The Troy & Chief Show, Week Six...

[Chief Rum]

All right, it's been an exciting weekend for our hosts, as Troy has been blitzkrieged by sensitive Yankees fans. You see, Troy, these are the risks you take when you go up against Yankee fans. Just be glad you didn't get any unwanted batteries.

And for me, well, okay it's been an exciting week for Troy. Anyway, I am hoping he will be checking in with some picks. He may or may not. I guess we'll see. For now, I will do my own picks.

I guess if there's one good thing, it is that if we go without Troy's analysis, you guys will have no idea anymore if I am talking up some good analysis or just pulling it out of my ass.

Man, I feel like Michael Irvin. Without Chris Berman (aka Troy)there to make me look like an idiot, I might be a friggin' genius this week. One can only hope.

I'm not planning on being too wordy this week, but I will touch on each game (not including the Sunday and Monday games, of course, until later).

So here we go.

Chief Rum

[Chief Rum]

BTW, I never officially picked a winner from Monday night's game.

If I were to pick Indy now, of course, you guys would all say I am just picking them because I know they won (and in spectacular comeback fashion). And you would be right. I thought Tampa Bay was going to win. I don't know what Troy thought.

Back to this week.

CR

[Chief Rum]

Tampa Bay at Washington

With the Buccs banged up a bit, smarting from that horrible loss to Indy Monday, and going on the road against another good passing team, you might think this would be a good week to catch them. And it is. the bad news for the Kins, though, is that their style of game plays right into the Buccs' hands. Tampa Bay has some good passrushers, and while they haven't played all that well yet this season, Sunday they will go up against the worst pass protecting group in the league (17 sacks allowed by Washington's line). I suspect Patrick Ramsey is going to meet the turf an awful lot. Monday, Peyton Manning tore the Buccs apart with a blistering hot completion rate, and then burned them long with Marvin Harrison when they sucked it in. Well, guess what? Much as I think Ramsey and Lavarenues Coles are up and coming stars, they aren't part of a high-percentage passing attack, and they aren't as good as Indy's pass-and-catch duo. Toss on the fact that the Skins' scamperbacks are pretty much exactly what the Buccs like to chase down, and you have a score like last Monday going into the fourth quarter. This time, though, the Buccs hold on. 28-17.

[Chief Rum]

Carolina at Indianapolis

One thing that gets lost in all the hoopla over the Colts so far is that they still have no running game, and still can't stop the run. But no one can stop their passing attack, so no one notices. It will be interesting to see if this is the week it all comes crashing down. After a thrilling win over the Buccaneers, it would be easy to let down this week at home against another NFC opponent. Whether the Edge ruyns or not, he will be hurtung, so that means the prospects for a good running game Sunday are dim. The Panthers counter with one of the best running attacks in the league (second-best to be exact), and a huge horse of a back in Stephen Davis whom has quietly been as dominating in his fashion as Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison have been in theirs the past couple weeks. He should go hogwild against the Colts Sunday. Fortunately for the Colts, the Panthers have been doing ti with a bit of smoke and mirrors, for all their league-leading 12 points allowed, the vaunted efense isn't forcing turnovers and actually ranks in the lower half of most league statistical indicators on defense. What does that mean? A red hot Manning and Harrison should be back in action again. The Panthers will score a surprising amount, but the Colts will prove to be too much at home. 35-21.

[Chief Rum]

New York Giants at New England

Troy formulated the rule in Week Two, after the Giants essentially allowed the Cowboys to absolutely shock them early, and then they missed on some brilliant chances to win it anyway. His rule was basically that the Giants wil find a way to keep it close. No matter what. This game was likely going to be close anyway. The fact the Giants are involved practically ensures it will go into overtime. But enough of that; what do the matchups tell ya? Well, you might guess that stuffing Ricky Williams for 39 yards on 22 carries is a good job, and it is. But overall the Giants haven't been too good against the run, and that's the best part of their defense. Their secondary is getting shredded for the most passing yards in the game in the entire league. That's right, no one is giving it up through the air like the G-Men. To me, this has one of those huge Tom Brady days written all over it. He hasn't been great this year, but he has played better recently, as shown by him finally using Deion Branch and Troy Brown last week. I think the Pats will be inspired by their victory over the tough Titans last week and beat out the enigmatic Giants ina high-scoring affair. 37-31.

