - D. Thomas pinch hit for L. Finley in the 9th

BATTING
Doubles: P. Catron (2, 5th Inning off B. Myers, 0 on, 2 outs)
Triples: E. Meyer (1, 3rd Inning off B. Myers, 1 on, 2 outs)
Total Bases: E. Meyer 3, P. Catron 3, R. Lord, D. Dunham, D. Graves, M. Rodríguez, D. Fritz
2-out RBI: E. Meyer
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: A. Luján, E. Meyer, P. Catron, D. Thomas
Sac Bunt: D. Dunham, A. Wiley
Team LOB: 7

BASERUNNING
SB: P. Catron (1), N. Heard (3)

FIELDING
Errors: B. Gibbs

Chicago	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PI	PS	ERA
B. Myers W (1-1)	8.2	8	2	2	1	8	0	110	71	2.16
O. Díaz SV (3)	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	3	0.00

PITCHING
Game Score: B. Myers 67
Batters Faced: B. Myers 35, O. Díaz 1
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: B. Myers 12-6, O. Díaz 0-0
Pitches - Strikes: B. Myers 110-71, O. Díaz 3-3
Inherited Runners - Scored: O. Díaz 2-0
WP: B. Myers

	
Toronto	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PI	PS	ERA
A. Wiley 	8.0	3	1	1	0	9	0	91	62	0.53
F. Padilla L (0-1)BS (2)	0.1	1	5	2	3	0	0	25	10	11.57
L. Finley 	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	12	8	0.00

PITCHING
Game Score: A. Wiley 81
Batters Faced: A. Wiley 27, F. Padilla 6, L. Finley 3
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: A. Wiley 10-5, F. Padilla 1-0, L. Finley 1-0
Pitches - Strikes: A. Wiley 91-62, F. Padilla 25-10, L. Finley 12-8
Inherited Runners - Scored: L. Finley 3-3

GAME NOTES
Player of the Game: A. Wiley
Ballpark: Atlantic Gardens
Weather: Clear skies (51 degrees), wind blowing in from left at 22 mph
Start Time: 7:05 pm
Time: 2:31
Attendance: 34155

Young Drachma · 09-14-2008, 12:13 AM

GAME 6: Chicago 4, Toronto 1

Code:

Front Office Offseason League Box Scores
Chicago Thunderstorms at Toronto Osprey	
Game ID: 5863 - Thursday, September 25th, 1975 - Game Log

	
Thursday, September 25th, 1975
  			1 	2 	3 	4 	5 	6 	7 	8 	9 	R	H	E
Chicago Thunderstorms 	0 	0 	3 	0 	0 	1 	0 	0 	0 	4	4	2
Toronto Osprey 		0 	0 	0 	1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1	9	0
	

Chicago	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	HR	RBI
T. Fournier LF	4	1	2	1	0	1	0	.348	0	2
C. Segura C	4	2	2	3	0	2	1	.182	2	5
C. Larsen 2B	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	.111	0	0
   a-R. Gonzáles PH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.444	1	4
   c-C. Andrew SS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	0	0
L. Mendoza 1B	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.190	1	3
P. Méndez SS	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	.000	0	0
   b-R. Cruz PH, 2B	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.313	0	0
M. Rasmussen RF	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	.211	0	1
M. Montoya 3B	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	.267	0	0
B. Hackwell CF	3	0	0	0	0	2	1	.143	1	2
H. Mason P	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	0	0
   O. Díaz P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
Totals	30	4	4	4	1	11	2			

a - R. Gonzáles pinch hit for C. Larsen in the 9th
b - R. Cruz pinch hit for P. Méndez in the 9th
c - C. Andrew substituted for R. Gonzáles in the 9th

BATTING
Home Runs: C. Segura 2 (2, 3rd Inning off S. Yamada, 1 on, 2 outs; 6th Inning off S. Yamada, 0 on, 1 out)
Total Bases: T. Fournier 2, C. Segura 8
2-out RBI: T. Fournier, C. Segura
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: C. Segura
Sac Bunt: H. Mason
Team LOB: 1

BASERUNNING
SB: T. Fournier (2)

