California recall election prediction

Buccaneer · 10-06-2003, 08:53 PM

Either 1 or 2 will happen:

1. Davis will "win" the recall but there will be clear evidence of voter fraud in certain precincts of LA and East Bay. The Republican Party will have enough evidence to challenge the result but will not pursue a lawsuit for they know they will not get a fair hearing in the courts. The Democrats will keep a low profile because any countersuits will raise the validity of the 2002 election results in the public's mind. Davis will claim vindication but polls will suggest otherwise.

2. Arnold will be elected and the Democrats will immediately file any one of the many lawsuits already prepared. They will get a temporary injunction preventing official declaration of the results but public outcry will eventually prevent any overruling of the result. In the transition period, there will be evidence of political and legislative sabotage and any actions taken by the illegitimate governor, as loudly proclaimed by the Democrats and the major media outlets, will be DOA in the state congress.

dawgfan · 10-06-2003, 09:06 PM

So voter fraud would only occur to benefit Davis? Only Democrats would perpetrate voter fraud?

JPhillips · 10-06-2003, 09:27 PM

How about:

3 A recall will be launched immediately upon Arnold's election. Repubs will cry foul and the conservative media will echo their claims that the recall is another in a long line of Democratic dirty tricks. Arnold will be ineffective as governor when he finally makes public whether he will increase taxes or massively slash spending. He will be seen as too liberal by the majority of Repubs in the statehouse and too conservative by the Dems.

Meanwhile he has roughly a dozen sexual harassment lawsuits filed by women whom he may have assaulted. Again the conservative media will call this a Dem dirty trick campaign while simultaneously decrying the lack of morals of Bill Clinton. At least one of these cases will go against Arnold, and his political career will end.

Orrin Hatch, who is trying to pass an amendment to the Constitution that will allow Arnold to run for the Presidency will have to console himself with his money from the nutritional supplement and recording industries.

kcchief19 · 10-06-2003, 09:27 PM

My choices for what will happen:

Step 1. Davis will "lose" the recall but there will be clear evidence of voter fraud in certain precincts of LA and East Bay. The Democratic Party will have enough evidence to challenge the result but will not pursue a lawsuit for they know they will not get a fair hearing in the courts. The Republicans will keep a low profile because any countersuits will raise the validity of the 2002 election results in the public's mind. Davis will never be heard from again.

Step 2. Arnold will be elected and the Democrats will stand by and let Arnold wallow in the mess co-created by the state legislature, which is still fully intact. Calfornia will continue to plod along with massive budget deficits and nothing will change. The right-wing media will proclaim that everything is fine and claim that any problems are caused by the liberal conspiracy trying to undermine Arnold. With no mandate due to the fact that he will be elected by only a mere plurality of the voters, Arnold will find it impossible to govern Throughout his term as governnor, he will be hounded to rumors and innuendo as the tabloid press has a field day coming up with more indiscrations from Arnold's past. Democrats will regain every level of state government in the next elections in a landslide.

MrBug708 · 10-06-2003, 09:29 PM

It's Arnold's to lose

But McClintock will get some great results

Mary Carey will get the most votes in the "unknown" group

I wonder who will finish in last? Talk about hitting the bottom of the barrel

Buccaneer · 10-06-2003, 10:08 PM

kc, your Step 2 is very likely, beyond the more short-term scenarios I stated.

dawgfan: Yes, 20th century history has shown that to have been overwhelmingly the case. Study the various elections in Louisiana, Texas and of course, Chicago. It's what happens when you have a huge block of "minority" and immigrant voters that do not go to the polls. Now whether recent technologies make it likely for either party to perpetrate fraud, I wouldn't be surprised.

Noop · 10-06-2003, 10:13 PM

What is a recall?

sabotai · 10-06-2003, 10:15 PM

I thought Bustamante was ahead of Arnord in the polls (I haven't looked a poll in awhile). What happened? And after the sideshow they called a debate occured, how can anyone be serious about putting onyone one of these yahoos in office?

Craptacular · 10-06-2003, 10:52 PM

4. The rest of us will continue to not give a shit about California.

clintl · 10-06-2003, 10:54 PM

Based on the events of recent days, I think almost any result is possible.

sterlingice · 10-06-2003, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Craptacular
4. The rest of us will continue to not give a shit about California.

