OL Performance - WYSIWYG?

[QuikSand]

I think that I'm asking a question here that has no definitive answer. Well, at least, not one that we can really back up. My questions is this:

Is there anything more to an offensive lineman's effect on the game than the stats that are actually reported in the game? (i.e. key run blocks, sacks allowed)


In my mind, there are two possible ways that the game works (there may be more):

Option #1: Only The Visible Stats Matter

Run play is called
Game selects offensive player for key run block opportunity
Game selects appropriate defensive player for run block check
Game determines whether KRB is successfully completed
KRB success or failure has impact on remainder of the play
Balance of play involves various ratings of ball carrier and other defenders

Pass play is called
Defenders involved in pass rush are identified, matched up with blockers
Game selects appropriate combinations for pass block checks
Game determines whether pass blocks are successful
Pass block failure determines/increases chance for that defender to sack, hurry, or block pass
Pass pressure, in whatever form, has some affect on pass play outcome

Option #2: There is More Happening Underneath That What We See

Run play is called
Game selects offensive player for key run block opportunity
Game selects appropriate defensive player for run block check
Game determines whether KRB is successfully completed
Some overall measure of team-wide run-blocking effectiveness is determined
Overall run-blocking result affects either likelihood of KRB, or directly affects play outcome
KRB success or failure has impact on remainder of the play
Balance of play involves various ratings of ball carrier and other defenders

Pass play is called
Some overall measure of team-wide run-blocking effectiveness is determined
Defenders involved in pass rush are identified, matched up with blockers
Game selects appropriate combinations for pass block checks
Overall pass-blocking result affects either likelihood of individual successes, or directly affects play outcome
Game determines whether pass blocks are successful
Pass block failure determines/increases chance for that defender to sack, hurry, or block pass
Pass pressure, in whatever form, has some affect on pass play outcome

- - -

My point is -- it's certanly possible that the game basically boils down to selected one-on-one matchups for every play, and that for the given play, that's all that matters. From the stats we see - that's basically the implication. Your left tackle's contribution to the running game was that he has 40 chances to make a key run block... and he converted 16 of them for a 40% completion rate. The implication there is that other than those 40 plays, he had no effect at all on the running game.

It's also possible, at least, that there is some general or global check taking place -- and that a given lineman has some effect beyond his own stats. Your run-blocking tcakle might also have had some beneficial effect on the running game even on plays where he was not the one granted a KRB opportunity -- conceptually he made a block of secondary importance, or something of that nature. Surely, in real football, there are running plays degined to go in behind the right guard, where a failure by the left tackle could result in a tackle behind the line of scrimmage. That is to say - of course everyone counts on every play in real football. The question here is -- does this happen in FOF?


I don't think that anyone will be able to step up and say that he knows the answer to this question. It's possible that I have missed some reference in the game's documentation that gets to this point, but short of that, I think the testing needed to prove this matter convincingly one way or the other would be overwhelmingly difficult.

Just a matter of some idle speculation.

[QuikSand]

I recently goto to thinking about this as a result of wondering about the value of linemen in FOF. Presumably, you could do some calculating, to determine what gain is yielded from a key run block, and what loss is suffered from allowing a sack. Since those are the only stats we have assigned to a specific lineman, that's as far as I would be able to calculate.

It got me thinking about secondary or global effects -- whether having a highly-rated pass blocking lineman might have some secondary effects -- either making some of his teammates themselves less likely to yield sacks, or else somehow reducing the pass rush effectiveness in a global way. If that's true, then the value of an OL becomes a lot more complicated to try to estimate.

[MrBigglesworth]

What if you set up two different set of conditions, one of which had one really good lineman with 4 other really bad linemen, the other with that same good lineman with 4 other good linemen. Then measure:

(a) % of the run block opportunities that the control lineman gets
(b) % converted by the control lineman
(c) average gain on a converted krb by the control lineman

If the secondary linemen in the play are any help at all, then we should see an increase in (c), an increase in (b), or even a decrease in (a).

[QuikSand]

That's essentially how you'd have to set things up -- but it would be really tough to do so without seeing the effects of cohesion involved (even if you turned off chemistry top eliminate that factor). I suppose you could purhase an entirely new OL for each side of the experiment.