FIELDING
Errors: M. Montoya 2

	
Toronto	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	HR	RBI
P. Catron RF	5	0	2	0	0	1	0	.375	2	3
E. Meyer 2B	4	0	0	0	1	0	2	.238	0	1
A. Luján 3B	4	0	1	0	0	2	1	.250	3	4
R. Lord LF	4	1	2	0	0	1	0	.174	0	0
D. Dunham CF	4	0	1	0	0	1	2	.091	0	0
B. Gibbs 1B	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	.158	0	1
   a-N. Heard PR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
   b-M. Rodríguez 1B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.375	0	0
   d-R. Haas PH, 1B	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	0	0
P. Hamilton C	4	0	1	0	0	1	4	.053	0	0
D. Graves SS	4	0	0	0	0	2	6	.200	0	1
S. Yamada P	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	.000	0	0
   c-D. Fritz PH	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.333	0	0
   L. Finley P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
   e-D. Thomas PH	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	0	0
Totals	36	1	9	0	1	11	18			

a - N. Heard pinch ran for B. Gibbs in the 6th
b - M. Rodríguez substituted for N. Heard in the 7th
c - D. Fritz pinch hit for S. Yamada in the 7th
d - R. Haas pinch hit for M. Rodríguez in the 8th
e - D. Thomas pinch hit for L. Finley in the 9th

BATTING
Doubles: P. Catron (3, 9th Inning off O. Díaz, 0 on, 2 outs) R. Lord 2 (2, 4th Inning off H. Mason, 0 on, 0 outs; 8th Inning off H. Mason, 0 on, 0 outs)
Total Bases: A. Luján, B. Gibbs 2, P. Hamilton, P. Catron 3, R. Lord 4, D. Dunham
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: S. Yamada, P. Hamilton, E. Meyer, D. Graves 2
Sac Bunt: B. Gibbs, P. Hamilton
Team LOB: 10

Chicago	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PI	PS	ERA
H. Mason W (2-0)	8.0	8	1	0	1	10	0	120	79	1.80
O. Díaz SV (4)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	18	13	0.00

PITCHING
Game Score: H. Mason 73
Batters Faced: H. Mason 35, O. Díaz 4
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: H. Mason 8-6, O. Díaz 0-2
Pitches - Strikes: H. Mason 120-79, O. Díaz 18-13
WP: H. Mason

	
Toronto	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PI	PS	ERA
S. Yamada L (0-2)	7.0	3	4	4	1	7	2	92	57	8.00
L. Finley 	2.0	1	0	0	0	4	0	33	22	0.00

PITCHING
Game Score: S. Yamada 61
Batters Faced: S. Yamada 25, L. Finley 7
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: S. Yamada 5-9, L. Finley 0-2
Pitches - Strikes: S. Yamada 92-57, L. Finley 33-22

GAME NOTES
Player of the Game: C. Segura
Ballpark: Atlantic Gardens
Weather: Partly Cloudy (49 degrees), wind blowing in from center at 13 mph
Start Time: 7:05 pm
Time: 2:37
Attendance: 34125

kaosfere · 09-14-2008, 12:16 AM

eek. Checking in. Still on phone.

kaosfere · 09-14-2008, 12:17 AM

ah well. Congrats, DC. Great season!

Young Drachma · 09-14-2008, 12:36 AM

Young Drachma · 09-14-2008, 12:51 AM

1976 Off-season Thread - Front Office Football Central

Chief Rum · 09-14-2008, 01:55 AM

Big congrats to DC. The comeback is now complete.

And a nod toward kaosfere, too, who himself has taken a team from the depths all the way to the Classic. Well done, both of you.

TeachEnEspanol · 09-14-2008, 12:50 PM

Nice Job DC! Impressive season.

kaosfere · 09-14-2008, 01:07 PM

OK, now that I'm back home and not typing on my phone:

Very nice series, DC. Looking at the game records, it definitely seems like my pitching failed me. My lead closer blew both of the save attempts he got, and Sachi Yamada gave up 8 runs on 7 hits (!) on the way to a loss in both of the games he started. Way to fold under pressure, big guy! Glad I'm only paying you $440k a year.