[Chief Rum]

Houston at Tennessee

Do you think Dom Capers was paying attention to last week's Tennessee-New England game while his team was on a bye? What do you think? Yeah, me, too. And you know what he might have seen? Bill Belicheck showing him a gameplan for how to stop the Titans' efficient passing attack. Belicheck stuffed the box and played his guys in a tight, short zone, daring Steve McNair to throw it long and away from his safer outs and short slants. And McNair had his worst game of the year so far, because the Patriots exposed one very pertinent fact about the Titans--they only have one good receiver (Derrick Mason) and they have absolutely, positively, no running game whatsoever. So I am guessing Capers really took notice, and implemented some similar schemes this week in practice. It's just too bad that Aaron Glenn is out, so the Texans don't have anyone with a prayer of sticking with Mason, and the Titans can beat the Texans' front seven in a tight zone anyway. The Titans will come out focused and win this one at home, 24-17.

[Chief Rum]

Kansas City at Green Bay

Both teams feature powerful running games, among the best in the league. Both teams suck at stopping the run. I don't see any reason why we won't see a lot more exciting runs from Mssrs. Green and Holmes today. In the end, though, these tend to cancel each other out. That leaves us with the passing game. Trent Green has had some good moments, but by and large, he has been throwing very short, hardly moving the ball at all through the air. Further dampening things is that he isn't really completing that higha percentage of passes either. Meanwhile, Brett Favre, known for his strong arm, is making a name for himself this year for being very accurate and not stretching things too much. Go figure. The differences here are that Favre is doing a better job of running the short game than Green, and with Favre, you know you still have to respect the deep ball. If Favre avoids his penchant for throwing dumb interceptions against a ballhwaking defense like the Chiefs--and he usually does pretty well with this at home--he should be more effective than Green and that will prove to be the difference in the game. Oh yeah, and Dante Hall will NOT score on a return today. 38-31, Packers.

[Chief Rum]

Oakland at Cleveland

I feel so sorry for the Raiders. I know everyone loves to hate them, but between age catching up, injuries all over the place (this weeks' injury special is the line of scrimmage, where up to six players might be affected all told on the Raiders' two lines, inluding both starting defensive tackles and monster tackle Lincoln Kennedy), and Gannon just falling apart, this is a team in self-destruct mode right now. This doesn't figure to be the week they pull out of it either. Anyone else feel like God turned on a Madden 1998 game and set up Donovan McNabb and Tim Couch's characteristics to switch in 2003? I mean, Couch has been very accurate, throwing longer passes with touch, and, heck, he even ran one into the zone last week. The Browns got an uplifting victory over the Steelers last week. The question is can they build on it? They should be able to. The defense has been excellent against the pass this year, harassing quarterbacks, forcing mistakes, and keeping completion percentages low and long gains non-existent (not that that will matter against the Raiders' five-yard post and fly routes). Frankly, Raiders coach Bill Callahan would be very smart to go to a running game that has actually been very good this year. But he won't. We have already seen that Callahan is a pass-or-die guy, and he's one foot in the grave right now. Figure the Raiders to struggle against the Browns' defense, and Couch to shred an injury-marred defense with his multiple options at receiver. The Browns take this on, 28-17.