Trouble is, I find OL stats to be so variable -- it might take a hell of a lot of trials to come up with too much that seems convincing. But yes - I think that's probably the way to measure it, more or less.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

There is one obvious global effect with cohesion -- if the guy lowers or raises cohesion by his presence in the line up, this should have a global effect I would think. Now, whether it is applied globally in the manner you have suggested as a separate component or it simply modifies the individual ratings of each blocker when the individual match-ups or checks take place is unknown. Also, in running the test, you would want to control the cohesion ratings so they don't effect the outcome.

Edit: come think of it, is the cohesion variable controlled in all the other tests that get run?

[Buzzbee]

Food for thought:

Run plays are run between linemen - Inside Right Tackle, Inside Left Guard.

Therefore it would lead me to believe that the engine would have to check the linemen on both sides of the hole. I would also imagine that the type of defense, 4-3 vs. 3-4 would affect the blocking assignments.

So, it seems possible that it might work somewhere in between your two scenarios above.

[QuikSand]

Food for thought:

Run plays are run between linemen - Inside Right Tackle, Inside Left Guard.

Therefore it would lead me to believe that the engine would have to check the linemen on both sides of the hole. I would also imagine that the type of defense, 4-3 vs. 3-4 would affect the blocking assignments.

So, it seems possible that it might work somewhere in between your two scenarios above.

For what it's worth, I think you will find from FOF game stats that there is a perfect 1:1 correlation between run plays and key run block opportunitites. I don't claim to know how it works, but there appears to be some sort of computerized coin-flipping going on in there. Run the ball 25 times between the left tackle and left guard, and you'll probably see that the LT gets 12, LG gets 11, and FB gets 3 or something of that nature.

[MrBigglesworth]

For what it's worth, I think you will find from FOF game stats that there is a perfect 1:1 correlation between run plays and key run block opportunitites. I don't claim to know how it works, but there appears to be some sort of computerized coin-flipping going on in there. Run the ball 25 times between the left tackle and left guard, and you'll probably see that the LT gets 12, LG gets 11, and FB gets 3 or something of that nature.
I frequently see plays run around left end with the KRB being from the right tackle. I don't know if that is supposed to simulate pulling (kind of hard to pull a tackle) or if it is all just random.

[QuikSand]

I confess that I haven't watched it too closely for individual plays (and cannot explain what you witness above) -- but the distribution does seem to come out pretty appropriately in the end. If you send lots of rushes to the left side, it's those linemen who get the bulk of the KRB opportunities.

[gstelmack]

I frequently see plays run around left end with the KRB being from the right tackle. I don't know if that is supposed to simulate pulling (kind of hard to pull a tackle) or if it is all just random.
In the play-by-play I could swear I've seen it indicate someone pulling. But I may have imagined it. I will confirm that I've seen O-linemen from the other side of the line generate KRBs.

[KWhit]

I will confirm that I've seen O-linemen from the other side of the line generate KRBs.
That's definitely true, but I've only noticed it with guards, not tackles.

[stevew]

It would be great if the game didnt just track the amount of sacks a guy gave up, but also if it were to keep track of the times a guy got beat for hurries, or blocked passes. Also, is a KRB the same thing as a pancake? I hope the next version has a more indepth lineman grading scale, if one exists(factoring in his total performance including run and pass protection).

Also the option to situationally send in lineman to play would be a plus, such as the pure "run mauler" type who is 85 in run blocking and 10 in pass blocking, or the pure pass blocker who is the exact opposite.

[Celeval]

I frequently see plays run around left end with the KRB being from the right tackle. I don't know if that is supposed to simulate pulling (kind of hard to pull a tackle) or if it is all just random.
Are you sure that is, say, the playing playing RT then? Or possible the RT being subbed in either at LT or a RG and pulling?

[QuikSand]

There is another issue that, on reflection, seems to connect to this.

I am pretty sure that tight ends, in FOF 2004, do not ever get credited with any sacks allowed. I am fairly certain this remains true, despite the several patches to the game.