I'm not sure this says more about my pitching or your hitting, DC, but I'm pretty sure the credit goes to your boys, especially considering your team's hitting performance during the regular season.

(How about Artie Wiley, though, with his CG shutout in game 1? And 8 innings of knock-out baseball in game 5? 1 run in 17 innings against arguably the best hitting team in FOOL. He's worth every penny.)

Regardless, much credit to you for a great season and for turning a stinker into a champion. A tip of my hat to you sir.

Young Drachma · 09-14-2008, 04:12 PM

I am proud of my team and how it got put together. I mean, I was still aggressive, but the bulk of the club is home grown guys and others who I overpaid for when others didn't want to. So I'm happy with it. I think that it's always kinda bittersweet when I win titles. But...that said, this one is the nicest of all of 'em, because well...there was a time when I didn't know if we'd ever get things turned around.

I feared far more from your ballclub for sure, your pitching staff is scary and they were clutch when it mattered most.

So you gave us a heck of a series and for sure, getting Wiley was the differencemaker for you, no doubt. You've got a great foundation up there.

kaosfere · 09-14-2008, 11:25 PM

Hey, DC, I decided to get a little creative tonight and made up a custom banner for myself. Do you think I could get you to place this one in the Hall?

Hope that's OK. Thanks!

Young Drachma · 09-14-2008, 11:27 PM

Done. Nice work!

Cringer · 09-15-2008, 09:48 AM

Congrats DC.

09-13-2008, 11:33 AM	#2
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	Last edited by Young Drachma : 09-14-2008 at 11:27 PM.

09-13-2008, 12:06 PM	#3
kaosfere College Prospect Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Chicagoland	I've been doing a bit more research. My performance this year was a dramatic 11 over the pyth. Curious about how this worked out, I looked at my game record. I'm 17-6 (.739!) in extra innings and 40-12 (.769!!) in one-run games. I tried going through my box scores to see how much those two sets overlapped, but some of the games in my schedule list linked to other games' boxes, making it difficult or impossible. (WTF? Stupid OOTP.) I'm going to do some comparisons, but primarily on one-run games, because I'm lazy and there's no simple way to seperate the extra-inning games. Team: 1R W-L (.avg) [1R/XI] Toronto: 40-12 (.769) [52/23] Valdosta: 24-25 (.490) [49/13] Rio Grande: 26-24 (.520) [50/17] Atlanta: 23-29 (.442) [52/20] New York: 29-27 (.518) [56/11] Texas: 21-26 (.447) [47/19] Baltimore: 23-36 (.390) [59/19] Brooklyn: 24-31 (.436) [55/20] Here's an ordered list of how each team's performance in the clutch differed from its overall record: Toronto: +.165 New York: +.050 Brooklyn: +.014 Rio Grande: +.001 Texas: -.021 Atlanta: -.045 Baltimore: -.052 Valdosta: -.101 I'm going to make up a new stat here, and call it CLUTCH: It's the above difference between a team's performance in one-run games and its overall record, times 1000 to make it easy. This gives the following CLUTCH results for 1975 CL teams: Toronto: 165 New York: 50 Brooklyn: 14 Rio Grande: 1 Texas: -21 Atlanta -45 Baltimore: -52 Valdosta: -101 (Statistical note: I plotted these results against each team's difference from its expected record, and found a positive correlation with a p-value of .0047 (two-sided). It definitely seems that a team's record in one-run games can be a very strong predictor of performance over or under expectations. This is perhaps unsurprising, but interesting to see confirmed, albeit over a very small data-set) Regardless, it seems that a good chunk of my team's ability to beat the expected record may be because of excellent performance in very close ballgames. This indicates that my positive performance over the pythagorean prediction may be because of good clutch hitting rather than "luck". I'd be interested in doing some more analysis to work on this and break out some metrics for it, but I'm sure some saber geek somewhere has already done this, no? ANYWAY, I just had a quick look at Chicago's performance in similar games. With a one-run record of 20-20, their PORG (Percentage of One-Run Games -- I just made that up right now, do you like it?) is .260 with an ORGR (One-Run Game Record) of .500 and a CLUTCH of -78. Toronto's PORG is .338, with an ORGR of .769. This indicates that, while Chicago gets into fewer tight games, their performance in clutch situations is worse than their performance overall. I have not yet looked at their player breakdown to see if that would give a good explanation for this general trend, but it bodes well for Toronto if the classic games are low-scoring. TL;DR: If my pitching can keep games close, my odds, as I see them, of winning the classic are a good bit higher than raw numbers may indicate. This turned into a bit more of a general stats monologue than something terribly relevant to the Classic, but I thought it might be worth sharing. Last edited by kaosfere : 09-13-2008 at 03:10 PM.

