NFL Coach Firing - Formula

[21C]

I couldn't find the original thread I posted this in so I'm guessing it got deleted.

Much like my MVP formula, I devised a calculation to work out the likelihood of an NFL head coach getting fired. It doesn't account for outside influences ( Mike Tice or Mike Martz ) or retirements ( Dick Vermeil ) but it's a straight out formula. I started working on it for use with online leagues and it went from there.

Anything below a 40 is firing material unless a coach is in his first or second season. Coaches over 40 aren't safe since one bad season ( Green Bay ) puts a coach at risk.

I've bolded coach firings as reported at end of Monday.

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="829" width="494"> <col style="width: 115pt;" width="153"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt; width: 115pt;" height="17" width="153">NFL</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">2005</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Denver Broncos " height="17">Denver Broncos </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="131.25">131</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Indianapolis Colts " height="17">Indianapolis Colts </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="120.849609375">121</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Pittsburgh Steelers " height="17">Pittsburgh Steelers </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="118.75">119</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="New England Patriots " height="17">New England Patriots </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="109.0219259262085">109</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Philadelphia Eagles " height="17">Philadelphia Eagles </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="87.5">88</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="St. Louis Rams " height="17">St. Louis Rams </td> <td class="xl24" x:num="79.30755615234375">79</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Green Bay Packers " height="17">Green Bay Packers </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="">75</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Seattle Seahawks " height="17">Seattle Seahawks </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="72.64203205704689">73</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Baltimore Ravens " height="17">Baltimore Ravens </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="68.943500518798828">69</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Carolina Panthers " height="17">Carolina Panthers </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="61.969757080078125">62</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Tennessee Oilers " height="17">Tennessee Oilers </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="60.9375">61</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Kansas City Chiefs " height="17">Kansas City Chiefs </td> <td class="xl24" x:num="60.5621337890625">61</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Atlanta Falcons " height="17">Atlanta Falcons </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="59.375">59</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Cincinnati Bengals " height="17">Cincinnati Bengals </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="59.375">59</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Tampa Bay Buccaneers " height="17">Tampa Bay Buccaneers </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="56.5338134765625">57</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Jacksonville Jaguars " height="17">Jacksonville Jaguars </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="53.955078125">54</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Miami Dolphins " height="17">Miami Dolphins </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="53.125">53</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Dallas Cowboys " height="17">Dallas Cowboys </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="52.294921875">52</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="New York Giants " height="17">New York Giants </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="51.953125">52</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="San Diego Chargers " height="17">San Diego Chargers </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="49.8046875">50</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Minnesota Vikings " height="17">Minnesota Vikings </td> <td class="xl24" x:num="49.3896484375">49</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Washington Redskins " height="17">Washington Redskins </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="49.21875">49</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Chicago Bears " height="17">Chicago Bears </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="48.2421875">48</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="New York Jets " height="17">New York Jets </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="44.12384033203125">44</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Cleveland Browns " height="17">Cleveland Browns </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="43.75">44</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Buffalo Bills " height="17">Buffalo Bills </td> <td class="xl27" x:num="43.1640625">43</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="New Orleans Saints " height="17">New Orleans Saints </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="38.52081298828125">39</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="San Francisco 49ers " height="17">San Francisco 49ers </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="37.5">38</td> <td class="xl25">(1st season)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Arizona Cardinals " height="17">Arizona Cardinals </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="35.546875">36</td> <td class="xl25">(2nd season)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Oakland Raiders " height="17">Oakland Raiders </td> <td class="xl22" x:num="30.46875">30</td> <td class="xl25">(2nd season)</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Detroit Lions " height="17">Detroit Lions </td> <td class="xl24" x:num="28.8818359375">29</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Houston Texans " height="17">Houston Texans </td> <td class="xl24" x:num="17.852783203125">18</td> <td>
</td> </tr></tbody> </table>

[QuikSand]

Anything below a 40 is firing material unless a coach is in his first or second season. Coaches over 40 aren't safe since one bad season ( Green Bay ) puts a coach at risk.

Any way you can find to put this into the formula?

Seems to me if you know these are relevant factors... rather than caveat the formula, why not try to work them in?

[albionmoonlight]

I realize that lists like this are more general guides than exact science.

But I still must comment on the fact that Baltimore's coach seems to be in a much better position than Carolina's.

[cougarfreak]

And Cincinnati's isn't in a great position either. I would guess that longevity plays a pretty large role in the formula.

[21C]

Any way you can find to put this into the formula?

Seems to me if you know these are relevant factors... rather than caveat the formula, why not try to work them in? I couldn't get it to work right without getting too much of a swing one way or the other. I think that a coach shouldn't be penalized for having one bad year after a strong couple of years. The only problem is that owners and fans can get too wrapped up in one bad year.

For example, Bill Cowher has had records of 7-9 in 1998 and 6-10 in 1999 and 2003 but taken the Steelers to 10+ win seasons in lots of other years.

The same thing with Dick Jauron in Chicago. One 13-3 season shouldn't make up for sub-.500 years every other season.

[21C]

And Cincinnati's isn't in a great position either. I would guess that longevity plays a pretty large role in the formula. Not quite.

The formula is that every coach starts with 50.

Each subsequent season's score is last season's score multiplied by ( 8 + Wins ) / 16.

An 8-8 season means that your score stays the same.
A winning season increases your score.
A losing season drops it.
No score can be bigger than 100 - that means that the DEN, IND, PIT and NE scores above will count as 100 for next season's calculations.

Like albionmoonlight said, it's merely a guide.

[QuikSand]

I wonder if such a system, just based on wins and losses, prehaps with a comparison to prior years, could be put to an actual test -- look for what kind of patterns have historically led to actual firings, rather than just showing some measurement of how a given coach has done, overall.

I would have to guess that a team with a coash in his 3rd-6th year, whose win total drops by three games or more might be a "sweet spot" -- independent of what kind of success the team had overall. (Drop from 12-4 to 8-8 would be a red flag, just as a drop from 8-8 to 4-12 would be)

Just a thought, along these lines. Interesting concept.