[Chief Rum]

Philadelphia at Dallas

Don't expect a lot of running in this one, folks. We have here a matchup of the top two run defenses in the league. The Cowboys are a surprise in this because, well, they have been sucking the past few years, and the Eagles are a surprise for this, too, because they have been literally bowled over on defense by injuries. But here we are. Boys' back Troy Hambrick is hit-and-miss anyway, and even with the return of Troy Vincent, the Eagles secondary figures to be very vulnerable still. Quincy Carter and his three receivers should be bale to do some serious damage. Unlike the Cowboys, the Eagles running game is actually pretty solid and getting even better. Anyone else notice this late surge happens to coincide not only with the return of semi-normal play by Donovan McNabb, but also the steady rise of carries by Bryan Westbrook? Man, why the heck is Andy Reid even bothering giving Duce Staley and Corell Buckhalter carries? Westbrook seems a threat to break it open every time he touches it. That said, this game will once again rest in McNabb's hands. He played better against Buffalo and Washington than he did early in the season,b ut he's not quite there yet. The Cowboys have a solid defense, and the way the passing game has been working, they should make mincemeat of the Eagles secondary, even if Vincent completely shuts down Glenn. Cowboys, 31-17.

[Chief Rum]

Miami at Jacksonville

Everyone has made a habit of discounting the Jags this year, and I have had a growing suspcion this is a mistake. For one thing, I am beginning to have a healthy respect for Jack Del Rio's ability to gameplan. And second, they actually have some pretty good talent mixed in here and there. Today they will face off with a Dolphins team that is hard-pressed to put two good games in a row together, and they are on a streak of three (although none impressively). It's about time for the Fins' next blunder. The question is, can Byron Leftwich keep from screwing it up? Against the Dolphins, you either need a huge, stretch the field offense like Houston in Week One (the Jags don't have the receivers outside of Jimmy Smith, and Leftwich is still developing his deep touch in the NFL arena), or you need a tight, efficient short passing game with big, physical receivers. Well,t he Jags have some size in their receivers corps, but if the receivers can't get open and Leftwich is trying to hit them softly in zone holes (which is probably the last thing an NFL QB learns), how can you expect to move the ball? And, no, Fred Taylor and the hit-and-miss running game isn't the answer--they won't likely have a good day against the tough Fins' run defense. So how do the Jags have a chance? The Fins will keep it close, of course. Miami is hurt along the line, and have been running horribly. Ricky Williams barely looks like himself, and the Jaguars are pretty solid in run defense. That means the Dolphins will have to attack Jacksonville's injury-riddled and talent-deficient secondary to score consistently, and I haven't seen any indication that Jay Fielder is capable of that. So I'm going to go out on a limb that Leftwich will keep his mistakes toi a minimum, the Dolphins will play down to their competition, Del Rio will gameplan well, and the home crowd will give some support in a tight 17-13 upset. Jags take it.

[TroyF]

For the record, I was torn on the Monday Night game. I've said the Bucs could be beat if you attacked them deep. Having Kelly out certainly helped in that regard, but I thought the Colts could move the ball better than many of the other "high octane" offenses the Bucs have played. I probably would have picked the Bucs though.

TroyF

[Chief Rum]

Chicago at New Orleans

If one team tries desperately to do something that the other team has absolutely no ability to do, who wins? Or more specifically, if Kordell Stewart targets some Saints unis today, will the two-interception pass defense actually catch the ball? This might be a day where Stewart can avoid the miscues, especially coming off of some solid play the past couple games. The Bears' offense has been helped immensely by the re-emergence of Anthony "A-Train" Thomas, who has been very strong in leading what is turning into one of the NFL's better running attacks. Despite their injur problems, the Saints have actually been fairly decent against the run, but I am guessing they won't have an answer for Thomas. So if they don't intercept the ball either (which is where Chicago typically trips up), then the normally offensively-inept Bears might actually score some points today. Some may say, game over then for the Saints, the way they have been playing. But another big secret is that, while Aaron Brooks continues to make some odd mistakes and no one seems to be able to breakthrough with any gamebreaking plays, the Saints offense is still pretty decent. Deuce McAllister is coming off his best game of the season against Carolina, and while Brooks hasn't been airing it out effectively, he is completing the ball fairly well and moving the offense. If the defense were able to stay off the field more, the Saints might not look like such a joke right now. Well, good news, New orleans' fans, because the Bears have just about the worst defense there is, and today they will play without Warrcik Holdman or Keith Traylor. The Saints' offense should come alive again, and the boys on Bourbon Street will be whooping up a victory going away. 34-24, Saints.