If it turns out that the WYSIWYG theory of offensive linemen is true (and that nothing beyond the visible stats actually has any effect in the game) then I think we would naturally also conclude that tight ends don't matter at all in pass protection. It would be tough to reach one conclusion and not the other, I think.

[Solecismic]

It's nice knowing all the answers. Sorry I can't share them.

[KWhit]

You suck.

[QuikSand]

I don't think that anyone will be able to step up and say that he knows the answer to this question.

I almost... almost... decided to caveat this point with the one exception. But it seemed like such a longshot.

*sigh*

Oh... and you suck!

[Mike D]

hehehe...

[Buzzbee]

There is another issue that, on reflection, seems to connect to this.

I am pretty sure that tight ends, in FOF 2004, do not ever get credited with any sacks allowed. I am fairly certain this remains true, despite the several patches to the game.

If it turns out that the WYSIWYG theory of offensive linemen is true (and that nothing beyond the visible stats actually has any effect in the game) then I think we would naturally also conclude that tight ends don't matter at all in pass protection. It would be tough to reach one conclusion and not the other, I think.
Perhaps this is a by-product of TEs being included in the receiver group? On pass plays they are running routes, and therefore aren't 'eligible' to give up sacks?

I can't remember if I read this in the help under KRB or if I saw it posted here, but I seem to recall something being written about players with better attributes getting more KRO. In other words, if you've got one stud lineman surrounded by guys in skirts, the stud is going to get a much higher percentage of KROs. Similarly, if you've got a line consisting of evenly rated players, the KROs will be more evenly distributed.

Could be pretty easy to test. Set your runs to be evenly distributed between the various run directions. Run one test with a stud and duds OL and see if the stud gets a high % of KRO. Then run another test with a stud and buds OL and see if they KRO are more evenly distributed among the line.

Perhaps the game determines who gets the KRO based on skills, and then rolls to see if the KRO turns into a KRB?

[QuikSand]

Perhaps this is a by-product of TEs being included in the receiver group? On pass plays they are running routes, and therefore aren't 'eligible' to give up sacks?

Whether it is deliberate or an omission, it seems to be the case. Your TE will never be charged with a sack allowed.

This, in my book, certainly suggests that the "pass blocking" rating for a tight end may never be used in the game, making it completely meaningless. It's certainly possible.

[QuikSand]

I can't remember if I read this in the help under KRB or if I saw it posted here, but I seem to recall something being written about players with better attributes getting more KRO. In other words, if you've got one stud lineman surrounded by guys in skirts, the stud is going to get a much higher percentage of KROs. Similarly, if you've got a line consisting of evenly rated players, the KROs will be more evenly distributed.

Could be pretty easy to test. Set your runs to be evenly distributed between the various run directions. Run one test with a stud and duds OL and see if the stud gets a high % of KRO. Then run another test with a stud and buds OL and see if they KRO are more evenly distributed among the line.

Perhaps the game determines who gets the KRO based on skills, and then rolls to see if the KRO turns into a KRB?

Well, the direction of run plays that you choose in your game plan certainly guides this, at leat in large part.

But if you have a perfectly balance game plan, is there a secondary effect you might notice based on player skill? I don't know - the test you suggest ought to find it, I suspect.

But in general, if your LG is getting most of the run blocking chances, it's not necessarily because he's good - it's more likely because he's the guy where the game plan is sending all the runs behind.

[Celeval]

Whether it is deliberate or an omission, it seems to be the case. Your TE will never be charged with a sack allowed.

This, in my book, certainly suggests that the "pass blocking" rating for a tight end may never be used in the game, making it completely meaningless. It's certainly possible.
Unless you play them at FB. :-D

[Buzzbee]

Well, the direction of run plays that you choose in your game plan certainly guides this, at leat in large part.

But if you have a perfectly balance game plan, is there a secondary effect you might notice based on player skill? I don't know - the test you suggest ought to find it, I suspect.