My vote!

SI

haji1 · 10-06-2003, 11:02 PM

Can California annex itself from the Union? That would be nice.

sterlingice · 10-06-2003, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by haji1
Can California annex itself from the Union? That would be nice.

I think that's secede not annex.

SI

TredWel · 10-07-2003, 12:29 AM

My prediction?

The San Andreas fault will go crazy tomorrow afternoon, and the majority of California will drift away into the Pacific Ocean. This will prove that the entire state could be farther from my mind.

Abe Sargent · 10-07-2003, 02:11 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by TredWel
My prediction?

The San Andreas fault will go crazy tomorrow afternoon, and the majority of California will drift away into the Pacific Ocean. This will prove that the entire state could be farther from my mind.

I laughed, I cried, you were better than Cats.

-Anxiety

Noop · 10-07-2003, 08:15 AM

Again what is a recall? I hear it being tossed around on the news but I thought it was a election not a recall can someone please explain?

noop

WussGawd · 10-07-2003, 08:21 AM

Frankly, the entire state of California has a trout in its rectum, and has for several years.

QuikSand · 10-07-2003, 08:30 AM

Here's a prediction:

No matter what happens in the recall election, the deeply-entrenched ideologues will continue to scream bloody murder that this whole thing is emblematic of what is wrong with everything in this country. Liberals will suddenly develop a deep love for the "integrity of the electoral process" and consevatives will suddenly find abiding value in "the will of the people" - not because they truly beliieve those things, but because those arguments fit the result that they desire from this particular scenario. Meanwhile, the political ne'er-do-wells will remain largely unaffected, since from their political posture of convenience they are able to snipe about everything that everyone does, and will never have to face any accountability for any of their their absolutist statements.

QuikSand · 10-07-2003, 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Noop
Again what is a recall? I hear it being tossed around on the news but I thought it was a election not a recall can someone please explain?

noop, what happened in California is that there were petitions circulated to have the current Governor (Davis) recalled from office. Enough people signed these petitions, so this was placed on the ballot. So, the first question voters will answer is (essentially) "Should Governor Davis be removed from office?"

If more than half of voters say that he should, then the second question becomes relevant - this is basically an "election." The second question is "If Governor Davis is removed, who shoudl become Governor?" In this question, the candidate who gets the most votes (but not necessarily more than half of the total, just more than anyone else) will be declared the winner of the special election, and will become Governor.

Hope that helps.

Noop · 10-07-2003, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by QuikSand
noop, what happened in California is that there were petitions circulated to have the current Governor (Davis) recalled from office. Enough people signed these petitions, so this was placed on the ballot. So, the first question voters will answer is (essentially) "Should Governor Davis be removed from office?"

If more than half of voters say that he should, then the second question becomes relevant - this is basically an "election." The second question is "If Governor Davis is removed, who shoudl become Governor?" In this question, the candidate who gets the most votes (but not necessarily more than half of the total, just more than anyone else) will be declared the winner of the special election, and will become Governor.

Hope that helps.

Thank you. However that seems strange to me...if you can do it in Cali I wonder why people haven't tried the same with Bush?

noop

henry296 · 10-07-2003, 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Noop
Thank you. However that seems strange to me...if you can do it in Cali I wonder why people haven't tried the same with Bush?

noop

The California Constitution and the US Constitution are different. For the President only Congress can remove the President; it is called Impeachment and is what they tried to do with President Clinton.

Todd

JonInMiddleGA · 10-07-2003, 09:22 AM

My top guess -- Davis is recalled, somewhere around 52-53%. Bustamante is the top vote-getter as conservatives split their vote between the two top Republicans, with Arnold topping McClintock. Meanwhile, pro-Davis forces try to find a flaw with the recall results, furthering tension between Davis & Bustamante. The whole mess remains an issue up to & through the next regularly scheduled election.

My 2nd most-likely scenario -- Davis survives the recall, but by such a narrow margin that it takes days to finish counting the ballots. Both top Republicans file various complaints with the court and Bustamante at least briefly considers doing the same (as he gets the most votes) but that is fairly quickly squashed by the party. Court challenges fail, Davis continues to flounder & we see a re-match of the current challengers in the next regular election.

