In-Depth Analysis of Running Back Skills [Archive]

Grid Iron

04-03-2006, 04:58 PM

Introduction

I am reposting this thread since the formatting was lost due to forum upgrade. It was originally posted on March 31, 2005. The original discussion can be found here (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=37554) .

When evaluating running backs, I’ve always struggled with which skill category is most important to the player’s success. To help me decide, I decided to run this experiment in to test the impact of the five primary running back attributes: 1) breakaway speed; 2) power inside; 3) hole recognition; 4) elusiveness; and 5) speed to the outside.

I did not include third-down running, as that is a purely situational stat, which I may examine more closely some other time.

Methodology

To conduct this experiment, I set all running back endurance scores to “9” and the overall skill scores to “0”. I then set each of the five skills for all running backs to “1”, except the attribute being tested, which was set to “9”.

To conduct the simulation, I set all options to be CPU-controlled and injuries to “0”.

I simulated 10 seasons for each of the five attributes, as well as 10 seasons for a control group (all “1”s for RB skill scores). After the simulation, I dropped the highest score and lowest score and arrived at my results.

Results

Below are the results, expressed in average yards per carry for the entire league, listing the high, low, median and mean.<pre> High Low Median Mean Control Group 3.79 3.73 3.75 3.75 Breakaway Speed 4.07 3.97 4.02 4.01 Power Inside 3.76 3.69 3.74 3.73 Hole Recognition 4.11 4.04 4.09 4.08 Elusiveness 4.07 3.89 3.99 3.98 Speed to Outside 3.71 3.64 3.66 3.67</pre>
Conclusions

While I am no statistician, here are some of the things I see:
<ul>
<li>The Control Group performed poorly as expected, as all RBs had skill scores of 1. Interestingly, it was the most consistent from season-to-season, varying just 0.06 from the high to the low. 
<li>Hole Recognition appears to have the most impact on a running back’s success. The 4.08 average over eight simulations is 0.07 greater than the average for Breakaway Speed, and 0.10 greater than Elusiveness. Moreover, the lowest seasonal yard-per-carry average with the Hole Recognition attribute was 4.04! 
<li>Breakaway Speed and Elusiveness appear to have an equally positive impact on a player’s running ability. 
<li>Power to the Inside doesn’t seem to add anything to the running game, being relatively consistent with the Control Group. 
<li>Speed to the Outside appears to be detrimental to the running game, averaging 0.08 less yards per carry than the Control Group. How can the results be less than the control group? I suspect that since the running backs had a high Speed to the Outside rating, the CPU implemented a higher number of outside runs. The results don’t look very good. It seems to me that outside running ability, absent some additional skill, hurts more than it helps. However, it may be that a high number of outside runs will, over the long haul, result in poor rushing numbers. 
</ul>

Grid Iron

04-03-2006, 05:01 PM

Attribute Combinations

I decided to run each pair of running back attributes together to determine the degree of impact they have on average yards per carry. In this experiment, two of the attributes were set to 9, while the other three were set to 1. Endurance was set to 9 for all RBs, and injuries were set to 0.

Since there were so many combinations, I ran five seasons, dropped the lowest and highest and averaged the three remaining values.

Here are the results in average yards per carry over three seasons:<pre> Brkaway PwrInsd HoleRec Elusive Outside ------------------------------------------------------ Brkaway --- 4.05 4.46 4.36 3.96 PwrInsd 4.05 --- 4.06 3.88 3.61 HoleRec 4.46 4.06 --- 4.39 4.06 Elusive 4.36 3.88 4.39 --- 3.86 Outside 3.96 3.61 4.06 3.86 ---</pre>I also ran Speed to the Outside with the Hole Recognition and Breakaway Speed Combination:<pre> With 1 With 9 Speed to Speed to Outside Outside Difference ------------------------------------------------------ Hole Recognition 4.46 4.35 -0.11 & Breakaway Speed Set to 9</pre>
This was a very interesting experiment that should help in putting a successful FOF2K4 roster together.

Here are some bold conclusions that should serve as interesting material for debate:
<ul>
<li>The single most important attribute for a running back is Hole Recognition. It’s hard to argue against this, given that with high Hole Recognition and Breakaway Speed, you get a lethal 4.46 yard per carry average! No other combination comes close. 
<li>It seems the top three attributes to look for are: Hole Recognition, then Breakaway Speed, and then Elusiveness. 
<li>Power Inside does not seem to provide any benefit over the long haul. Rather, it probably provides a situational benefit. However, this skill is probably better reserved for the fullback. The average yards/carry dropped when Hole Recognition was combined with Power Inside. This may be the result of the CPU game planning for more inside runs, thereby dragging down the overall average. 
<li>Unless you do all of your own gameplanning, get players with little or no Speed to the Outside ability. It seems that with players that have high Speed to Outside, the CPU game plans for a lot of runs to the outside, which drags down the average yards per carry. Look what happened when I added a 9 for Speed to Outside to the running backs with 9s for Hole Recognition and Breakaway Speed—the average yards per carry actually went down by more than .10! The bottom line, I believe, is that outside runs are severely overrated. I'll keep it between the tackles with my 4.46 average any day!
</ul>

Warhammer

04-03-2006, 08:44 PM

I think your conclusions are a bit off, if you notice how the CPU plans its runs, it runs behind the better blockers on the OL. It also schedules more balanced runs early in the game, and more inside runs late in the game, and if you have a lead.