But in general, if your LG is getting most of the run blocking chances, it's not necessarily because he's good - it's more likely because he's the guy where the game plan is sending all the runs behind.
If that is the case, then it seems like you 'could' test the options in your initial post. If the Key Block Opportunities are determined by the gameplan, then the Key Run Blocks would have to follow suit, right? Therefore if you run outside and inside the left tackle for a majority of plays, the left tackle should get a majority of the KBOs. If the KRB are higher with a better supporting cast at RG and RT, then it seems to support the 'total' blocking of the line. If the KRBs are somewhat constant regardless of the quality of the right side of the line, then it would seem to support the 'player only' option.

$0.02

[Buzzbee]

Unless you play them at FB. :-D
Beat me to it. ;)

[Kozure]

This might help some of you when determining how play calling affects who gets key run blocks

http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~fof/forums/showthread.php?t=33049

I did these tests to see how offenses and defenses are lined up against each other. But I also saw that directional running influences KRBs. For instance, plays to the far left side of the offense line will great more KRBs to LTs and LGs, depending on how far over to the left you go.

And when you run to the left, you are running against the Weak side linebackers as well as the Right defensive ends, and right corner. WHen you know this information, you can more accurately attack defensive weaknesses.

[QuikSand]

After a somewhat related conversation... I thought this post was worth a bump.

[QuikSand]

Okay... a little free-range speculation here.

I'll try to thumbnail an argument.

- Let's say that a given OL at a random position is on the field for 400 pass plays, and gets 50 KRB opportunities. That's probably in the right ballpark.

- Let's say that a quality OL is able to only allow 0.5% sacks allowed, compared to 1.5% for a lesser OL

- Let's say that a quality OL is able to complete 40% of KRBs, rather than only 20% for a lesser OL

- And we'll add in the notion (so far, uncontested by any evidence) that there's nothing more to it -- all the OL contribute to the game are these results, there are no aggregated adjustments going on beneath the surface


So, what does a "quality" lineman get you? Over 16 games, you get 6 fewer sacks, and 10 more key run blocks.

I'm sure you could come up with some way to translate this into yards, or somesuch -- measuring the average result of a run behind a KRB rather than one without. I don't know what the difference would be, nor do I know how to measure the value of a sack. But we're talking about a total of one play a game -- and that's making the fairly charitable assumption that the good OL actually performs to his good level, while the average OL does not (a pretty big given, in my book).

If you're paying an offensive lineman 5% of your salary cap... what are you really buying there? Is there anyway that such a player actually givs you the same kind of dividends that an investment in a position like QB or RB would?

(Yes, I'm aware that you can run more behind a stud run blocker, and can slot a stud pass blocker at LT to guard your most vulnerable area -- it's a thumbnail, not intended to be rock solid. It's not likely to be off by a *huge* margin in any event)

...perhaps that will liven up the discussion.

[Narcizo]

I think when considering this it's important to bear in mind that a key run block is only and always achieved if the ball carrier runs for over 5 yards or reaches a first down. To me that suggests that the key run block is attributed to the blocker in retrospect no matter how good his block really was. So I would imagine that the situation (grossly simplified) is something like;

Player runs in direction decided by game plan
Appropriate Blocker is determined based on direction of run
Appropriate defensive player is decided based on blocker and/or direction of run
Blocker matched with Defensive Player to create a block modifier
Result of block modifier & other defensive considerations modifies runners own stats to decide how far he actually runs
If he runs for 5+ yards or gains a first down the blocker receives "key block" and a "key block opportunity"
If the game determines he had the possibility to run for 5+ yards or got a first down with a better blocking modifier then the blocker receives a "key block opportunity".

That's really the only scenario I can think of that accounts for the key run block always being attributed to a first down or 5+ yard run. I just don't like the sound of the last bit about key block opportunity as it sounds an unlikely method to calculate things. So there's probaly a better hypothesis.

[Icy]

One of the possible ways for the engine to work could be using the following calculations for the Oliners:

Let's say the play called is to run between the LT and LG, i would do the following calculations: (the % are just an example that would need lots of tests to determine):

Offensive line and FB dice roll moddifiers:
............LT-40%
............LG-40%
FB-10%...C-6%
............RT-3%
............LT-1%

That way the LT and LG make the biggest impact in the play as the run is between them, but also the other Olinemen have something to say in the play. You could use that moddifiers also when determining the KRB assignation (that would explain a minimal but possible chance for the other side Oliner to get the KRB credited to him).

