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Old 08-22-2005, 11:00 PM   #1
Lathum
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NFL Over Under WINS help me pick

OK, for a few years I have been wanting to do a 4 way parlay on 4 teams win total for the NFL season. For those of you who don't know what that is, it is a bet where you take 4 teams and bet that they are going to have more or less wins then the posted number. All 4 teams would have to win on their selection to win the bet.

I decided it would be fun to enlist everyone's help and keep track through the season. Below I am going to post all teams win total number. All I ask is that you select 4 teams and weather or not you think they will win more then the number or less. If I get enough participation I will take the 4 most popular selections for a $100 bet.


You may notice not every team is there, the reason is if a team has a big issue such as the Giants with Mannings elbow then they won't be listed.






Arizona Cardinals 7.5 wins

Atlanta Falcons 9.5 wins

Baltimore Ravens 9.5 wins

Buffalo Bills 8.5 wins

Carolina Panthers 9.5 wins

Chicago Bears 6.5 wins

Cincinnati Bengals 7.5 wins

Cleveland Browns 4.5 wins

Dallas Cowboys 8.5 wins

Denver Broncos 8.5 wins

Detroit Lions Over 8.5 wins

Green Bay Packers 7.5 wins

Houston Texans 7.5 wins

Indianapolis Colts 11.5 wins

Jacksonville Jaguars 8.5 wins

Kansas City Chiefs Over 8.5 wins

Minnesota Vikings 9.5 wins

New England Patriots 10.5 wins

New Orleans Saints 7.5 wins

New York Jets Over 9.5 wins

Oakland Raiders Over 7.5 wins

Philadelphia Eagles Over 11.5 wins

Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5 wins

St. Louis Rams 8.5 wins

San Diego Chargers 8 wins

San Francisco 49ers 4.5 wins

Seattle Seahawks Over 8.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 wins

Tennessee Titans 6.5 wins

Washington Redskins 7.5 wins

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Old 08-22-2005, 11:02 PM   #2
Lathum
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So for example mine would be

Saints over 7.5
Bears under 6.5
Chiefs over 8.5
Chargers over 8
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Old 08-22-2005, 11:09 PM   #3
sabotai
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Arizona under 7.5 wins
Tampa Bay over 6.5 wins
Houston over 7.5 wins
Jacksonville under 8.5 wins
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Old 08-22-2005, 11:10 PM   #4
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Lions under 8.5
49ers under 4.5
Patriots over 10.5
Vikings over 9.5
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Old 08-22-2005, 11:11 PM   #5
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The ones i immediately like are Patriots over and 49ers under (i see no reason they wont be HORRIBLE again).
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Old 08-22-2005, 11:11 PM   #6
stevew
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I'd take the Over on the Browns, Niners, Patriots, and the Packers.

Its hard to go through a whole season and only win 4 games, even if the Browns and Niners both arent great, i think they can limp to 5 wins, just by dumb luck. The Browns lost 3 games last year by a FG, meaning they could have easily gone 7-9. I cant forsee the Pats only winning 10 games or less, they havent changed all that much from last year, I'd say they win 12 or 13 at least. The Packers might be on a down year, its just hard to think that Favre will only lead them to 7 victories this year, they have won 8 or more games a year from '92 on.
I'd also consider taking the Titans for under, since they gutted their team, it may be hard for them to get to 7 wins.
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Old 08-22-2005, 11:15 PM   #7
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Nevermind, the Under on the Niners, only 2 games look like they reasonably have a shot at winning.
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Old 08-22-2005, 11:18 PM   #8
Fonzie
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Patriots over 10.5
49ers under 4.5
Lions under 8.5
Packers over 7.5
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Old 08-22-2005, 11:31 PM   #9
vtbub
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Philly under 11.5
Niners under 4.5
Patriots over 10.5
Bills over 8.5
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Old 08-22-2005, 11:32 PM   #10
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Buffalo Bills under 8.5 wins -- Growing pains with an inexperienced QB and in a pretty tough division.
Detroit Lions under 8.5 wins -- I don't trust the Lions to win anywhere near this many games.
Oakland Raiders over 7.5 wins -- Should have a powerhouse offense and play in a relatively unimpressive division.
St. Louis Rams over 8.5 wins -- I think this is the season that Bulger stays healthy and has a big year.
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Old 08-22-2005, 11:34 PM   #11
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good stuff guys, keep it up!!
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Old 08-22-2005, 11:36 PM   #12
Lathum
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BTW a $100 will pay roughly $1000