3rd scenario -- Davis is recalled, Bustamante & Arnold wait days to find out who wins. Votes are counted & re-counted and the entire process gets ripped by everybody at one time or another. Eventually, the winner claims the process "works" and the loser says the process is "broken". Meanwhile, Davis remains in office while things are sorted out & does at least one incredibly stupid thing as a lame duck.

GrantDawg · 10-07-2003, 10:31 AM

My prediction: A bunch of stuff is going to happen in California that I really don't care about, but it will provide hours of laughter.

Chief Rum · 10-07-2003, 10:32 AM

You're too pessimistic, John.

Polls have been showing recently that Davis is pretty much all but dumped without an absolutely gush of unexpected voting his way. Last I checked it was almost two to one dumping him.

In the second question, Arnold has been leading for the past wekk by a decent margin (last time I checked it was about 5-6 points). Obviously, still plenty close enough to wonder how things will turn out, but he is apparently the frontrunner leading up to the election.

Regardless, you know there will be court challenges, and ideologues will get up on their soapboxes, and the rest of you will swear off California.

CR

GrantDawg · 10-07-2003, 10:33 AM

Or even better: Presenting the Governor of California, the honorable Gary Coleman!

albionmoonlight · 10-07-2003, 10:38 AM

One thing I don't understand is the push to have Arnold made governor immediately after the election. The claim is that Davis should not have a couple of months of lame duck status in which to screw things up anymore. (Although who would be governor while the election was certified, I have no idea).

Hasn't every politician that has ever been replaced by an election had a lame duck status? Most of them make a few questionable midnight appointments and pardons and then go on their way. It's not a great system, but it seems to have worked for 200+ years. Why is there such a fear this time? Is Davis really that messed up that he would try to submarine the state out of spite?

Buccaneer · 10-07-2003, 10:45 AM

albion: Witness the slew of last minute legislation coming out of Sacramento. I call it sabotage, others may call it 'burning the town while the enemy is at the gates.'

GrantDawg · 10-07-2003, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by albionmoonlight
One thing I don't understand is the push to have Arnold made governor immediately after the election. The claim is that Davis should not have a couple of months of lame duck status in which to screw things up anymore. (Although who would be governor while the election was certified, I have no idea).

Hasn't every politician that has ever been replaced by an election had a lame duck status? Most of them make a few questionable midnight appointments and pardons and then go on their way. It's not a great system, but it seems to have worked for 200+ years. Why is there such a fear this time? Is Davis really that messed up that he would try to submarine the state out of spite?

BUT, this is a recall, not an election. It is not the same at all. That is like saying someone who is found guilty in an impeachment should have a couple of more months in office. That isn't how the system works at all.

Butter_of_69 · 10-07-2003, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by GrantDawg
BUT, this is a recall, not an election.

Say what now? Are they just going to the polls for fun, then?

JonInMiddleGA · 10-07-2003, 11:14 AM

albion - For better or worse (depends upon your p.o.v. I guess), that's what the Cali Constitution calls for, basically immediate removal upon certification of a recall result.

GrantDawg · 10-07-2003, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Butter_of_69
Say what now? Are they just going to the polls for fun, then?

.

To put someone in office after the recall.

GrantDawg · 10-07-2003, 11:22 AM

Or, to put it clearer, the election does not involve Gray Davis. He is being recalled. The election part of this is for the immediate replacement of the recalled governor.

Butter_of_69 · 10-07-2003, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by GrantDawg
The election part of this is for the immediate replacement of the recalled governor.

Is this an opinion? Or has there been a specific timetable worked out for when Gov. Davis would leave office? If it hasn't been worked out, and it sounds like it hasn't since this has never happened before (at least at such a high level in Cali.), then there are some more procedural things to be determined.

Leonidas · 10-07-2003, 11:33 AM

In a surprise last second maneuver Ben Affleck and Jennifer Lopez announce they are a Gov/Lt Gov team and win in a stunning turnaround.

In their acceptance speach, Bennifer proclaims they have not had enough publicity and felt it only fair to the public that they should have Bennifer in their lives more than ever and the best way to launch this new publicity was by being elected in California. They then outlined their plans to run for President in 2004 and called Howard Dean a "wuss".

