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Simming into the Future with Baseball Mogul 2013

One of the best features of Baseball Mogul 2013 is that it is possible to simulate decades into the future in a matter of a couple of hours. I used Mogul’s simulation tool to advance Major League Baseball to the 2038 season, offering a chance to examine the career paths of current players and see who the game thinks might end up in the Hall of Fame. The game has an extremely generous Hall of Fame, as 61 active players were enshrined in the virtual Cooperstown between 2012 and 2038. Let’s take a look the list and reflect on some of the more interesting inclusions (listed in order of HoF induction, starting with the 2038 inductee).

  • Cole, Gerrit
  • Gonzalez, Carlos
  • Cron, C.J.
  • Stanton, Giancarlo
  • Kershaw, Clayton
  • Bruce, Jay
  • Jansen, Kenley
  • Darvish, Yu
  • Hosmer, Eric
  • Teheran, Julio
  • Lawrie, Brett
  • Middlebrooks, Will
  • Markel, Parker
  • Latos, Mat
  • Bumgarner, Madison
  • Kimbrel, Craig
  • Feliz, Neftali
  • Castro, Starlin
  • Hanson, Tommy
  • Cain, Matt
  • Votto, Joey
  • Lester, Jon
  • Longoria, Evan
  • Reyes, Jose
  • Hernandez, Felix
  • Gallardo, Yovani
  • Weaver, Jered
  • Lincecum, Tim
  • Pedroia, Dustin
  • Verlander, Justin
  • Mauer, Joe
  • Hamels, Cole
  • Cano, Robinson
  • Fielder, Prince
  • Greinke, Zack
  • Dunn, Adam
  • Lee, Cliff
  • Braun, Ryan
  • Cabrera, Miguel
  • Young, Michael
  • Pujols, Albert
  • Carpenter, Chris
  • Gonzalez, Adrian
  • Sabathia, C.C.
  • Halladay, Roy
  • Rolen, Scott
  • Rodriguez, Alex
  • Rivera, Mariano
  • Helton, Todd
  • Jeter, Derek
  • Tejada, Miguel
  • Suzuki, Ichiro
  • Jones, Chipper
  • Hoffman, Trevor
  • Thome, Jim
  • Guerrero, Vladimir
  • Palmeiro, Rafael
  • Ramirez, Manny
  • Rodriguez, Ivan
  • Pettitte, Andy
  • Vizquel, Omar


Despite the fact that I enjoyed this game, paying sustained attention to the game’s top players as they close their careers reveals just how poorly this game handles aging superstars. In addition, Baseball Mogul allows for a large degree of randomness, so your simulation results might look totally different. Still, one of the key measures of success for a text sim is the ability to generate realistic stats and career paths. There’s lots of fodder for discussion in the data the game generates.

Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Tim Lincecum all enter the HoF after pitching for the Giants into their late 30s. They each win more than 200 games and lead the Giants to a World Series win in 2023.

No active pitchers win 300 games, although Justin Verlander ends up with 298. Amazingly, he remains unsigned at age 40 after posting a 3.39 ERA over 185 innings. He spends 2024 in the independent leagues, waiting for a shot at those last two wins.

Prince Fielder spends the last two years of his mega-deal in Detroit as a part-time player battered by injuries. But Detroit won’t regret the deal, as the Tigers win two World Series rings with Fielder.

Adam Dunn bounces back from his miserable 2011 season to become a useful player, hitting 150 more home runs and retiring with 515.

Albert Pujols suffers a catastrophic ankle injury at the beginning of the 2014 season and never plays in more than 26 games in a season again. He spends the last part of his contract putting up horrible numbers in AAA.

Yu Darvish makes the HoF with a pedestrian 4.14 career ERA. He wins more than 200 games and records more than 2,500 strikeouts, but loses his dominance around age 30.



Want to know more about Baseball Mogul 2013? Read our review.

Giancarlo Stanton spends his entire career in Miami, piling up 641 career home runs and displaying impressive power and patience through the end of his career. He posts a 1.042 OPS in spring training at age 40 but is still released and never catches on in the majors again. He hits 56 home runs and drives in 157 runs in the independent leagues at age 40 before leaving baseball for good.

Starlin Castro finished his illustrious career with a .315 batting average and 2994 hits. However, the Cubs never win the World Series, and as of 2038, their streak stands at 130 years.

Meanwhile, the Yankees plunge off a cliff and lose 100 games in the 2016 season after the implosion of Michael Pineda. The AL East becomes Boston’s division, as the Red Sox appear in four World Series in eight years, winning two.

Nobody can topple Bonds, Aaron and Ruth at the top of the career home run leaderboard. A-Rod comes closest, retiring with 693.

Kenley Jansen retires with 435 saves and the record for career strikeouts per nine innings: 13.54. Craig Kimbrel isn’t far behind at 12.86 K/9.

Bryce Harper plays until age 41 and isn’t yet eligible for the HoF in 2038, but he looks like a shoo-in with his 486 career homers and two MVP awards. The Nats’ other young star, Stephen Strasburg, wins 182 games and retires with a 3.45 career ERA and 2866 strikeouts as well as a 3.5:1 K:BB ratio.

My beloved Seattle Mariners finally win the World Series … in 2035. Mark your calendars, Mariners fans. It’s going to be awesome.

What do you think, OS readers? Does Baseball Mogul’s simulation engine pass the eye test? Which Hall of Famers are the biggest surprises, and who are you surprised to see miss the cut?


Member Comments
# 1 bkrich83 @ 04/28/12 01:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatriotJames
OOTP is better
You've spent time with OOTP 13 and BM '13?
 
# 2 jasontoddwhitt @ 04/28/12 02:14 PM
Haven't played BM in a long time, and the GUI still looks the same.
 
# 3 24 @ 04/28/12 06:57 PM
I'm curious how the results from OOTP would compare. Always find these simulations into the future very interesting
 
# 4 thbends @ 04/28/12 10:54 PM
Did the Rangers ever win a World Series?
 
# 5 joshuar9476 @ 04/30/12 07:33 AM
Jay Bruce, Mat Latos, Joey Votto, and Scott Rolen (though no Cueto) ... I'll take that!

Quote:
However, the Cubs never win the World Series, and as of 2038, their streak stands at 130 years
.... Awesome!
 
# 6 Perfect Zero @ 04/30/12 10:54 AM
Darvish and Feliz, but no Hamilton or Kinsler. Interesting...
 

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