don't fuck it up
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Old 08-23-2005, 12:09 AM   #13
timmynausea
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Rams over 8.5 - They supposedly play the easiest schedule in the league this year.
Arizona under 7.5 - When was the last time they won over 7.5?
49ers under 4.5 - Horrid.
Bears under 6.5 - No QB.
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Old 08-23-2005, 01:38 AM   #14
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Bears under
Bills under
Panthers over
Seahawks over
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Old 08-23-2005, 01:40 AM   #15
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Lathum - where are you placing your bet? Are you using an online site?
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Old 08-23-2005, 01:46 AM   #16
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BENGALS OVER - that's no homer bet, 7.5... wow their line should be 9.5
CHIEFS OVER
TITANS UNDER
COWBOYS UNDER
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Old 08-23-2005, 01:46 AM   #17
timmynausea
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I think the Bengals will be over 7.5, but I also don't feel as confident in that as I do in a few others.
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Old 08-23-2005, 02:22 AM   #18
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San Diego over
Detroit under
Chicago under
New England over
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Old 08-23-2005, 03:18 AM   #19
Nwobhm
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I took the raiders under 8 down in vegas last week myself, and am considering taking the 'skins under 7.5 as well.
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Old 08-23-2005, 08:42 AM   #20
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Redskins under
Oakland under
Pittsburgh over
Jacksonville under
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Old 08-23-2005, 08:50 AM   #21
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingfc22
Lathum - where are you placing your bet? Are you using an online site?
yeas, I use sportsinteraction, however, they don't have these lines posted yet. I got these lines from a vegas sportsbook site
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Old 08-23-2005, 08:50 AM   #22
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Cincinnati Bengals OVER 7.5 wins
Green Bay Packers OVER 7.5 wins
Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 11.5 wins
San Diego Chargers OVER 8 wins
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Old 08-23-2005, 09:00 AM   #23
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Arizona under 7.5 wins
Green Bay over 7.5 wins
New England over 10.5 wins
San Fran under 4.5 wins
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Old 08-23-2005, 09:02 AM   #24
albionmoonlight
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Atlanta Falcons UNDER 9.5 wins

Baltimore Ravens UNDER 9.5 wins

Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 11.5 wins

Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 9.5 wins

(I also see New Orleans Saints OVER 7.5 wins, but that is through the rose colored glasses of a fan, so not very reliable).
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Old 08-23-2005, 09:08 AM   #25
digamma
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History says Falcons Under. They had a winning season last year and that's never happened twice in a row.
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Old 08-23-2005, 09:14 AM   #26
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Hmm. That adds up to 247.5 wins. That means the Giants and Dolphins have only 8.5 wins between them in this setup.
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Old 08-23-2005, 09:21 AM   #27
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Carolina OVER
Chicago UNDER
Minnesota OVER
Oakland OVER
Green Bay - PASS

As a Packer fan, I'd stay the hell away from that number. Too many injuries right now, unsettled O-line, No TE, bad secondary.. head says under 7.5 but, Favre has looked sharp so far and they haven't had less than 8 wins under Favre so.. history says over 7.5.. Favre goes out, this is a 3 or 4 win team...
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Old 08-23-2005, 11:16 AM   #28
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Only a few unders really stick out to me.

Arizona UNDER (bad teams that are expected to be the cinderellas are the ones that fail to do so. This isn't a 8+ win team in terms of talent.)

Philly UNDER (11.5 is just way too high)

Jax UNDER (Offense has talent, but playcalling will be quite bad, and Taylor is a big ? )

Bills UNDER (That division with basically a rookie QB? no thanks. )
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Old 08-23-2005, 11:54 AM   #29
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Houston Texans 7.5 wins - OVER
Oakland Raiders 7.5 wins - UNDER
San Diego Chargers 8 wins - OVER
Minnesota Vikings 9.5 wins - UNDER
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Old 08-23-2005, 12:01 PM   #30
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Arizona UNDER
Houston OVER
Cinci OVER
Philly UNDER

I really want to go with Carolina OVER but its too much of a homer pick.
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Old 08-23-2005, 02:53 PM   #31
sabotai
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I wouldn't touch the 4.5 bets. In this league, you can stumble over yourself and land 5 wins due to parity. 4.5 is too low for any team, even the 49ers.

I also wouldn't touch the San Diego bet since you're reduced to 7 and under and 9 and over. Neither an over or under wins if they get 8 wins which reduces your chances of winning with either bet.
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Old 08-23-2005, 07:00 PM   #32
Lathum
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Thanks for all the input, keep it coming !!