09-13-2008, 03:37 PM	#9
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	I really enjoy the stats monologue. Totally gonna blog about it over at Immersinik now. I'm convinced a new business of sabermetrics based on fake baseball modeling is upon us. __________________ CURRENT DYNASTY: NBA Players League \| WNBA SLOP: Commissioner FOOL: Colorado Rancheros FOBL: Semi-retired FOFC-FBCB: St. John's NCFA-FCS: Minnesota A&M Redhorse OOTP Mods: FOOL73 Homekit \| Arena Baseball \| 200+ History Quickstart \| OOTP Market Size Calculator FBCB/FBPB3 Mods

09-13-2008, 07:05 PM	#10
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	It's astounding that a team that was 7th in the CL in hitting has made it to the Classic. Even more astounding that their pitching was as hard core as it was. They don't have the lowest BVORP of any Classic potential-champion, that goes to the '63 and '64 Terriers. Those teams couldn't hit worth a lick in an era, where that was a huge thing. But they had the pitching to make up for it. This year's Toronto club is in the same mold. Last edited by Young Drachma : 09-13-2008 at 07:06 PM.

09-13-2008, 11:34 PM	#20
Tasan College Starter Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Houston, or there about	Hey guys just checking in. I survived Ike, but its left among the 3-4 million w/o power. I'm currently posting via my blackberry, and its data service was very spotty during daylight. I'll fire up my laptop and try to post manual instructions for my team before sim time, but if you don't hear from me before then, please just use some good judgement on how to handle my team. If it continues to look bad powerwise for the week, maybe someone else can run the team this season? CR? I'd like to keep the team, but just may not be able to export for a week. Let me know on the forums, because PMs are a pain on the blackberry. __________________ FOOLX: Spring Lions FOOL: Colorado Rancheros 2011 Golden Scribes winner for best Interactive Dynasty

09-13-2008, 12:13 PM	#4
kaosfere College Prospect Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Chicagoland	Dola, nice, DC. If you have time, any chance I could see that with 1975 right-justified and balanced by "TORONTO" or "TOR" on the left? Not sure if that would look good, or crap. Yay, banners! Yay Toronto's best record ever! Yay my first playoffs!

09-13-2008, 12:32 PM	#5
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	I love your new stats. Great work, here. I made some tweaks to the banner, too.

09-13-2008, 02:02 PM	#7
TimGuru High School Varsity Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Cape Cod, MA	Is this a league of agoraphobics or what? I felt the same way last night about having to go out with wife and her sister. I guess we won't be planning a league get together any time soon.

09-13-2008, 07:06 PM	#11
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	I think we should keep the Sunday sim in place, but that it'd be delightful to start simming the Classic on Saturday night. Or at least, reserving the option to do so. That's just me being eager....

09-13-2008, 08:51 PM	#12
kaosfere College Prospect Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Chicagoland	oh! The Classic is Sunday, not Saturday. I plum forgot! Hasn't been an issue for me yet. :P. If you want to run it tonight, I'm exported and ready. I'd be fine waiting though. Tipsy and on my phone and I think we're crashing at a friends tonight. Tomorrow probably preferable. No big either way though. Ok. Enough phone posting. Back to the booze!

09-13-2008, 09:04 PM	#14
kaosfere College Prospect Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Chicagoland	oh dear. What happened?