GrantDawg · 10-07-2003, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Butter_of_69
Is this an opinion? Or has there been a specific timetable worked out for when Gov. Davis would leave office? If it hasn't been worked out, and it sounds like it hasn't since this has never happened before (at least at such a high level in Cali.), then there are some more procedural things to be determined.

Well, I'm no lawyer. I haven't studied the California constitution or anything of that sort. This was what the lawyers who have understand (except of course the lawyers paid by the Democratic Party). The division between the recall and election is fact. They are two different parts of the ballot.

The idea of the recall being immediate is what is standard. A recall, much like an impeachment, happens at the point of it being official. Then what happens depends on what is spelled out in law, whether it be the Vice President or Lt. Governor takes over, or in this case the person elected to the position takes over. Generally though, you do not leave someone in office after such an action.

Glengoyne · 10-07-2003, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by dawgfan
So voter fraud would only occur to benefit Davis? Only Democrats would perpetrate voter fraud?

Well yeah. Everyone knows that.

Ufer · 10-07-2003, 11:53 AM

As a Cali resident who does care, I think AS will win against the will of my person. I do hope AS can cleain up some of the endemic structural problems in Sacramento and current economic woes in Cali, but don't think he can -- and Karl Rove fears the same methinks. I'm guessing that former governor Pete Wilson's boys will pretty much run the political/policy side of things, while AS uses his unique access to speak directly to the people to try to pressure the entrenched interests on the left and right.

I think McClintock will try to springboard a fairly strong showing into a senate run where he'll be fought by Bill Simon for the honor of opposing Barbara Boxer.

I agree with Quiksand, this will not improve political discourse.

Sorry I provided no laughs. Oh, rumors have Dennis Miller (GOP) and/or Kelsey Grammer (Dem) considering senate runs...

One more note: I think the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals correctly made this election go forward even though some precincts still use punchcards. However, I was dismayed my precinct had zero written or oral instruction on how to use them or check for removed chads. When I asked, I was told everyone knows already. Also, our ballot was badly designed (surprise). 2 propositions are way way way at the back after pages of gubanitorial candidates. I suggested they post an informational sign but was glared at like the airport Starbucks workers -- why are airport Starbucks workers so much more surly?

Glengoyne · 10-07-2003, 12:02 PM

The secretary of state says the election won't be officially "in the books" for 6 or 8 weeks.

Easy Mac · 10-07-2003, 12:27 PM

Did Arnold actually run on a platform outside of saying he's Arnold?

I seriously have heard absolutely no opinion outside of he wants to reform the government for the people. How is this different from what everyone else has said?

Swaggs · 10-07-2003, 12:36 PM

Isn't Kelsey Grammar a conservative also? He was on Buchanon and Press last week and was generally speaking on the difficulties of being a conservative in Hollywood.

I cannot imagine him running. He has a past that makes Arnold look like an angel.

albionmoonlight · 10-07-2003, 02:44 PM

Thanks for the insight on Davis re: Recall v. Election. That actually makes a fair amount of sense. I don't know how they will work it in practice--it will take some time to certify the election.

GrantDawg · 10-07-2003, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Swaggs
Isn't Kelsey Grammar a conservative also? He was on Buchanon and Press last week and was generally speaking on the difficulties of being a conservative in Hollywood.

I cannot imagine him running. He has a past that makes Arnold look like an angel.

But he owns it. Some of this is a surprise on the Arnold side, but nothing is going to shock people (save dead bodies) on the "Kelsey the Coke-head" side. It might even be a positive factor in California.

Ufer · 10-07-2003, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Swaggs
Isn't Kelsey Grammar a conservative also? He was on Buchanon and Press last week and was generally speaking on the difficulties of being a conservative in Hollywood.

I cannot imagine him running. He has a past that makes Arnold look like an angel.

Sorry, I heard the rumor but made the party attribution on my own. I know Dennis Miller is GOP. What's a Hollywood past after all? Warren Beatty, Magic Johnson have considered running. Maybe Robert Blake or OJ will run next?

MrBug708 · 10-07-2003, 03:47 PM

Quote:

I think McClintock will try to springboard a fairly strong showing into a senate run where he'll be fought by Bill Simon for the honor of opposing Barbara Boxer.