so far there are 2 run away choices

SF -4.5
NE +10.5

bump for the night people.
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Old 08-23-2005, 07:10 PM   #33
Joe
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after examining, my top play would be PITTSBURGH over 9.5. They went 15-1 with a rookie QB last year, who is sure to be even better this season. They also return many of the players on the #1 defense in the league.
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Old 08-23-2005, 07:17 PM   #34
Joe
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I also like Carolina over 9.5, if they can stay healthy this season they are my pick (like most everyone else's) to take the NFC. Also, the Bucs are worth a look at over 6.5. A lot of close losses last season, and despite a 5-11 record, they were outscored only 304-301, with the #5 D.
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Old 08-23-2005, 07:21 PM   #35
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one more thing-- Denver was the only team last season to finish top 5 in both offense and defense, so they're worth a look at 8.5. Although they play in one of the toughest divisions in the league.
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Old 08-25-2005, 12:01 PM   #36
robbgmaier
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Green Bay 7.5 (OVER)
Oakland 7.5 (UNDER)
Pittsburgh 9.5 (OVER)
Chicago 6.5 (UNDER)
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Old 08-25-2005, 12:26 PM   #37
TroyF
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Denver 8.5 - Over. They always win 9 or 10. I see no reason they won't do that again this year.

Rams 8.5 - Over. Tougher division this year, but they should be good for 9 wins.

Niners 4.5 - Under. If that O-Line doesn't improve, they'll be lucky to win 2.

Ravens 9.5 - Under. Risky pick as they have the leagues best overall D and some decent offensive talent. But I can't see Kyle Boller leading them to 10 wins. i think they'll have some injuries this year.
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Old 08-25-2005, 12:48 PM   #38
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Bengals OVER
Browns OVER
Indy UNDER
Steelers OVER
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Old 08-25-2005, 12:49 PM   #39
albionmoonlight
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jetpunk2000
Bengals OVER
Browns OVER
. . .
Steelers OVER

You must not think much of the Ravens
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Old 08-25-2005, 12:56 PM   #40
jetpunk2000
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Originally Posted by albionmoonlight
You must not think much of the Ravens
Hehe...not true. But I think the #'s are low for all 3 of those teams. It'd not inconceivable for that division to look something like this:

Pitt 11-5
Balt 10-6
Cincy 9-7
Clev 6-10

The Browns have a tough sched, but I think Romeo will have a big influence. Call it a hunch.
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Old 08-25-2005, 01:04 PM   #41
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Philly UNDER 11.5 (nO way do I see them winning 12+ games with that offense)
Bengals OVER 7.5 (A .500 finish should be no problem for them this year. )
Indianapolis UNDER 11.5 (I could see them winning 10 or 11, not 12 though)
Titans UNDER 6.5 (5 or 6 wins is perfect for them)
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Old 08-25-2005, 02:42 PM   #42
sabotai
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Originally Posted by George W Bush
Also, the Bucs are worth a look at over 6.5. A lot of close losses last season, and despite a 5-11 record, they were outscored only 304-301, with the #5 D.

I think TB over 6.5 is the safest pick of all of these. It would take total collapse of the team for them not to win at least 7 this year. Most of their loses were close games and they did beat Atlanta and KC last year, so you know they can hang with some of the better teams in the league.
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Old 08-25-2005, 02:56 PM   #43
Blackadar
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Here are my locks.

Steelers OVER 9.5 (think they'll go from 15 wins to under 10?)
Bills UNDER 8.5 (tough division - NE, NYJ, better Miami team and a new QB)
Green Bay OVER 7.5 (Farve with a losing record?)

The 4th one is a bit tougher.

I like Cincy to be OVER 7.5 wins
I like Tampa to be OVER 6.5 wins
I like Carolina to be OVER 9.5 wins
I like Jacksonville to be UNDER 8.5 wins
I like Atlanta to be UNDER 9.5 wins

but I'd have to go with...

Philly UNDER 11.5 wins (don't think their Offense is good enough for 12 wins).
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Old 08-25-2005, 02:58 PM   #44
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I can't fathom the Bills going 9-7.
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Old 08-25-2005, 05:40 PM   #45
jetpunk2000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rkmsuf
I can't fathom the Bills going 9-7.

Well, they did last year. It all depends on Losman. The D is going to be top 5. I would love it if they didn't come close to 9-7, but I wouldn't be shocked if they finished with 9 or above.
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Old 08-25-2005, 06:07 PM   #46
saldana
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i will go with:
bears under
browns under
niners under (as i run a samuri sword through myself)
packers over

and tails will be the coin toss on opening night...not like you would ever bet on the coin toss or anything like that....or wnba basketball games(and then watch said game on the Oxygen network)
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Old 08-25-2005, 06:11 PM   #47
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San Diego OVER
Philly UNDER
Vikings UNDER
Cinci OVER
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Old 12-27-2005, 10:40 AM   #48
digamma
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Interesting bump.

Nice work albion and Coffee.
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Old 12-27-2005, 11:07 AM   #49
TroyF
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I got three of the four right. Damned Rams.
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Old 12-27-2005, 11:13 AM   #50
JeeberD
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Two of mine are locks and I just need the Pats to win to make it three out of four. Stinkin' Vikes screwed me though...
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