From my observations with my teams, Power Inside has a lower YPC, but more runs tend to be for positive yards. Speed to the outside is good if you have a back that is proficient at it. It does seem to be a little more varied than Power Inside.

But, I agree that Hole Recognition is by far the best skill for a RB. But, you need to have either PI or SO, backs that I have seen in leagues with good HR and elusiveness tend not to do as well as backs with good HR and PI or SO.

Vinatieri for Prez

04-03-2006, 09:30 PM

It's great you did an experiment, but I am not seeing this. My running back with speed to outside, running behind good tackles racks up the yardage. I guess maybe you're saying that if I ran the same plays and all his ratings staying the same that his ypc would improve with a lower speed outside. This seems counterintuitive. Why would Jim include a positive stat that as it gets higher, it results in worse performance???

Normally, if I have good tackles, I look for speed to outside. If I have good guards, I look for power inside. And hole recognition/breakaway speed always. Not sure you're experiment takes into account the O-line guys, which I think is important.

Although I guess you did say that if you're not gameplanning that is what you are suggesting.

Grid Iron

04-03-2006, 11:04 PM

It's great you did an experiment, but I am not seeing this. My running back with speed to outside, running behind good tackles racks up the yardage. I guess maybe you're saying that if I ran the same plays and all his ratings staying the same that his ypc would improve with a lower speed outside. This seems counterintuitive. Why would Jim include a positive stat that as it gets higher, it results in worse performance???

Normally, if I have good tackles, I look for speed to outside. If I have good guards, I look for power inside. And hole recognition/breakaway speed always. Not sure you're experiment takes into account the O-line guys, which I think is important.

Although I guess you did say that if you're not gameplanning that is what you are suggesting.

This test is done in the abstract, and looks at the entire league averages using CPU gameplanning. So, gameplanning on your own may yield different results.

The differentiation in o-linemen is balanced by the fact that these results are the average from every running back (and hence every Oline) in the league.

Further, people will always have anecdotal stories about how "my RB rocked with such and such skills, so your theory doesn't work." That doesn't change the facts of what my tests showed.

Everyone is free to draw whatever conclusions they want. :)

Much of this was discussed in the original post. Definitely give it a read. Lots of different opinions to consider.

Warhammer

04-04-2006, 01:12 AM

I stand by my post, based upon how the AI determines where your backs run, there is no averaging due to the OL. What I think you can base on the numbers is that Hole Recognition is the single most important attribute for an RB. PI and SO seem to be equally important.

kurtism

04-04-2006, 06:08 AM

Interesting stuff. What did you do to control for offensive lines and defense?

Grid Iron

04-04-2006, 09:39 AM

Interesting stuff. What did you do to control for offensive lines and defense?

Nothing, for two reasons. First, and most importantly, it would have been a huge pain to change every stat for every O-lineman in the stat file.

Second, I don't think it would have that much of an impact on the results, since they are the averages of every single running back on every single team for every single game for 10 seasons. A total of 5,120 games.

sovereignstar

04-04-2006, 04:33 PM

What would you trade for an 8th-year RB whose hole recognition isn't in the league's Top 35 and his career YPC is 3.81? :)

MIJB#19

04-04-2006, 05:46 PM

Great study. And part of my guide to get a new RB for my multiplayer teams.

Grid Iron

04-04-2006, 06:24 PM

What would you trade for an 8th-year RB whose hole recognition isn't in the league's Top 35 and his career YPC is 3.81? :)

A 1.9, a promising young WR and a second rounder in 2012 of course! ;)

Vinatieri for Prez

04-04-2006, 11:17 PM

This test is done in the abstract, and looks at the entire league averages using CPU gameplanning. So, gameplanning on your own may yield different results.

The differentiation in o-linemen is balanced by the fact that these results are the average from every running back (and hence every Oline) in the league.

Further, people will always have anecdotal stories about how "my RB rocked with such and such skills, so your theory doesn't work." That doesn't change the facts of what my tests showed.

Everyone is free to draw whatever conclusions they want. :)

Much of this was discussed in the original post. Definitely give it a read. Lots of different opinions to consider.

Understand. I still appreciate the effort. It does corroborate what I thought in terms of hole recognition.

JOKER

04-06-2006, 03:45 PM

Barry Sanders...was dropped alot behind the line, due to his shake and bake.
This can cause the avg to go down......but he had numerous giant runs...
If he was ever shut down and didn't get a huge run.....his great avg. would certainly suffer.....

Daimyo

04-06-2006, 03:57 PM

Barry Sanders...was dropped alot behind the line, due to his shake and bake.
This can cause the avg to go down......but he had numerous giant runs...
If he was ever shut down and didn't get a huge run.....his great avg. would certainly suffer.....
And that has what to do with runningbacks in FOF?

JOKER

04-06-2006, 06:24 PM

I think it means:
If you run outside theres a greater chance to lose yardage.