[QuikSand]

I think when considering this it's important to bear in mind that a key run block is only and always achieved if the ball carrier runs for over 5 yards or reaches a first down. To me that suggests that the key run block is attributed to the blocker in retrospect no matter how good his block really was.

Perhaps you have the cause and effect reversed? Maybe once the gane determines there is a KRB, then the ball carrier is essentially advanced 5 yards until there's any second chance for a tackle to be made?

[Mike D]

Just to throw out there as a "What if?"--Perhaps what we aren't seeing is an offensive line composite score that is modified based on the run direction and the key personnel involved.

If you have 5 OL (LT, LG, C, RG, RT) with run blocking skills rated 50, 25,25,25,100 respectively, your composite score might be 225. But if you run around left end, you add another 50 points to the score to adjust it for your LT run blocking skill - 275 becomes your modifier for running around LE.

But say your RT (100) is out and his replacement (rating of 10) comes in. The lineman's composite is now severely reduced to 135 and a run around LE gets the 50 point modifier (based on the LT) - 185 is your modifier around LE.

KRB's and SA are important modifier, but perhaps there is more that we don't really see on the individual stat screen. Perhaps what you are *buying* is a lot more with your player than just a few less sacks or a few more KRB's. Perhaps you are vastly improving your overall running game and your overall passing game. For instance this similar scenario happened to my MP IHOF team. Where I lost my stud RT. In games this year where he was there, I had the top running game in the league. But since he's been out, I can't get 3.5 YPC. Coincidence? Maybe. But I suspect, my running game would be happier, no matter where I ran the ball, if my stud RT was in the game.

No stats or testing to back this up. So I apologize for that. Just a theory.

[MrBigglesworth]

I think it is closer to what Dutch is saying. Sounds easy to test: one test with an OL surrounded by other great linemen, another with the same OL surrounded by duds, and check the KRB's of the one lineman. I'd be interested to know not only if the KRB% is different, but also if the great OL gets more opportunities with a poor line.

[Celeval]

If the game determines he had the possibility to run for 5+ yards or got a first down with a better blocking modifier then the blocker receives a "key block opportunity".I disagree with this - I think there's a strong possibility that every (almost every?) planned run has a KRO.

Incidental proof: my Georgia Gridlock in the IHOF have 332 runs for 1445 yards (4.35 avg) so far this season. I have 318 KROs, of which I've converted 94. I'm not sure about the missing 14, but my QB has 8 rushes, at least some of which were probably scrambles.

As for effect of KRBs... just anecdotal from my last game (loss):

Overall: 29-146 (5.03)
Successful KRB: 11-97 (8.82)
No KRB: 18-59 (3.27)

[MrBigglesworth]

Kneeldowns are also counted as rushes.

[Celeval]

I disagree with this - I think there's a strong possibility that every (almost every?) planned run has a KRO.

Incidental proof: my Georgia Gridlock in the IHOF have 332 runs for 1445 yards (4.35 avg) so far this season. I have 318 KROs, of which I've converted 94. I'm not sure about the missing 14, but my QB has 8 rushes, at least some of which were probably scrambles.

As for effect of KRBs... just anecdotal from my last game (loss):

Overall: 29-146 (5.03)
Successful KRB: 11-97 (8.82)
No KRB: 18-59 (3.27)Addenda... while I definately have a decent line (C: 83/83, Gs 64/70, 62/67, Ts 44/71 56/69), it's by no means the best in the league.

[Celeval]

Kneeldowns are also counted as rushes.That may be the difference, I've got at least four of those (missing some flg files to check).

[Icy]

Just to throw out their as a "What if?"--Perhaps what we aren't seeing is an offensive line composite score that is modified based on the run direction and the key personnel involved.

If you have 5 OL (LT, LG, C, RG, RT) with run blocking skills rated 50, 25,25,25,100 respectively, your composite score might be 225. But if you run around left end, you add another 50 points to the score to adjust it for your LT run blocking skill - 275 becomes your modifier for running around LE.