Good, that hag needs to go. I don't mind Feinstein as much, but Boxer.....good ridance

10-06-2003, 09:27 PM	#3
JPhillips Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	How about: 3 A recall will be launched immediately upon Arnold's election. Repubs will cry foul and the conservative media will echo their claims that the recall is another in a long line of Democratic dirty tricks. Arnold will be ineffective as governor when he finally makes public whether he will increase taxes or massively slash spending. He will be seen as too liberal by the majority of Repubs in the statehouse and too conservative by the Dems. Meanwhile he has roughly a dozen sexual harassment lawsuits filed by women whom he may have assaulted. Again the conservative media will call this a Dem dirty trick campaign while simultaneously decrying the lack of morals of Bill Clinton. At least one of these cases will go against Arnold, and his political career will end. Orrin Hatch, who is trying to pass an amendment to the Constitution that will allow Arnold to run for the Presidency will have to console himself with his money from the nutritional supplement and recording industries. __________________ "The man of great wealth owes a particular obligation to the State because he derives special advantages from the mere existence of government." -Teddy Roosevelt

10-06-2003, 09:29 PM	#5
MrBug708 Head Coach Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Temple City!	It's Arnold's to lose But McClintock will get some great results Mary Carey will get the most votes in the "unknown" group I wonder who will finish in last? Talk about hitting the bottom of the barrel __________________ Richard Karstark - Ruler of Karhold - Bannerman of House Stark KKiTTLeS21: UCLA r0x d00d, #1

10-06-2003, 10:13 PM	#7
Noop Bonafide Seminole Fan Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Miami	What is a recall? __________________ You cannot enjoy outstanding success in life without power, and you can never enjoy power without sufficient personality to influence other people to co-operate with you in the spirit of harmony ~ Napoleon Hill

10-07-2003, 12:29 AM	#14
TredWel High School Varsity Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Old Forge, PA	My prediction? The San Andreas fault will go crazy tomorrow afternoon, and the majority of California will drift away into the Pacific Ocean. This will prove that the entire state could be farther from my mind. __________________ There are three things I have learned never to discuss with people...religion, politics, and the Great Pumpkin. - Linus Van Pelt

10-07-2003, 08:15 AM	#16
Noop Bonafide Seminole Fan Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Miami	Again what is a recall? I hear it being tossed around on the news but I thought it was a election not a recall can someone please explain? noop __________________ You cannot enjoy outstanding success in life without power, and you can never enjoy power without sufficient personality to influence other people to co-operate with you in the spirit of harmony ~ Napoleon Hill

10-06-2003, 09:27 PM	#4
kcchief19 Pro Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Kansas City, MO	My choices for what will happen: Step 1. Davis will "lose" the recall but there will be clear evidence of voter fraud in certain precincts of LA and East Bay. The Democratic Party will have enough evidence to challenge the result but will not pursue a lawsuit for they know they will not get a fair hearing in the courts. The Republicans will keep a low profile because any countersuits will raise the validity of the 2002 election results in the public's mind. Davis will never be heard from again. Step 2. Arnold will be elected and the Democrats will stand by and let Arnold wallow in the mess co-created by the state legislature, which is still fully intact. Calfornia will continue to plod along with massive budget deficits and nothing will change. The right-wing media will proclaim that everything is fine and claim that any problems are caused by the liberal conspiracy trying to undermine Arnold. With no mandate due to the fact that he will be elected by only a mere plurality of the voters, Arnold will find it impossible to govern Throughout his term as governnor, he will be hounded to rumors and innuendo as the tabloid press has a field day coming up with more indiscrations from Arnold's past. Democrats will regain every level of state government in the next elections in a landslide.

10-06-2003, 10:08 PM	#6
Buccaneer Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Colorado	kc, your Step 2 is very likely, beyond the more short-term scenarios I stated. dawgfan: Yes, 20th century history has shown that to have been overwhelmingly the case. Study the various elections in Louisiana, Texas and of course, Chicago. It's what happens when you have a huge block of "minority" and immigrant voters that do not go to the polls. Now whether recent technologies make it likely for either party to perpetrate fraud, I wouldn't be surprised.

10-06-2003, 10:15 PM	#8
sabotai Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Satellite of Love	I thought Bustamante was ahead of Arnord in the polls (I haven't looked a poll in awhile). What happened? And after the sideshow they called a debate occured, how can anyone be serious about putting onyone one of these yahoos in office?