[Chief Rum]

I'm going to go catch a few hours of shuteye. Then later on, I'll do the afternoon games.

Enjoy the morning games, East Coasters.

CR

[TroyF]

Tampa Bay at Washington

Tampa Bay poses a lot of problems for the Redskins. This will be the first time Ramsey has faced a cover two defense that plays like the Bucs. If the Redskins are smart, they'll feature Betts a lot more than Candidate today. The Bucs D-Line should tear up the offensive line of the Redskins. Ramsey will be spending a lot of time on his back. If the Redskins are able to move the ball at all, they need to minimize all of their mistakes. Their second and third WR have a tendancy to drop the ball. You can't do that against Tampa Bay and win. On the other side of the ball, Michael Pittman has quietly started running better than he has at any other time in his Tampa Bay tenure. It isn't only the yards he's getting, it's how he's getting them. The tough Michael Pittman is back. The one who runs over LB's and makes tough catches out of the backfield. If he can continue to do that, the Bucs offense will be a little better. I look for the Bucs to topple the 'Skins, Bucs 27-16.

[TroyF]

Carolina at Indionapolis

What an incredible two week span for Peyton Manning and the Colts. He still needs to win some playoff games, but I think he has less critics now than when he started a couple of weeks ago. The comeback win against Tampa Bay was one for the ages. I think the front four of Carolina are better than the front four of Tampa Bay. The back seven isn't at the Tampa Bay level. That means missed tackles by the LB's where runs of 3 yards become 7. Dan Morgan may be one of the more overrated LB's in the league. Considering the guy never gets touched, having 10 total solo tackles in his two starts is pretty pathetic. For his career, he's averaged only 4.8 solo stops a start. That just isn't good enough. Carolina needs more production out of him if they want to reach their full potential on defense. The key to the Colts is being able to attack that second level. I look for a lot of underneath routes to be available. I'll predict Dallas Clark and Marcus Pollard will combine for more catches and yards than Marvin Harrison. I wonder what odds I could get with that one in Vegas? As for the Panthers, they revolve around Stephen Davis, the best unheard of back in the league. I might be one of the few people who thinks Jake Delhomme has a chance to be a pretty good QB. I don't think he's ready yet. I expect the confident Colts will hold off the Panthers, Colts 24-13.

[TroyF]

New York Giants at New England

In one corner we have the New England Patriots, an overacheiving group of guys who are defying all odds to win games they probably shouldn't. In the other corner we have the New York Giants, a team that is playing far below expectations. On the positive side for the Giants, Jeremy Shockey finally showed why he gets the publicity. He had a terrific game against the Dolphins. On the down side, what has happened to the rest of the offense? Yikes. For New England the new name is Mike Cloud. He had a terrific game last week. At the end of the day, I agree with Chief. This is going to be a close game. This is exactly the type of game the Giants could come out and win. Yet, when you face a team of overacheivers and put them up against a team playing below their talent level, you have to go with the first group, Patriots 31-27.

[TroyF]

Houston at Tennessee

You really have to wonder about the Titans strategy with McNair, dont' you? I mean, first they sit him for two years and when they do let him play, he throws the ball about 6 times a game. They make sure he has a security blanket in Wycheck and some good pass catching backs out of the backfield. Then, when he's developed into one of the top 5 QB's in the game, they decide to give him no running game at all. Here are some numbers to look over: Tennessee has 16 rushing first downs. That would be 30th in the league. They are averaging 2.6 yards per carry. That would be 31rst in the league. These are numbers that make the Raiders of last year look like the Dickerson led Rams. Yet, somehow, the Titans are 12th in the league in third down conversions at 40%. They are 8th in average points per game. If it wasn't for McNair, we wouldn't be talking about the Titans being potential Super Bowl contenders, we'd be talking about them getting the #1 pick in the draft next year. As for the Texans, they come into the game fresh off of their bye week and their upset win over Jacksonville. Lost in that Jacksonville game, was the sickening amoung of holes that defense showed. Look for rookie Antwone Peek to have a nice game today. It won't be enough, Titans 28-20.