But say your RT (100) is out and his replacement (rating of 10) comes in. The lineman's composite is now severely reduced to 135 and a run around LE gets the 50 point modifier (based on the LT) - 185 is your modifier around LE.

KRB's and SA are important modifier, but perhaps there is more that we don't really see on the individual stat screen. Perhaps what you are *buying* is a lot more with your player than just a few less sacks or a few more KRB's. Perhaps you are vastly improving your overall running game and your overall passing game. For instance this similar scenario happened to my MP IHOF team. Where I lost my stud RT. In games this year where he was there, I had the top running game in the league. But since he's been out, I can't get 3.5 YPC. Coincidence? Maybe. But I suspect, my running game would be happier, no matter where I ran the ball, if my stud RT was in the game.

No stats or testing to back this up. So I apologize for that. Just a theory.That is exactly what i meant in my example:

Offensive line and FB dice roll/ratings moddifiers:
............LT-40%
............LG-40%
FB-10%...C-6%
............RT-3%
............LT-1%

Let's apply it to some players ratings:
Supossing i have these players:
LT- (80 Run blocking)
LG- (50 Run blocking)
C- (60 Run blocking)
RT- (70 Run blocking)
RG- (40 Run blocking)
F- (60 Run blocking)

Total play run blocking:
LT*40% + LG*40% + C*6% + RT*3% + RG*1% + FB*10% =

80*(40/100) + 50*(40/100) + 60*(6/100) + 70*(3/100) + 40*(1/100) + 60*(10/100) = 64.1 is the total offensive run blocking abillity.

Now do the same for blocking strengh. Then i would do the same for the defensive line, then compare both results and give the result to the running hole creation. Of course after that, you need to do othe rmatch operations having on mind the RB, LBs and secondary to know where is the RB stopped.

[Celeval]

So, what does a "quality" lineman get you? Over 16 games, you get 6 fewer sacks, and 10 more key run blocks.I'll bite into this a bit more, again using this season's IHOF stats.

The 10th worst qualifying pass blocker is my RT Victor Owens, 6 sacks in 315 pass plays (1.9 SPct). There are a large number of players with 0 allowed, but lets go with the 10th best T who has allowed at least one sack: Howard Bingham, Paris - 2 sacks in 370 plays for 0.5 SPct.

The average IHOF team is on pace for approximately 500 pass attempts. The difference between those two tackles is (1.4% x 500 = ) 7 sacks on the season. The average sack is for 6.3 yards (3785 total yards, 300 sacks), and the average Yards/Attempt for a pass is 7.06 yards. So each sack is approximately a 13 to 13.5 yard swing in field position. Those seven sacks are worth just over 100 yards of total offense on the season.

Now, KRBs. Harder to put a specific stat on, since we don't have stats on it, but still a strawman: the 10th best qualifying blocker is (breakout POY candidate) T Paul Ladner of Fairbanks - 24/56 for 42.8%. Keeping it in position, the 10th worst T is Justin Washington (OBX) - 9/37 for 24.3%. So an 18% difference.

Let's assume an even breakdown of KROs across the line - not something we can necessarily do, but for this purpose we're just looking for the average # of KROs per player. The average IHOF team is up for 475 rushing attempts over the course of the season. That puts the average starting lineman somewhere around 75-80 KROs over the course of the season (guesstimate, maybe a bit under, but passes the smell test glancing at some various 16-game linemen on passing/rushing teams.

That 18% difference is a difference of 14 KRBs - assuming an extra 5 ypc for a successful KRB (as was the case in my recent loss), we're looking at around an extra 80 yards/season.

Purely based on yards - a quality season from a single OL ends up worth about 200 yards over the course of the season between passing and rushing. So the difference between, say, Ray Ray Lyle (on pace for 2000 yards) and Gerald Harris (on pace for 1750 yards).

[MrBigglesworth]

So each sack is approximately a 13 to 13.5 yard swing in field position. Those seven sacks are worth just over 100 yards of total offense on the season.
Love your breakdowns, just wanted to point out though that sacks are more likely to occur on longer pass plays, as are hurries (maybe two hurries per sack given up? everyone forgets hurries!), so the swing could be greater.