10-06-2003, 10:52 PM	#9
Craptacular College Starter Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: The Mad City, WI	4. The rest of us will continue to not give a shit about California.

10-06-2003, 10:54 PM	#10
clintl College Starter Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Davis, CA	Based on the events of recent days, I think almost any result is possible.

10-06-2003, 11:02 PM	#12
haji1 Mascot Join Date: Jun 2003	Can California annex itself from the Union? That would be nice.

10-07-2003, 08:21 AM	#17
WussGawd College Benchwarmer Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Avondale, AZ, USA, Planet Earth, Milky Way Galaxy	Frankly, the entire state of California has a trout in its rectum, and has for several years. __________________ "I guess I'll fade into Bolivian." -Mike Tyson, after being knocked out by Lennox Lewis. Proud Dumba Elect of the "Biggest Dumba of FOFC Award" Author of the 2004 Golden Scribe Gold Trophy for Best Basketball Dynasty, It Rhymes With Puke.

10-07-2003, 08:30 AM	#18
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	Here's a prediction: No matter what happens in the recall election, the deeply-entrenched ideologues will continue to scream bloody murder that this whole thing is emblematic of what is wrong with everything in this country. Liberals will suddenly develop a deep love for the "integrity of the electoral process" and consevatives will suddenly find abiding value in "the will of the people" - not because they truly beliieve those things, but because those arguments fit the result that they desire from this particular scenario. Meanwhile, the political ne'er-do-wells will remain largely unaffected, since from their political posture of convenience they are able to snipe about everything that everyone does, and will never have to face any accountability for any of their their absolutist statements.

10-07-2003, 09:22 AM	#22
JonInMiddleGA Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA	My top guess -- Davis is recalled, somewhere around 52-53%. Bustamante is the top vote-getter as conservatives split their vote between the two top Republicans, with Arnold topping McClintock. Meanwhile, pro-Davis forces try to find a flaw with the recall results, furthering tension between Davis & Bustamante. The whole mess remains an issue up to & through the next regularly scheduled election. My 2nd most-likely scenario -- Davis survives the recall, but by such a narrow margin that it takes days to finish counting the ballots. Both top Republicans file various complaints with the court and Bustamante at least briefly considers doing the same (as he gets the most votes) but that is fairly quickly squashed by the party. Court challenges fail, Davis continues to flounder & we see a re-match of the current challengers in the next regular election. 3rd scenario -- Davis is recalled, Bustamante & Arnold wait days to find out who wins. Votes are counted & re-counted and the entire process gets ripped by everybody at one time or another. Eventually, the winner claims the process "works" and the loser says the process is "broken". Meanwhile, Davis remains in office while things are sorted out & does at least one incredibly stupid thing as a lame duck. __________________ "I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis

10-07-2003, 10:31 AM	#23
GrantDawg World Champion Mis-speller Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Covington, Ga.	My prediction: A bunch of stuff is going to happen in California that I really don't care about, but it will provide hours of laughter.

10-07-2003, 10:32 AM	#24
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	You're too pessimistic, John. Polls have been showing recently that Davis is pretty much all but dumped without an absolutely gush of unexpected voting his way. Last I checked it was almost two to one dumping him. In the second question, Arnold has been leading for the past wekk by a decent margin (last time I checked it was about 5-6 points). Obviously, still plenty close enough to wonder how things will turn out, but he is apparently the frontrunner leading up to the election. Regardless, you know there will be court challenges, and ideologues will get up on their soapboxes, and the rest of you will swear off California. CR __________________ . . On this subject I do not wish to think, or speak, or write, with moderation. No! no! Tell a man whose house is on fire, to give a moderate alarm; tell him to moderately rescue his wife from the hands of the ravisher; tell the mother to gradually extricate her babe from the fire into which it has fallen; but urge me not to use moderation in a cause like the present. I am in earnest--I will not equivocate--I will not excuse--I will not retreat a single inch-- AND I WILL BE HEARD!!!

10-07-2003, 10:33 AM	#25
GrantDawg World Champion Mis-speller Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Covington, Ga.	Or even better: Presenting the Governor of California, the honorable Gary Coleman!