[TroyF]

Kansas City at Green Bay

OK Packer fans, they proved me wrong. Green Bay played a terrific game against the Seahawks and looked every bit like a team that could be very dangerous as the season progresses. I still want to see more, but I now see what you've been telling me the past month. On the other side. . . If I had to pick one team which would fall on its face and go on a 3-5 game losing streak, it would be the Kansas City Chiefs. No, that isn't a bitter Denver fan crying about last week. I've been saying for a few weeks that I haven't really been as impressed with this team as everyone else seems to be. They rank 15 in offense, and have zero ability to get the ball to their WR. They rank 26th in yards allowed per game. This is after facing the Texans, Chargers, and Ravens as 3 of their 5 foes. They rank in the lower half of the league in both rushing AND pass defense. It's nice those they have those intangibles, but if they don't fix both the offense and the defense, they are going to start a slide that won't be stopped. Dante Hall can't bail them out all the time. For the Packers to win this game, they need to do 3 things:

1) Play the same Brett Farve they played last week. The guy who didn't try to force everything and played within the system.

2) Don't kick the ball to Dante Hall. Period.

3) Limit the BIG plays from Holmes. He's going to get his yards, but if you can just contain him, the Chiefs do not have the WR who can beat you.

Rumor is, Willie Roaf doesn't play in this game. I've been Packer bashing all year. I guess it's time to give credit where it is due, Packers 31-23.

[TroyF]

OK guys, running out of time. The rest will be rapid fire picks:

Oakland at Cleveland - The Raiders are not a good football team right now. The Browns are developing into one. Still, I worry about the Browns LB's against the crossing routes the Raiders will throw at them. I'll take the Raiders while cheering for the Browns, Raiders 24-21.

Philadelphia at Dallas - Philly has so many injured players on defense. Parcells has Quincy playing lights out. Still, I can't believe the Eagles will lose this game. Roy Williams needs to have a big game for the 'Boys to pull of the upset. I like the boys from Philly, Eagles 19-13.

Miami at Jacksonville - Leftwich faces a real defense. I like Byron. I like him a lot. I don't think he can solve the Dolphin CB's in just his third start. The one thing the Jags have going for them is the simplistic offense run by the Dolphins. Del Rio will likely come up with a good gameplan to contain it. I've been hyping Rashean Mathis all year. He grabs an INT last week and it gets called back on a penalty by a teammate. For shame. . . Dolphins 23-17.

Chicago at New Orleans - Anthony Thomas, good to see you back. The Saints simply have too many weapons in this one though, Saints 38-20.

Pittsburgh at Denver - As a Bronco fan, this one scares me. I think it'll be closer than people expect. Denver may even take an L here. I'll give the edge to Denver based on the Portis factor, Broncos 24-23.

Buffalo at New York Jets - Yuk. No Eric Moulds=boring. What happened to Josh Reed? Major dissapointment. The Bills NEED this football game. I think they take it, 20-10.

Baltimore at Arizona - Arizona confuses Boller into some mistakes. That's right, I think the Cardinals will make a few defensive plays this week. Shocking, I know. . . Cardinals 23-16.

San Francisco at Seattle - The 'Hawks rebound from last week's disaster. The Niners long season continues, 'Hawks 31-23.

TroyF

[Chief Rum]

I'm out of time, so I'll be quick:

Baltimore at Arizona: Should be a close one. I think Zona rights the ship for one week and takes this one, 24-21.

Pittsburgh at Denver: I foresaw this being a close one, too. We know the Steelers have talent. They just haven't been using it. But I think the Broncos have the horses to stick it out in this one. Broncos, 31-28.

Buffalo at New York Jets: No Moulds does indeed remove a certain excitement from this one. Look for the Bills to go with more of a ground game, and the Jets' passing attack will run into a toughie in the Bills. 31-24, Bills.

CR

[pjstp20]

Originally posted by Chief Rum
Miami at Jacksonville

Today they will face off with a Dolphins team that is hard-pressed to put two good games in a row together, and they are on a streak of three (although none impressively).