[Celeval]

Now where this gets interesting is when you put it across the board. If you look at your OL as a whole - those numbers get much larger. An additional 1.4% of sacks times 5 linemen, and that's a sack 7% of the time - once every 14 attempts. Over the course of the season, that's 35 sacks for around 475 yards.

That turns Nate Sutter's excellent 2009 season from:

62% completion, 3562 yards, 33 TD

to:

55% completion, 2750 yards, 30 TD

That's from 4th in completion percentage to 28th, and 9th in yardage to 23rd.

[Celeval]

Love your breakdowns, just wanted to point out though that sacks are more likely to occur on longer pass plays, as are hurries (maybe two hurries per sack given up? everyone forgets hurries!), so the swing could be greater.Hard to determine the sacks on longer pass plays. I'd love to include hurries - since a hurry is an automatic incomplete pass - but they're not tracked back to linemen. It'd be a nice way to show the value of a defensive lineman, tho.

[Celeval]

55% completion, 2750 yards, 30 TD

That's from 4th in completion percentage to 28th, and 9th in yardage to 23rd.Note: I should be using net yardage here (yards - sack yardage), but I don't have that handy - the total swing should still be the same, even if it's 3500 - 2750 or 3100 - 2450.

[MrBigglesworth]

I'd love to include hurries - since a hurry is an automatic incomplete pass - but they're not tracked back to linemen. It'd be a nice way to show the value of a defensive lineman, tho.
You could estimate the number of hurries by the number of hurries per sack on your team. Like if your team has 30 sack and 60 hurries, you might be able to assume that if a lineman gives up 3 sacks, he gave up an average of 6 hurries.

[Celeval]

damnit, just lost a post.

The precis of the running version:

18% difference in KRB success. Say an average of 5 ypc extra on those additional rushes - could be underestimating, since the 30, 40+ yard rushes always have KRBs - thats .18*5 = 0.9 ypc additional to any rusher going from a well-below-average line to a well-above average one.

That's taking oft-injured but very good when healthy Raymond Flowers (222-1015, 4.57 ypc) and turning him into Corey Dakota (245-897, 3.66 ypc); or a decent back like Nicholas Dutra (303-1174, 3.87 ypc) and making him Dwight Foreman (242-1149, 4.75).

If your running back averages 4 ypc over 300 carries, those 18% additional KRBs means you'll hit the same yardage in 55 less carries; or alternatively, the same number of carries give you about 270 more yards.

[Celeval]

You could estimate the number of hurries by the number of hurries per sack on your team. Like if your team has 30 sack and 60 hurries, you might be able to assume that if a lineman gives up 3 sacks, he gave up an average of 6 hurries.That's assuming the constant is there for an OL... that a different breakdown of Pass Strength/Pass Technique might result in a 1/1 or 3/1 balance, even if it averages out to 2/1 across the board.

(FYI this season, 1335 hurries and 600 sacks, so it's somewhere around there. Also means that approx. 29% of incompletions are due to hurries by the defensive line.)

[Cotton]

Kneeldowns are also counted as rushes.
And I've seen defenders 'slash right through so-and-so to break up the play' on kneel downs. I swear. And it wasn't Brian Orlacher.

[stevew]

Do hurries ever result in interceptions. I'm guessing not, but it is something that I always worry about when i play a pisspoor pass blocking line. If the QB takes a lot of pressure, he is getting hit more, and having his time to make good reads interrupted. Granted, I'm probably reading way too much into it, I thought timing was pretty important for a QB for a long time, until recently discovering that it is borderline useless.

[Warhammer]

damnit, just lost a post.

The precis of the running version:

18% difference in KRB success. Say an average of 5 ypc extra on those additional rushes - could be underestimating, since the 30, 40+ yard rushes always have KRBs - thats .18*5 = 0.9 ypc additional to any rusher going from a well-below-average line to a well-above average one.

That's taking oft-injured but very good when healthy Raymond Flowers (222-1015, 4.57 ypc) and turning him into Corey Dakota (245-897, 3.66 ypc); or a decent back like Nicholas Dutra (303-1174, 3.87 ypc) and making him Dwight Foreman (242-1149, 4.75).