10-07-2003, 10:38 AM	#26
albionmoonlight Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: North Carolina	One thing I don't understand is the push to have Arnold made governor immediately after the election. The claim is that Davis should not have a couple of months of lame duck status in which to screw things up anymore. (Although who would be governor while the election was certified, I have no idea). Hasn't every politician that has ever been replaced by an election had a lame duck status? Most of them make a few questionable midnight appointments and pardons and then go on their way. It's not a great system, but it seems to have worked for 200+ years. Why is there such a fear this time? Is Davis really that messed up that he would try to submarine the state out of spite?

10-07-2003, 10:45 AM	#27
Buccaneer Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Colorado	albion: Witness the slew of last minute legislation coming out of Sacramento. I call it sabotage, others may call it 'burning the town while the enemy is at the gates.'

10-07-2003, 11:14 AM	#30
JonInMiddleGA Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA	albion - For better or worse (depends upon your p.o.v. I guess), that's what the Cali Constitution calls for, basically immediate removal upon certification of a recall result. __________________ "I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis

10-07-2003, 11:22 AM	#32
GrantDawg World Champion Mis-speller Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Covington, Ga.	Or, to put it clearer, the election does not involve Gray Davis. He is being recalled. The election part of this is for the immediate replacement of the recalled governor.

10-07-2003, 11:33 AM	#34
Leonidas College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: East Anglia	In a surprise last second maneuver Ben Affleck and Jennifer Lopez announce they are a Gov/Lt Gov team and win in a stunning turnaround. In their acceptance speach, Bennifer proclaims they have not had enough publicity and felt it only fair to the public that they should have Bennifer in their lives more than ever and the best way to launch this new publicity was by being elected in California. They then outlined their plans to run for President in 2004 and called Howard Dean a "wuss". __________________ Molon labe

10-07-2003, 11:53 AM	#37
Ufer n00b Join Date: Aug 2001	As a Cali resident who does care, I think AS will win against the will of my person. I do hope AS can cleain up some of the endemic structural problems in Sacramento and current economic woes in Cali, but don't think he can -- and Karl Rove fears the same methinks. I'm guessing that former governor Pete Wilson's boys will pretty much run the political/policy side of things, while AS uses his unique access to speak directly to the people to try to pressure the entrenched interests on the left and right. I think McClintock will try to springboard a fairly strong showing into a senate run where he'll be fought by Bill Simon for the honor of opposing Barbara Boxer. I agree with Quiksand, this will not improve political discourse. Sorry I provided no laughs. Oh, rumors have Dennis Miller (GOP) and/or Kelsey Grammer (Dem) considering senate runs... One more note: I think the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals correctly made this election go forward even though some precincts still use punchcards. However, I was dismayed my precinct had zero written or oral instruction on how to use them or check for removed chads. When I asked, I was told everyone knows already. Also, our ballot was badly designed (surprise). 2 propositions are way way way at the back after pages of gubanitorial candidates. I suggested they post an informational sign but was glared at like the airport Starbucks workers -- why are airport Starbucks workers so much more surly? Last edited by Ufer : 10-07-2003 at 11:59 AM.

10-07-2003, 12:02 PM	#38
Glengoyne Pro Starter Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Fresno, CA	The secretary of state says the election won't be officially "in the books" for 6 or 8 weeks. __________________ Pain is temporary. Quitting lasts forever. -- Lance Armstrong

10-07-2003, 12:27 PM	#39
Easy Mac Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: G-vegas, SC	Did Arnold actually run on a platform outside of saying he's Arnold? I seriously have heard absolutely no opinion outside of he wants to reform the government for the people. How is this different from what everyone else has said? __________________ Movies Music Books

10-07-2003, 12:36 PM	#40
Swaggs Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Almost Heaven	Isn't Kelsey Grammar a conservative also? He was on Buchanon and Press last week and was generally speaking on the difficulties of being a conservative in Hollywood. I cannot imagine him running. He has a past that makes Arnold look like an angel. __________________ DOWN WITH HATTRICK!!! The RWBL Are you reading In The Bleachers?

10-07-2003, 02:44 PM	#41
albionmoonlight Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: North Carolina	Thanks for the insight on Davis re: Recall v. Election. That actually makes a fair amount of sense. I don't know how they will work it in practice--it will take some time to certify the election.

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