Overall this was a pretty good overview of the game which almost came true. The score was deceptivly lop sided. However, I do take exception with this comment. It's very true that the Dolphin offense has looked like crap pretty much every game this year, but all of their victories were overwhelmingly impressive on the other side of the ball. The Dolphins D is number 1 in the league in creating turnovers and keeping the opponents off the board (no opponent over 10 points since the Texans blunder). I know that this offense isn't Suber Bowl Caliber or even 2 wins in the playoffs caliber but the defense is, right now at least.

[Chief Rum]

The defense has a lot going for it, no doubt about it. It's entirely the defense that the Dolphins have been able to win the games that they have.

But I wouldn't just assume greatness just yet. They are still pathetic on the pass rush (why, where TF is Taylor?), and they have been exposed as vulnerable to a very good passing attack, especially with multiple options. That could really hurt them if they are playing Indianapolis or Denver or a healthy Bills squad in the playoffs.

Top to bottom, I don't think there is another defense that puts as many quality players on the field as the Dolphins do. But they haven't been nearly as good stopping yardage gained as they have points, and that tells me the points could be coming. There are stil la bunch of things they need to do to get to the top, IMO, and right now I would still rate them behind the Buccaneers on defense.

CR

[Chief Rum]

San Francisco at Seattle

One more game to go today. Seattle is stinging a bit from falling to Green Bay, and will consider this a statement game. The Niners have been in their games because of defense, though, and I think they are up to the task. They should keep the Seahawks' offense contained. I just don't think the short-throw offense run by Jeff Garcia, though, is going to do it. The Seahwaks are much improved on defense, and you just need mroe than that. I see the Seahawks winning a close one, 24-21.

[TroyF]

Some random musings:

1) The Chiefs officially remind me of the 1984 Denver Broncos. That Bronco team pulled out miracle after miracle. They must have scored 8 defensive TD's that year. They stormed through the league and went 13-3, despite have the 25th ranked defense in the NFL. They were stunned 24-17 by Bubby Brister and the Pittsburgh Steelers in round one of the playoffs. I can easily see the same fate meeting the Chiefs. The guts and the heart are great, but they will be the 28th or worse ranked defense in the league come Tuesday morning. It's a house of cards that may not topple over in the regular season, but I can't believe that it won't topple.

2) Leftwich is going to be a good one. Real good. He's still making rookie mistakes, but he looks like a veteran in the pocket. The Dolphins pressured him a lot today, and he handled it pretty well.

3) Oakland's offense will improve by 100+ yards a game the first game Porter plays in. It won't be enough to salvage their season.

4) Greg Williams should just resign. He's one of the worst coaches I've ever seen. Go back to being a DC, where you were actually pretty good.

5) I read in The Sporting News this week that the Steelers would be able to expose the Bronco secondary and therefore win the game. I'm not going to knock the prediction. I predicted Denver in a tight game and it held up that way. I will say it's time to stop waiting for the Bronco defensive backs to be exposed. Through 6 games, they are giving up only 154 yards per game through the air. Teams are completing only around 52% of their passes for a paltry 4.49 yards per pass attempt. (Tampa Bay led the league last year at 174 yards per game and 5.46 yards per pass attempt) Even if we assume they'll slip a little bit, there is nothing to indicate they are living on borrowed time. The defensive line is deep and gets to the passer. The LB's are fast and are punishing in the short zones. This defense is REALLY good. A lot better than I expected. What would you rather have, the Chiefs penchant for big return TD's or a defense that consistently shuts down the opposition? I'll take my chances with the Broncos D and give my props to the Chiefs if they somehow continue their run of long returns.

6) Steve McNair. . . you've got to be kidding me. Please don't get hurt Steve. You are the MVP of the NFL. (his stats after today: 64% completion rate, 11 TD's, 2 INT's, 8.74 yards per pass attempt)

7) Congrats to Dallas. Another tough win. You're making believers of us all. (stop complaining Carolina, most of us already thought you'd be good)

8) The New York Giants should be ashamed of themselves. I hope you New England fans realize how special your current team is. They have no business with that record. I don't know if it'll last, but your team has heart.

TroyF