If your running back averages 4 ypc over 300 carries, those 18% additional KRBs means you'll hit the same yardage in 55 less carries; or alternatively, the same number of carries give you about 270 more yards.

I'll say this, Corey Dakota does very well for the line he is running behind!

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Although hurries are not tracked to certain lineman as a stat, you have to believe that the quality of the lineman affects this. Although we can't track it, that is an additional advantage to a team with a better lineman.

Also, I don't think you can just look at yardage as the determination of the effect. Sacks kill drives, take you out of field goal position, result in longer pass plays/interceptions, having to punt deep in your end and thus giving the other side an automatic FG, etc. So for instance, to me 7 sacks more are 7 drives that were probably ended prematurely. Seeing how many games come down to 3-7 point margin of victories, an extra sack every other game or so could result in a loss (and when playoff spots and divison titles often come down to one or two games in a 16 game season, that becomes pretty important). And that is not even taking into account KRBs and hurries. It just seems like the real effect is hard to statistically measure. The best way would be to watch your games, see when the sacks and KRBs occur and what effect they have right then and there in game points wise.

[QuikSand]

So, what does a "quality" lineman get you?

Well, since the IHOF has been used as an example inn this thread, I thought I'd share a recent finding when analysing my last two seasons in that league.

Chesapeake is a pass-first team, but we do have real talent in the running game. I drafted a RB with a top pick two seasons ago (for better or for worse) and he has been successful, in general. With both him and my veteran backup in place for both of the last two years, they seem to make a fair comparison -- if anything, we'd expect the young RB to improve from year one to year two.

However, my OL went through a big change in that same period. We lost one multi-year starter to free agency, another star to a season-ending injury, and another top starter for half of the latest season. Shuffling to patch up the OL, we ended up with substantially lesser performance in season two than in season one. Evidence:


SEASON ONE:
Aggregate run blocking: 117/350 KRBs, or 33.4%

SEASON TWO:
Aggregate run blocking: 93/336 KRBs, or 27.6%


So, for whatever reason, we basically just lost about 25 key run blocks over the course of the season. Our pass blocking, at least as measured by sacks yielded, was about the same.

What happened to our running game?


SEASON ONE:
Chesapeake Chitterlings Team Rank
Rushes 380 29 (T)
Rushing Yards 1693 26
Yards Per Carry 4.45 3

SEASON TWO:
Chesapeake Chitterlings Team Rank
Rushes 370 32
Rushing Yards 1330 32
Yards Per Carry 3.59 29


Again - we don't run that much, so the total yardage doesn't say the whole story. But our yards per carry dropped from 4.45 (in the top three) to 3.59 (in the bottom four) in one quick season.

Just looking at our top back, the overpaid part-timer Dwight Foreman, here's what he yielded in his two seasons:


SEASON ONE:
Rushing Pos Att Yards Y/Att TD
44 Foreman RB 242 1149 4.74 9

SEASON TWO:
Rushing Pos Att Yards Y/Att TD
44 Foreman RB 236 866 3.66 5


Basically the same contrast. A huge difference in results, and it's awfully hard to attribute it to anything but the big dropoff in performance of the OL.

[MrBigglesworth]

QS, for your starters that started every game both years, how did their individual performances change, if any? I would think that in Season 1 the total run blocking would be better, so if the rest of the line has an influence and it's not just a 1-on-1 thing for the KRB, you would expect the individual performances of your good linemen to go down.

[QuikSand]

In the case above, my left tackle was almost exactly as effective in both years - but he was the only completely stable part of the two seasons. My left guard for hurt and missed year two, my center got hurt and missed half of that year, and the utility OL (backup center) I used mostly at RT in year one moved in to play a combination of C/RG in year two, while a couple of new faces split time at RT.

For the players who played significant time both years:

LT - 23%, 23%
C - 35%, 33% (9 games)
utility OL - 36%, 20%

Only the utility guy had a big change in his performance -- he's a decent player, but has been asked to play pretty much every spot on the line along the way for us. He did better in run blocking at RT than he did this year playing on the interior, for what it's worth -- and he was equally effective against the pass rush both years.

No easy apples-to-apples there, I fear.