09-13-2008, 11:47 PM	#22
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	Okay...here we go. I won't be around tomorrow night until later, so I want to do this now so it's up there. There will be a new file out and then you can download that and tomorrow night's sim will still happen as normal, just no Classic since it'll have been done already. (We'll sim seven days tomorrow night, FYI.) Last edited by Young Drachma : 09-14-2008 at 12:02 AM.

09-14-2008, 12:16 AM	#29
kaosfere College Prospect Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Chicagoland	eek. Checking in. Still on phone.

09-14-2008, 12:17 AM	#30
kaosfere College Prospect Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Chicagoland	ah well. Congrats, DC. Great season!

09-14-2008, 12:36 AM	#31
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001

09-14-2008, 12:51 AM	#32
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	1976 Off-season Thread - Front Office Football Central

09-14-2008, 01:55 AM	#33
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Big congrats to DC. The comeback is now complete. And a nod toward kaosfere, too, who himself has taken a team from the depths all the way to the Classic. Well done, both of you. __________________ . . On this subject I do not wish to think, or speak, or write, with moderation. No! no! Tell a man whose house is on fire, to give a moderate alarm; tell him to moderately rescue his wife from the hands of the ravisher; tell the mother to gradually extricate her babe from the fire into which it has fallen; but urge me not to use moderation in a cause like the present. I am in earnest--I will not equivocate--I will not excuse--I will not retreat a single inch-- AND I WILL BE HEARD!!!

09-14-2008, 12:50 PM	#34
TeachEnEspanol College Starter Join Date: Aug 2008	Nice Job DC! Impressive season.

09-14-2008, 01:07 PM	#35
kaosfere College Prospect Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Chicagoland	OK, now that I'm back home and not typing on my phone: Very nice series, DC. Looking at the game records, it definitely seems like my pitching failed me. My lead closer blew both of the save attempts he got, and Sachi Yamada gave up 8 runs on 7 hits (!) on the way to a loss in both of the games he started. Way to fold under pressure, big guy! Glad I'm only paying you $440k a year. I'm not sure this says more about my pitching or your hitting, DC, but I'm pretty sure the credit goes to your boys, especially considering your team's hitting performance during the regular season. (How about Artie Wiley, though, with his CG shutout in game 1? And 8 innings of knock-out baseball in game 5? 1 run in 17 innings against arguably the best hitting team in FOOL. He's worth every penny.) Regardless, much credit to you for a great season and for turning a stinker into a champion. A tip of my hat to you sir. __________________ FOOL: Toronto Osprey (1973-1988) 1161 - 1149 -- 1981 FOOL Champions, 1975 CL Champions Toronto Osprey (2001) 89-73 -- 2001 CL Champions SBL: Charlotte Monarchs (1992-1994) 237 - 186 Last edited by kaosfere : 09-14-2008 at 04:44 PM.

09-14-2008, 04:12 PM	#36
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	I am proud of my team and how it got put together. I mean, I was still aggressive, but the bulk of the club is home grown guys and others who I overpaid for when others didn't want to. So I'm happy with it. I think that it's always kinda bittersweet when I win titles. But...that said, this one is the nicest of all of 'em, because well...there was a time when I didn't know if we'd ever get things turned around. I feared far more from your ballclub for sure, your pitching staff is scary and they were clutch when it mattered most. So you gave us a heck of a series and for sure, getting Wiley was the differencemaker for you, no doubt. You've got a great foundation up there.

09-14-2008, 11:25 PM	#37
kaosfere College Prospect Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Chicagoland	Hey, DC, I decided to get a little creative tonight and made up a custom banner for myself. Do you think I could get you to place this one in the Hall? Hope that's OK. Thanks! __________________ FOOL: Toronto Osprey (1973-1988) 1161 - 1149 -- 1981 FOOL Champions, 1975 CL Champions Toronto Osprey (2001) 89-73 -- 2001 CL Champions SBL: Charlotte Monarchs (1992-1994) 237 - 186

09-14-2008, 11:27 PM	#38
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	Done. Nice work!

09-15-2008, 09:48 AM	#39
Cringer Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Edinburg,TX	Congrats DC. __________________ You Stole Fizzy Lifting drinks! You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and steralized, so you get NOTHING! You lose!

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